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高鑫零售(6808.HK):新管理层开启三年调改及高派息策略
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-14 21:26
Core Viewpoint - High Xin Retail reported a revenue of 30.5 billion yuan for 1HFY26, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, and a net loss of 120 million yuan, aligning with profit warning expectations. The performance was pressured by intensified market competition and a weak overall consumption environment. The new management outlined a three-year reform plan focusing on supply chain, store, and organizational changes, with a commitment from major shareholder Dehong Capital regarding cash flow and shareholder returns. The company declared an interim dividend of 0.085 HKD per share, with an expected annual dividend yield of approximately 9%, highlighting its defensive positioning in the consumer sector while awaiting the impact of reform measures on profitability [1][2][3]. Revenue and Sales Performance - The merchandise sales revenue was 29.08 billion yuan, down 12.4% year-on-year, primarily due to increased market competition and weak consumer spending leading to lower average transaction values. Same-store sales declined by 11.7%. Online channels showed resilience, with online order volume increasing by 7.4%, contributing to a 2.1% rise in online same-store sales. Rental income was 1.4 billion yuan, down 7.0% year-on-year, affected by rent reductions and ongoing tenant structure optimization. Membership fees generated 20 million yuan in revenue, up 28.6% year-on-year. The total number of hypermarket stores decreased by 3 to 462, while medium-sized supermarkets decreased by 1 to 32, with M membership stores remaining at 7. The company plans to actively seek new store openings while maintaining a stable total store count [1][2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 1HFY26 increased by 0.7 percentage points to 25.3%, attributed to the gradual elimination of long-tail SKUs, product mix optimization, and enhanced private label penetration. The sales expense ratio rose by 1.9 percentage points to 23.9%, while the management expense ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3%. The increase in sales expense ratio was due to operational leverage from declining revenue, while management expenses remained stable due to regional structure optimization and strict personnel cost control. Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 5.2%, and net profit margin decreased by 1.0 percentage points to -1.0% [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company announced a three-year strategic plan aimed at driving transformation. Key initiatives include: 1. Product optimization through national procurement to reduce costs, with a focus on private labels that have seen over 50% sales growth in more than 50 categories. The goal is for private label contributions to reach 10% in three years. 2. Store transformation towards community life centers, with plans to complete over 30 store renovations in FY26 and over 200 by the end of the next fiscal year. 3. Enhancing online and offline synergy through the establishment of front warehouses, with plans to increase online sales contribution to 40-50% over the next three years [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Given the ongoing intense market competition and the transitional phase involving short-term investments, the recovery of profitability may be delayed. The projected net profit for FY26-28 is 40 million, 440 million, and 710 million yuan, respectively. The target price is set at 2.18 HKD, based on a 45x PE for FY27E, reflecting a premium for the company's high dividend yield [3].