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亚朵(ATAT):Q4零售增速、利润率提升好于预期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-03-26 13:06
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating significant growth in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q4 2024 earnings with revenue of 2.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%, and a net profit of 330 million yuan, up 50.5% [2]. - The Q4 RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) showed a narrowing decline, with a decrease of 5.9% quarter-on-quarter, indicating potential recovery in 2025 [3]. - The retail business outperformed expectations, with a GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) of 2.59 billion yuan for the full year, reflecting a growth of 128% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 revenue reached 2.08 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit also at 330 million yuan, reflecting a 49.9% increase [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was 440 million yuan, marking a 76.5% increase [2]. - The company achieved a hotel gross margin of 37.5%, up 7.6 percentage points, driven by asset-light strategies and efficiency improvements [4]. Business Segments - The retail segment's GMV for Q4 was 910 million yuan, a 125% increase, with online sales accounting for over 90% [4]. - The company opened 111 new hotels in Q4, totaling 471 new openings for the year, a 63% increase [4]. Future Outlook - The company expects a slowdown in supply growth in 2025, with improved demand driven by policy stimuli, leading to quarterly improvements [3]. - Forecasted adjusted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.66 billion yuan, 2.08 billion yuan, and 2.61 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 14, and 11 [5].