煤炭装卸服务

Search documents
天风证券:给予秦港股份买入评级
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-10 06:10
Core Viewpoint - Qin Port Co., Ltd. has shown a recovery in throughput volume, with a positive outlook for profitability, leading to a "buy" rating from Tianfeng Securities [1]. Group 1: Throughput Volume Performance - In Q2 2025, Qin Port's throughput volume increased by 9% year-on-year, reversing a decline seen in Q1 2025 where it dropped by 3% [2]. - The recovery in coal throughput was driven by a rebound in coal transport volume from the Daqin Railway, which improved from -5.6% in Q1 to 1.4% in Q2 [2]. - Metal ore throughput also saw a recovery, correlating with a rise in national iron ore import growth from -8% in Q1 to 1.9% in Q2 [2]. Group 2: Future Growth Potential - Qin Port's coal throughput is expected to remain stable, as it is closely linked to Daqin Railway's coal transport volume, which has maintained a ratio of approximately 54% from 2014 to 2024 [3]. - The company plans to enhance market marketing and optimize cargo structure to create space for quality cargo increments [3]. - Metal ore throughput is projected to continue growing, supported by a historical upward trend in the ratio of Qin Port's throughput to national iron ore imports, which has been around 11% from 2014 to 2024 [3]. Group 3: Financial Health - From 2020 to 2024, Qin Port's capital expenditure has decreased, with fixed asset value increasing by 5% and intangible asset value by 4% [4]. - The company has seen a significant increase in cash and long-term deposits, growing by 57% to 5.6 billion yuan, while interest-bearing debt has decreased by 26% to 4.9 billion yuan, resulting in a decline in the debt-to-asset ratio to 27% [4]. Group 4: Profit Forecast Adjustments - Due to a decline in revenue per ton expected in 2024, the forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 has been revised down to 1.76 billion yuan from the previous estimate of 1.99 billion yuan [5]. - Profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been introduced at 1.84 billion yuan and 1.96 billion yuan, respectively, while maintaining a "buy" rating [5].