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特步国际(01368):主品牌稳健增长,户外品牌势头强劲
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-18 09:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][25] Core Insights - The main brand of the company shows steady growth, while the outdoor brand is experiencing strong momentum. The children's segment is growing faster than the adult segment, with footwear outperforming apparel. The newly introduced brand, Saucony, has seen over 20% growth in Q2 2025 and over 30% growth in the first half of the year [6][5] - The company is focusing on optimizing its multi-brand matrix and has initiated a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) transformation, which is expected to enhance market responsiveness and efficiency [6][5] - The financial forecast indicates a projected net profit of 1.37 billion RMB for FY2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 10 [6][16] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 14.346 billion RMB - FY2024: 13.577 billion RMB - FY2025E: 14.636 billion RMB - FY2026E: 15.759 billion RMB - FY2027E: 16.911 billion RMB - Net profit projections for the same period are: - FY2023: 1.034 billion RMB - FY2024: 1.303 billion RMB - FY2025E: 1.368 billion RMB - FY2026E: 1.496 billion RMB - FY2027E: 1.633 billion RMB - The gross margin is expected to improve from 42% in FY2023 to 45% in FY2027 [6][16] Retail Performance - The retail performance for 2023 shows a year-on-year growth of approximately 20% in Q1, high double digits in Q2, and over 30% in Q4, with a consistent discount level of 7-7.5 [15][6] - The inventory turnover ratio is healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of about 4 to 4.5 months at the end of Q2 2025 [6][15] Brand Strategy - The company is focusing on its core running products, which have shown double-digit growth, while casual products have experienced some fluctuations. The newly launched products have received positive market feedback [6][5] - The DTC transformation is expected to enhance the company's ability to adapt to market changes and consumer demands, with plans to open larger stores and new store formats [6][5]