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汉德资本蔡洪平炮轰人形机器人:是“大泡沫”与“骗局”,实为商业驱动的资本“作秀”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-07 13:54
Core Viewpoint - The speech at the "HeXun Finance China 2025 Conference" argues that humanoid robots are a significant bubble and a deception, suggesting that the concept is fundamentally flawed [1][4]. Group 1: Humanoid Robots - The speaker, Cai Hongping, asserts that humanoid robots serve primarily as a spectacle rather than a functional replacement for humans, questioning the rationale behind their development [3][7]. - Cai emphasizes that current humanoid robots lack true autonomy and are often remote-controlled, which undermines their perceived capabilities [4][8]. - He critiques the energy consumption of humanoid robots, noting that even small robots from Boston Dynamics can deplete their energy in about 20 minutes, indicating inefficiency [3][7]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Technologies - The discussion includes a comparison with Elon Musk's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, which effectively responds to specific environments using cameras and algorithms, highlighting that human capabilities in physical, emotional, and creative aspects are unmatched [4][8]. - Cai believes that the development of humanoid robots for complex, interactive, and emotional scenarios is unrealistic in the near future, estimating that it may take at least ten years to achieve any meaningful progress [4][8]. Group 3: Practical Applications of Robotics - The speaker advocates for the use of robots in dangerous, repetitive, or labor-intensive tasks, such as firefighting, underwater cleaning, and high-altitude work, where specialized robots have already demonstrated value [4][9]. - Cai is preparing to invest in a project focused on underwater cleaning for large ships and oil platforms, showcasing a practical application of robotics that aligns with his views on effective robot deployment [4][9]. Group 4: Critique of Investment in Humanoid Robots - Cai expresses skepticism about the substantial capital investment in humanoid robots, estimated between 500 billion to 600 billion, and challenges the notion that anyone will profit from this sector within the next decade [5][9]. - He suggests that the perception of humanoid robots as intelligent beings is misleading, arguing that they do not possess the capabilities of actual humans [5][9].
汉德资本蔡洪平:“人形机器人”是伪命题,机器人真正的出路是替代人类完成高危、复杂工作
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-07 13:54
专题:2025《中国企业家》影响力企业家年会 蔡洪平首先指出,现代人类,是宇宙、地球、人类经过上亿年进化以后的天使级的仙人和了不起的劳动 体,叫"万物之灵"。"我们跳高,只吃一顿饭可以跳2米4,精细到很深的地步,我们可以做再精细的细 胞治疗或者天体物理,都是我们人类做的。为什么就和人体过不去呢?我不知道。" 为什么机器可以帮助人、要替代人呢?在他看来,主要的功能就是"作秀"。 蔡洪平进一步解释到,关于能耗,机器人和人都是有能耗的,而Boston Dynamics小机器人大概翻20分 钟,能量就消耗掉了。他表示,可以理解在人形机器人做表演的时候,厂商想开发别的产品,但是"人 形"是不work的。 另外,他还指出,人形机器人不是Automachine,真正的人形机器人替代人是Autonomous的行动,是自 主的行动,它达不到这个水平。"现在全是作秀,没有脑子的,全是后面遥控的知道吗?为什么没人戳 穿那个把戏呢?我不知道,这是不是商业在驱动。" 其次,蔡洪平提到了埃隆·马斯克的FSD这类专注于特定场景(如自动驾驶)的技术,已能通过摄像 头、算力与算法实现对环境的有效响应。但是,人类是亿万年进化而来的杰出创造,在体 ...