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卓胜微(300782):利润压力高于预期,下调至中性,期待2H25后利润回升
BOCOM International· 2025-04-01 07:57
Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of the company to "Neutral" from "Buy" due to higher-than-expected profit pressure and competitive challenges in the RF front-end market [7][12][13]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant profit pressure, particularly from its new chip production line, which has led to a forecasted decline in net profit for 2024 and 2025. The management anticipates a recovery in profits in the second half of 2025 as production stabilizes [7][8]. - The report highlights opportunities in low-power short-range communication products driven by generative AI and the upcoming WiFi-7 standard, although competition remains a concern [7][8]. - Revenue and EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards, reflecting the increased cost pressures and competitive landscape [7][9]. Financial Overview - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,378 million RMB, with a growth rate of 19.1%. However, growth is expected to slow significantly in 2024 to 2.5% [6][14]. - Net profit is expected to decline sharply to 402 million RMB in 2024, down from 1,122 million RMB in 2023, with further declines to 348 million RMB in 2025 [6][14]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected revenues of 4,862 million RMB for 2025 and 6,019 million RMB for 2026, with corresponding EPS estimates of 0.65 RMB and 1.86 RMB [6][9][14]. Market Performance - The stock price closed at 80.15 RMB with a target price of 86.00 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 7.3% [1][12]. - The company has faced a significant drop in stock performance, with a year-to-date change of -10.65% [4][8]. Competitive Landscape - The management acknowledges challenges from both international and domestic competitors, particularly in the RF front-end market, which is impacting the company's market share and pricing power [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product diversification and the potential for new product lines to maintain production capacity and competitiveness [7][8].