Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In June, the pig market will enter the stage of accelerated weight reduction and inventory clearance. However, the market support in the first week of weight reduction is limited, leading to passive over - stocking by some enterprises and an accelerated decline in spot prices. The de - stocking in the summer weak - demand stage may last longer than expected, pressuring the July and September contracts. - Many enterprises have announced a policy to ban the resale of second - fattened pigs. The inventory clearance in the third quarter is conducive to the repair of long - term expectations. If the average weight per pig decreases by 10KG, the pork supply in the fourth quarter will drop by 6 - 8% with the same basic inventory. The January contract, a pure peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, has a consumption increase of over 30% compared to the third quarter, and its valuation will be reset. The liquidity of the fourth - quarter contract will increase, and the medium - term expectation turns stronger. Attention should be paid to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 13,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,140 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2507 contract is 13,090 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Pig 2509 contract is 13,460 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Pig 2511 contract is 13,335 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2507 contract is 5,827 lots, an increase of 3,176 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 16,017 lots, a decrease of 296 lots from the previous day; the Pig 2509 contract has a trading volume of 26,856 lots, an increase of 11,919 lots, and an open interest of 79,821 lots, an increase of 2,234 lots; the Pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 5,203 lots, an increase of 1,757 lots, and an open interest of 37,784 lots, an increase of 332 lots [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2507 contract is 910 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Pig 2509 contract basis is 540 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Pig 2511 contract basis is 665 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton year - on - year. The 7 - 9 spread is - 370 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton year - on - year, and the 9 - 11 spread is 125 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].