申万一级房地产指数相对值(相对沪深300)
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房地产相对指数趋势跟踪模型效果点评
Tai Ping Yang Zheng Quan· 2025-06-06 02:30
Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Neutral," indicating that the overall return is expected to be between -5% and 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [12]. Core Insights - The model assumes that the price movements of the underlying assets exhibit good local continuity, with trend reversals being shorter in duration compared to trend continuations [3]. - The model's annualized return is 2.22%, with a volatility of 23.52% and a maximum drawdown of 17.24% [3]. - The model performed well during specific periods, showing positive returns, but struggled to achieve cumulative gains during other intervals [4]. Summary by Sections Model Overview - The model is designed to track the relative value of the Shenwan Level 1 Real Estate Index against the CSI 300 [3]. - It uses a specific algorithm to determine trend direction based on price movements and volatility [3]. Performance Evaluation - The model's overall return rate during the tracking period from March 7, 2023, to March 18, 2025, is assessed, with significant fluctuations noted [4]. - The model is not suitable for direct application to the Shenwan Level 1 Real Estate Index relative value due to its performance limitations [4].