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总体看供需依旧维持弱势 预计PVC期货将底部震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-20 23:40
Core Viewpoint - The PVC futures market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with a weekly drop of 1.52%, while the overall supply-demand dynamics remain weak, indicating a potential bottoming phase in the market [1][3][4] Market Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the main PVC futures contract closed at 4937 yuan/ton, with a weekly trading range between 4980 yuan/ton and 5027 yuan/ton, and a lowest point of 4922 yuan/ton [1] - The trading volume increased by 17,071 contracts compared to the previous week [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The downstream operating rate for PVC decreased by 1.77% to 41.11%, with pipe manufacturing down by 1.83% to 37.67% and profile manufacturing down by 0.2% to 34.55% [2] - PVC social inventory rose by 2.89% to 591,800 tons compared to the previous week, but showed a year-on-year decrease of 7.66% [2] - The production of PVC last week was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 0.37 tons or 0.80% from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.62% [3] Institutional Perspectives - Southwest Futures indicates that the PVC market is likely to enter a phase of consolidation due to an oversupply situation, with limited downward potential [3] - Hualian Futures notes that the supply side is facing challenges due to maintenance of production facilities, while demand remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector [4] - The cost side is influenced by the prices of raw materials, with current prices for calcium carbide and ethylene at 4850-4950 yuan/ton and 4900-5100 yuan/ton respectively [3]