随后，金元期货能化研究员陈婧分享了当前反内卷的格局下的PVC基本面情况以及未来发展方向，PVC新投产能如期而至，检修处于低位， 库存压力较高，房地产行业持续低迷，整个基本面压力较大，但明后年随着未来新投产能压力减轻，且出口至印度、东南亚、中亚、中东、 非洲等地区需求上升，从宏观角度当前政府逐步向市场注入流动性，促进消费等措施，PVC的价格仍未来可期。 "当前，树脂产业链正面临复杂多变的市场环境，价格波动加剧，风险管理需求日益凸显。期货工具与实体经济的深度融合，是提升产业链 韧性和稳定性的关键路径。"金元期货总经理助理金建涛致辞表示，本次会议旨在为产业链上下游企业搭建一个高规格的交流平台，共同探 讨如何运用月均结算价等创新衍生品工具，管理价格风险、优化经营模式，以此来助力产业企业把握市场脉搏，凝聚行业共识，共同构筑一 条更具竞争力和抗风险能力的树脂产业链。 日前，线型低密度聚乙烯、聚氯乙烯、聚丙烯月均价期货（下称"三个化工品月均价期货"已在大连商品交易所上市。这是大商所上市的首批 现金交割期货，也是境内商品期货市场的首批月均价期货。会议期间，大商所专家就刚上市的线型低密度聚乙烯、聚氯乙烯和聚丙烯月均价 合约进行 ...

期货日报网讯(记者刘威魁)在全球经济下行与产能过剩的双重压力持续深化的背景下，化工企业面临价格波动剧烈、贸易壁垒升级、资金链 紧张等多重挑战。如何在转型浪潮中行稳致远，成为摆在石油化工行业面前的现实课题。11月27日，由金元期货股份有限公司主办、期货日 报、产业服务联盟、广东蓝航塑胶有限公司、广州汇诚化工有限公司、佛山市顺德区塑料协会协办、大连商品交易所支持的"DCE.产业行 ——聚焦月均新工具，共筑树脂产业链"会议在广州成功举办，吸引了来自雄塑集团、浙江中菁、钢联能化、蓝航塑胶、汇诚化工87家产业 企业及机构的近200名业内人士参与。众多与会嘉宾围绕当前行业变动、产业企业如何通过期货工具构建更具韧性的经营防线等重点议题展 开讨论，彰显期货市场在服务实体经济等方面的重要作用。 紧接着，广州国际贸易集团有限公司董事长张毅介绍了塑料的产业史是如何从量的跃迁到失衡的，分析了当前低毛利与需求有天花板的产业 困局，介绍了东南亚地区在家电行业对塑料的需求、拉美、非洲对汽车塑料的需求等全球产能与需求错配以及全球范围内出海机会。 等嘉宾围绕当前市场低迷的原因以及下游生产型企业的转型方案，行业高供应、高库存与弱需求的博弈中应如 ...

能化板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251128 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 鲍玉虹 从业资讯证号：F03149670 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 4 截至11月25日一周内，俄罗斯海运原油买家进口量较前一周减少23%。随着美国制裁生效，印度和土耳其等主要买家纷纷削减采购量,全球范 围内，俄罗斯原油运抵外国港口的数量在11月下旬达到峰值，自11月21日美国制裁生效后持续下滑。新制裁措施针对俄罗斯两大石油公司-- 卢克石油和俄罗斯石油公司--这两家企业约占该国原油出口总量的一半。 聚酯板块数据周报 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 据央视新闻报道，当地时间27日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，本周晚些时候，乌克兰团队将与美方代表继续推进日内瓦会议成果的落实，致 力于将其转化为引领乌克兰实现和平与安全保障的具体形式。 2 据央视新闻报道，当地时间11月27日，俄罗斯总统普京在吉尔吉斯斯坦首都比什凯克表示，美方代表团将于下周到访莫斯科。此前，对于 "28点"新计划，俄方一直认为其可以成为开展谈判的基础。但俄罗斯外交部副部长26日的表态却明确提出，俄方在当前关键问题上"不会 作出任何让步或放 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年11月28日 【行情分析】 11月28日，新增茂名石化LDPE等检修装置，塑料开工率下跌至88%左右，目前开工率处于中性水 平。截至11月28日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.39个百分点至44.3%，农膜进入旺季尾声，农膜订 单开始下降，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存略有下降，包装膜订单同样小幅下降，整体PE 下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。11月石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高 水平。成本端，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造 成影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈 达成可能性不大，原油价格低位震荡。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE和70 万吨/年的中石油广西石化近期投产。塑料开工率略有下降。农膜进入旺季尾声，订单稳定，旺季成 色不及预期，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求开始减少，农膜价格开始下跌，预计后续下游开 工率下降。下游企业采购意愿不足，刚需为主，贸易商对后市谨慎，普遍降价积极出货。国家发展 改革委会同有关 ...

证券之星消息，11月28日塑料板块较上一交易日上涨1.12%，道明光学领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3888.6，上涨0.34%。深证成指报收于12984.08，上涨0.85%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002632 | 道明光学 | 12.44 | 9.99% | 10.78万 | | 1.34亿 | | 000973 | 佛塑科技 | 13.78 | 8.50% | 129.77万 | | 17.47亿 | | 001359 | 平安电工 | 59.52 | 5.53% | 4.59万 | | 2.70亿 | | 301237 | 和顺科技 | 50.83 | 5.00% | 1.93万 | | 9754.04万 | | 301565 | 中仑新材 | 27.60 | 4.90% | 11.99万 | | 3.30亿 | | 301216 | 万凯新材 | 18.58 | 4.50% | 12.86万 | | 2.35亿 | | 3 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 28 日 LLDPE：基差转正，供应仍宽松 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2601 | 6699 | -0.12% | 393483 | -1873 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | 4 1 | | 4 3 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -64 | | -61 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6740 | | 6750 | | | | 华 东 | 6900 | | 6900 | | | | 华 南 | 7030 | | 7050 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货盘面低开震荡，华北 LL 基差逐步修复至小幅升水，仓单近期有所减少。业者心态受挫 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Chinese chemical industry is entering a critical turning point between 2024 and 2025, characterized by a combination of cyclical stabilization and deepening industrial upgrades, with features such as demand differentiation, supply optimization, cost fluctuations, and clear policy guidance [1][19]. Overall Overview - The report focuses on 431 A-share listed chemical companies, analyzing the industry's development trends from multiple dimensions [1][8]. - The chemical industry is currently in a new stage of innovation-driven and global development, with significant influence in the A-share market, reflected in the number of companies, market capitalization, and revenue [1][19]. - Chemical products dominate in terms of company numbers, market capitalization, revenue, and profit, followed by plastics, agricultural chemicals, and chemical raw materials [1][19]. - Zhejiang, Shandong, and Jiangsu provinces lead in key indicators, while other provinces show a gradient development pattern based on resource endowments and industrial upgrade pace [1][19]. Market Performance - Chemical product prices faced pressure after fluctuations in 2024, continuing to operate at low levels in 2025, indicating the industry is still in a bottoming phase [1][19]. - Price differentials for chemical products showed increased volatility in 2024, with a shift from negative to positive in early 2025 before slightly narrowing [1][19]. - Although stock prices rebounded, they underperformed compared to the broader market, with valuations remaining at historical lows [1][19]. - There is significant divergence in market capitalization performance, with leading companies and high-growth targets standing out [1][19]. Operating Conditions - Revenue showed resilience in scale, with a slight growth in 2024, while net profit attributable to shareholders exhibited structural differentiation [2][20]. - Revenue growth turned positive, while profit growth remained negative but significantly narrowed [2][20]. - Profitability faced deep pressure, reflecting a differentiated pattern amid industrial transformation challenges [2][20]. - Operational capabilities showed significant differentiation, with asset and account management reflecting operational resilience [2][20]. - The asset-liability ratio increased marginally, with financial strategies adapting to industrial upgrade needs [2][20]. Capital Operations - In 2024, equity financing saw a comprehensive contraction, with capital focusing on quality tracks and core projects [2][20]. - Bond financing showed moderate recovery, with funds concentrating on quality projects and leading entities [2][20]. Capacity Construction - Capital expenditure contracted year-on-year, with fixed assets continuing to grow but at a slower pace, shifting from scale expansion to stock optimization and high-end upgrades [2][20]. - The total amount of ongoing projects steadily increased, but the growth rate slowed, with significant differentiation among sub-industries and a pronounced clustering effect among leading companies [2][20]. Technological Innovation - R&D intensity increased overall, with resources concentrating on high-end tracks and leading specialized companies, highlighting the logic of innovation-driven transformation [2][20]. - The proportion of R&D personnel continued to rise, with significant differentiation among sub-industries and companies, particularly among leading technology firms [2][20]. International Development - Overseas revenue showed overall recovery growth, with significant differentiation among sub-industries and leading companies deeply embedded in the global market [2][20]. - Foreign ownership showed increasing differentiation, with high-end technology companies receiving focused allocation, reflecting global capital's recognition of China's chemical industry's high-end transformation [2][20]. Policy Guidance - Encouraging policies focus on green low-carbon, high-end, and park-intensive development, promoting industrial upgrades [2][20]. - Restrictive policies rigidly eliminate backward production capacity and optimize inefficient layouts, strengthening environmental and safety constraints [2][20]. - Capital market policies support advanced chemical new materials, deepen market-oriented reforms in mergers and acquisitions, and guide capital towards strategic areas [2][20]. Case Insights - Wanhua Chemical builds a scale moat through integrated and global layouts, maintaining a stable traditional business while expanding new growth areas [2][20]. - New Hope achieves counter-cyclical growth through technological barriers and specialized routes, demonstrating the growth value of technology-driven and niche deep cultivation [2][20]. - Upwind New Materials highlights the mismatch between valuation and fundamentals, warning against over-reliance on capital sentiment and short-term events, emphasizing the importance of profit realization for valuation support [2][20].

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月27日 【行情分析】 11月27日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在89%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至11 月21日当周，PE下游开工率环比上升0.20个百分点至44.69%，农膜仍处于旺季，农膜订单依然稳定， 处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存再次小幅增加，包装膜订单转而小幅增加，整体PE下游开工 率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。11月石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水平。成 本端，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响， 另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。供应上，新 增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE和70万吨/年的中石油广西石化近期投产。塑料开工率略 有下降。农膜进入旺季尾声，订单稳定，旺季成色不及预期，温度下降，北方需求开始减少，农膜 价格开始下跌，预计后续下游开工率下降。下游企业采购意愿不足，刚需为主，贸易商对后市谨慎， 普遍降价积极出货。供需格局整体未改，加上成本支撑减弱，预计近期塑料仍以偏弱震荡为主。 【期现行情】 期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.83%，环比增加0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量34.578万吨，环比增加0.65%,乙烯法企业产 量13.466万吨，环比减少0.18%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.19%，环比减少0.35个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.3%，环比减少0.66个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.2%，环比减少0.39个百 分点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [6] Report's Core Views - The market is affected by geopolitical factors such as the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the prices of most energy and chemical products are under pressure. The supply and demand fundamentals of each product vary, and investors should pay attention to relevant factors and adopt corresponding strategies [1][3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.21%, Brent rising 1.20%, and SC falling 1.03% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, and the short - term driver is the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [9]. - **Fundamentals**: As of the week of November 26, the number of US oil rigs decreased, and Mexico's oil production declined. OPEC expects an increase in global oil demand in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil inventories increased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. Technically, the short - term rebound is weak. Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the PG main contract closed at 4259 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil, with the cost side bearish and the demand side having some resilience. The basis is high, and the price is under pressure [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased slightly, demand from downstream chemical industries was relatively stable, and inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and the price of LPG still has room to decline. Technically, the short - term rebound is under pressure. Do not chase the rise, and go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - **Market Performance**: The L01 contract closed at 6707 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [17]. - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounded, but the supply was under pressure, the demand was weak, and the cost support was insufficient [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production increased seasonally, the downstream start - up rate decreased, and the oil price was expected to decline in the medium term [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, reduce short positions. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of L at [6750 - 6850] [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP01 contract closed at 6265 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals followed the cost side, with high inventory, weak demand, and the oil price still facing downward pressure [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories were high, the devices were restarting, and the external and internal demand was insufficient [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the low price level, reduce short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP at [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4491 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis was repaired, the social inventory was high, the upward drive was insufficient, but the low valuation provided support [26]. - **Fundamentals**: The anti - dumping was unlikely to be implemented, and the export orders increased. The trading returned to the weak fundamentals [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintained a high premium. Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of V at [4400 - 4550] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure was relieved, the demand was relatively good, but the cost was under pressure, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation in December [28]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance, the downstream polyester and weaving start - up rates were high, and the PX price might follow the decline of crude oil [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation and processing fees were not high. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA at [4650 - 4725] [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract closed at 3808 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic start - up rate decreased, the new devices were put into production, the supply pressure increased, and the demand was relatively good but the orders were weakening [30]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic and overseas device status changed, the inventory increased slightly, and the cost was under pressure [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG at [3880 - 3930] [31]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract position decreased slightly [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in Taicang stabilized, the port basis strengthened, the inventory decreased but was still at a high level. The supply pressure was large, the demand improved, and the cost support was weak [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic devices increased production, overseas devices maintained stability, downstream demand improved, and the inventory decreased [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at the low - valuation level. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract on dips [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR01 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure remained, the demand was mixed, the social inventory was high, and the export had been priced in. Be vigilant about the downward risk [38]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply was high, the domestic demand was weak before the year, the export was good, the inventory decreased slightly, and the cost was supported [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR at [1625 - 1655] [40]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 25, the NG main contract closed at 4.481 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 4.09% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to concerns about the return of Russian gas, putting pressure on the gas price. The demand entered the peak season, providing some support [44]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of US natural gas drilling platforms increased, China's natural gas production increased, and US natural gas inventories decreased [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The demand is supported in the peak season, but the supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG at [4.565 - 4.800] [45]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the BU main contract closed at 3043 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to crude oil. Affected by the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and South American geopolitics, there is still room for price compression [48]. - **Fundamentals**: The production plan decreased in December, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is in the off - season. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU at [2950 - 3050] [49]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1037 yuan/ton, up 2.3% [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The cold - repair expectation provides support, but the supply is difficult to decline further, and the demand is weak [53]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily melting volume remained stable, the real - estate market was weak, and the deep - processing orders were at a low level [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of FG at [990 - 1040] [53]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA01 contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [55]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand weakened, the supply was in a loose pattern in the medium - to - long - term, and the market was in a bearish consolidation [54]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance or reduced production, the demand from the glass industry decreased, and the inventory was high [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Be cautious about short - selling at the low price level. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds [55].