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新消费系列深度报告:国潮崛起,古法工艺引领黄金新消费
Dongguan Securities· 2025-08-28 05:02
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Market Weight" investment rating to the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [61]. Core Insights - The Chinese jewelry market is projected to exceed 900 billion RMB by 2029, driven by increasing purchasing power and diverse daily wear demands, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% from 2024 to 2029 [6][16]. - Gold jewelry dominates the market, expected to hold a 73% share in 2024, reflecting its cultural significance and investment value [17]. - The ancient gold jewelry market has seen rapid growth, with sales revenue soaring from 13 billion RMB in 2018 to 157.3 billion RMB in 2023, achieving a CAGR of 64.6% [51]. - The report highlights a structural shift in consumer preferences towards ancient gold craftsmanship, which combines cultural aesthetics with modern luxury, allowing for premium pricing beyond traditional weight-based pricing [61]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Gold Jewelry Industry - The jewelry industry in China has evolved through various stages, from the initial demand surge post-1982 to the current phase characterized by e-commerce penetration and a shift towards high-end customization [14][15]. 2. Factors Driving Gold Jewelry Consumption - Rising gold prices are expected to boost investment demand for gold jewelry, with geopolitical risks and central bank purchases providing additional support [32]. - The popularity of diversified and personalized products is increasing, particularly among younger consumers who favor traditional craftsmanship and cultural narratives [35]. 3. Craftsmanship Evolution and Market Growth - The ancient gold jewelry market is anticipated to reach 421.4 billion RMB by 2028, with a CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, driven by cultural significance and aesthetic appeal [51]. 4. Competitive Landscape in the Gold Jewelry Industry - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with leading companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang holding significant market shares, primarily through franchise models [57]. 5. Investment Strategy - Despite a slowdown in overall market growth, structural opportunities exist, particularly in the ancient gold segment, which is expected to continue its rapid expansion [61].