磷酸铁锂(LFP)材料

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LFP材料现拐点:头部产能利用率超90%,洗牌加速
高工锂电· 2025-08-31 11:04
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth and demand for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) materials in China, driven by both energy storage and power sectors, with expectations for continued expansion in production and technology advancements [4][5][10]. Group 1: Market Overview - GGII predicts that in the first half of 2025, China's LFP material shipments will reach 1.61 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 68%, accounting for 77% of the total shipments of cathode materials [4]. - The total shipment of LFP batteries in China is expected to exceed 650 GWh in the first half of 2025, with LFP batteries making up 81.4% of the total installed capacity [5]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The demand for LFP materials is primarily driven by two factors: the rapid increase in energy storage lithium battery demand in overseas markets and the continued replacement of ternary batteries by LFP batteries in the power sector [5]. - GGII forecasts that the total shipment of phosphate-based cathode materials in China will exceed 3.4 million tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 40% [5]. Group 3: Product Development - The mainstream packing density of LFP materials is currently concentrated between 2.5-2.6 g/cc, with a gradual shift towards higher densities above 2.6 g/cc [8]. - In the first half of 2025, the monthly shipment of high-density LFP materials (over 2.6 g/cc) has exceeded 40,000 tons, while high-rate materials (discharge rate over 30C) have surpassed 2,500 tons [8]. Group 4: Production Capacity and Utilization - As of the first half of 2025, leading LFP material companies have a capacity utilization rate exceeding 80%, with some exceeding 90% [10]. - Despite structural overcapacity in the LFP industry, expansion is ongoing, particularly among leading companies, driven by high demand and the need for high-density products [10]. Group 5: Pricing and Cost Trends - In the first half of 2025, the processing fees for LFP materials have shown a slow upward trend, with industry losses continuing to narrow [13]. - It is anticipated that LFP material prices and processing fees will increase by 3-5 percentage points in the third quarter compared to the second quarter [13]. Group 6: Technological Advancements - The LFP materials are progressing towards higher packing densities (from 2.6 to 2.7+ g/cm3) and are being developed for energy storage applications with cycle life of 10,000 to 15,000 cycles [13]. - The industry is also focusing on enhancing charging rates while maintaining high packing density [13].