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收入创历史新高,FY25Q4指引大超市场预期:铠侠(KIOXIA)FY2025Q3业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要
Huachuang Securities· 2026-02-13 04:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The revenue of KIOXIA in FY25Q3 reached a record high, and the guidance for FY25Q4 significantly exceeded market expectations, mainly driven by the increase in average selling price, the growth of bit shipments based on storage capacity, and the positive impact of exchange rate changes [2][3]. - The strong demand in the artificial intelligence field has promoted the record - high revenue of smart devices, solid - state drives, and storage products in all terminal markets [4]. - The NAND market demand is extremely strong, and the overall demand is expected to exceed supply. The market bit growth rate is expected to remain unchanged from the previous guidance: around 15% in CY2025 and 15 - 20% in CY2026 [5][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 KIOXIA FY25Q3 Operating Conditions 3.1.1 Overall Revenue Situation - Revenue in FY25Q3 was 543.6 billion yen (including sales related to joint ventures of 51.4 billion yen, QoQ +21.3%, YoY +20.8%), meeting the company's guidance (the company's guidance was 500 - 550 billion yen). The gross profit margin was 26.6% (QoQ +7.2pct). Non - GAAP net profit was 89.5 billion yen (QoQ +114.9%, YoY +17.3%), and the non - GAAP net profit margin was 16.5% (QoQ +7.2pct) [3][10]. 3.1.2 Shipment and Unit Price - The ASP of shipments in FY25Q3 increased by 10 - 15% quarter - on - quarter, and the shipment bits increased by about 5% quarter - on - quarter [3][11]. 3.1.3 Revenue Division - Overall, strong AI demand drove record - high revenues in all terminal markets. Smart device business revenue was 186.3 billion yen (QoQ +18.4%, YoY +59.1%), SSD and storage business revenue was 300.4 billion yen (QoQ +22.8%, YoY +7.8%), and other business revenue was 57 billion yen (QoQ +22.5%, YoY +5.2%) [4][10]. - In the smart device business, the transition to the 8th - generation BiCS FLASH drove strong demand in FY25Q3, with both sales volume and sales reaching record highs [4][12]. - In the SSD and storage business, data center/enterprise accounted for about 60%, and personal computers and others accounted for about 40%. The sales of personal computers increased quarter - on - quarter mainly due to the increase in selling prices. Driven by strong AI server demand and higher pricing, the data center & enterprise - level achieved record sales and GB shipments [4][12]. 3.1.4 Joint Factory - Joint development activities: KIOXIA will receive cash payments totaling $1.165 billion (about 178.2 billion yen) from 2026 to 2029 as compensation for manufacturing services and continuous supply to SanDisk. The company plans to recognize additional annual revenue of about $131 million (about 20 billion yen) from February 2026 to December 2034, which will be directly included in operating profit. The original OEM manufacturing revenue from SanDisk was in a cost - plus model, and now it has changed to a model with clear compensation for manufacturing services [15]. - Capacity allocation: KIOXIA's own capacity accounts for about 20%. In the joint - venture capacity, about 40% is for KIOXIA's use, and about 40% is for SanDisk's use. The overall wafer production capacity ratio is approximately KIOXIA:SanDisk = 6:4. KIOXIA has 100% control over the wafer manufacturing of the Yokkaichi and Kitakami factories and independently controls all elements required for the operation and production management of the two factories [15]. 3.2 NAND Market Outlook - In the data center & enterprise - level, strong demand is driven by significant investment in the artificial intelligence field. There is a continuous replacement demand for traditional servers, strong demand for AI inference workloads, and the shortage of NL - HDD is generating medium - term demand for high - capacity QLC SSDs [21]. - In the mobile phone & PC market, the market is shifting from low - cost models to high - end models with AI functions, and the rising BOM cost may restrict the overall shipment volume [21]. - In terms of supply - demand relationship, the current demand is extremely strong. Based on public data, the NAND industry still maintains investment discipline, so the overall demand is expected to exceed supply. Considering the possible continuous restriction on the supply side, the company expects the market bit growth rate to remain unchanged from the previous guidance: around 15% in CY2025 and 15 - 20% in CY2026 [5][21]. 3.3 Company FY25Q4 Performance Guidance - Operating revenue is expected to reach 845 - 935 billion yen in FY25Q4 (a 63.7% quarter - on - quarter increase based on the median). The main driving factor is the selling price, and the company expects significant price increases for products in all application fields. Although the total shipment volume in GB is expected to decline, the shipment proportion of data center and enterprise - level SSDs is expected to increase. In the smart device field, the demand for high - end smartphones remains strong, and the shipment volume is expected to decrease only slightly [24]. - Non - GAAP operating profit is expected to reach 440 - 530 billion yen in FY25Q4 (a 235.2% quarter - on - quarter increase based on the median). The goal is to further improve the profit margin beyond the 26.6% in the third quarter. In addition to price increases, profitability will be further improved by expanding sales of high - value - added products such as those for data centers [24]. - Non - GAAP net profit is expected to reach 310 - 370 billion yen in FY25Q4 (a 279.9% quarter - on - quarter increase based on the median) [24]. - Product progress: The 8th - generation BiCS FLASH is progressing as planned and is expected to become the company's main product by the end of March 2026, with its production proportion exceeding that of the 5th - generation product. The company will continue to meet AI - related demand and expand the supply of competitive products to further improve the profit level [24].