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海力风电(301155):短期盈利承压,深远海放量值得期待
Guotou Securities· 2025-10-29 11:56
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company with a 12-month target price of 103.02 CNY [7] Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 246% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 3.671 billion CNY, with a net profit of 346 million CNY, up 299% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters improved significantly compared to the previous year, reflecting the ramp-up of offshore wind projects in Jiangsu and other regions [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing offshore wind market, particularly in deep-sea projects, with a theoretical development capacity of 4500 GW in China's exclusive economic zones [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.641 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 135% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [1] - The gross margins for the first three quarters were 15.1%, 17.6%, and 15.2%, compared to 5.0%, 0.2%, and 8.1% in the same period last year [2] - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 631 million CNY, 896 million CNY, and 1.233 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 855%, 42%, and 38% [4] Market Outlook - The report highlights the rapid progress in deep-sea offshore wind projects, particularly in Zhejiang, which is expected to open new opportunities for the company [3] - The company has strategically established bases in key provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, positioning itself to capture future deep-sea orders [3] Valuation - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2025-2027 downwards due to slower-than-expected project progress and production ramp-up [4] - The target price of 103.02 CNY corresponds to a PE ratio of 25 for 2026 [4]