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粤海饲料(001313):技术筑基,乘行业回暖东风望业绩复苏
Minsheng Securities· 2025-07-30 05:50
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has over 30 years of experience in the specialized aquatic feed sector, focusing on the research and sales of feed for marine species such as shrimp, golden pompano, and sea bass. In 2024, the feed sales volume is expected to reach 787,100 tons, with specialized aquatic feed accounting for 70% of this volume. The company is a core player in the domestic specialized aquatic feed market, with over 71% of its revenue coming from the South China region [4][11]. - The recovery of the downstream aquaculture market is anticipated to drive a rebound in feed demand, as prices for major aquatic products like grass carp, crucian carp, and California sea bass remain at high levels, leading to increased stocking and feeding activities [12][15]. - The company is enhancing its credit management and fund recovery measures to address the impact of bad debts, which have increased significantly due to market conditions. The efficiency of fund recovery is gradually improving [13][38]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leader in the specialized aquatic feed industry, leveraging over 30 years of technical expertise and market presence. It has developed a competitive edge through its "Three Highs and Three Lows" strategy, which focuses on high quality, health, and growth while minimizing protein content, waste, and feed conversion ratios [11][22]. Market Conditions - The aquaculture market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for increased feed production in 2025. The prices of key aquatic products are projected to remain high, which will likely boost stocking and feeding activities, thereby increasing feed demand [12][52]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has experienced fluctuations, with a projected recovery in 2025. The report forecasts revenues of 67.78 billion, 74.07 billion, and 77.11 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 1.31 billion, 1.83 billion, and 2.26 billion yuan during the same period [14][78]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally, particularly in Vietnam, where it has established a production base to meet the growing demand for aquatic feed. This strategic move is expected to enhance its growth potential in the region [74][77].