研究早观点 2025 年 7 月 31 日 星期四 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,615.72 | 0.17 | 持续上涨 | | 深证成指 | | 11,203.03 | -0.77 | | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,151.24 | -0.02 | | | 中小板指 | | 6,961.64 | -0.47 | | | 创业板指 | | 2,367.68 | -1.62 | | | 科创 | 50 | 1,058.57 | -1.11 | | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李明阳 【今日要点】 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 【宏观策略】海外市场周观察（20250721~20250727） 【行业评论】化学原料：新材料周报（250721-0725）-世界人工智能大 会正式开幕，人形机器人领域材料有望实现高速发展 【山证农业】海大集团 2025 年半年报点评-饲料业务基本面显著回升 【山证专精特新】安培龙（30 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Haida Group (002311.SZ) is rated as a buy due to its strong performance and growth prospects [2] - The company disclosed its semi-annual report for 2025, indicating positive financial health [2] - Feed sales have significantly increased year-on-year, leading to an enhanced market share [2] - The growth rates for poultry feed, pig feed, and aquatic feed have rebounded notably compared to 2024 [2] - The overseas feed business of the company continues to experience high growth [2] - The company is actively expanding its seedling and animal health businesses by developing new product categories [2] - The aquaculture business is showing steady development [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the AI computing industry, driven by significant investments from major overseas companies, which is expected to boost the demand for related technologies and services [25][27][33] - The introduction of a national childcare subsidy program in China is anticipated to stimulate demand in the dairy sector, particularly in infant formula, as it aims to increase birth rates [43][44][45] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the communication sector, particularly for Corning, which reported strong Q2 earnings and is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for AI-related technologies [24][25][26] Industry Analysis Communication Sector - Corning's Q2 2025 revenue reached $4.05 billion, a 12% year-on-year increase, with a notable 41% growth in its optical communications segment [24][25] - The company's "Scale-up" strategy is projected to significantly enhance its sales and profit margins by 2026, with expectations of a $10 billion market opportunity in data center interconnects by 2030 [26][27] Dairy Sector - The national childcare subsidy program is set to provide annual cash benefits of 3,600 yuan per child, which is expected to positively impact birth rates and subsequently increase demand for infant formula [43][44] - The report anticipates a recovery in the demand for infant formula in 2025, driven by the subsidy and a favorable demographic shift [45][46] AI Computing Industry - The integration of AI technologies is expected to create substantial market opportunities, particularly through platforms like NVIDIA's Omniverse, which facilitates collaboration and simulation across various industries [29][30][31] - The report identifies several investment opportunities within the AI computing supply chain, including optical modules and liquid cooling technologies, which are poised for growth as AI applications expand [27][33] Agricultural Sector - Haida Group reported a 12.5% increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by strong sales in its feed business, particularly in the pig and poultry segments [60][61] - The company is also expanding its international market presence, with a 40% year-on-year increase in overseas feed sales [61][62] Real Estate and Property Management - South Property's diversified service model is expected to enhance profitability, with a projected net profit of 168 million yuan for 2025 [54][55] - The company is leveraging technology, such as cleaning robots, to improve service efficiency and reduce costs [58][59]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities highlights the rapid growth of Haida Group's feed business, strong performance in overseas markets, and maintains a "buy" rating [1] Feed Business Performance - In H1 2025, the feed business revenue reached 47.139 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.02%, with a gross margin of 9.79%, up by 0.03 percentage points [1] - Total feed sales volume in H1 2025 was 14.7 million tons, including 1.05 million tons for internal breeding use, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 25% [1] - The absolute increase in export sales is close to the full-year target for 2025, with market share further increasing [1] Overseas Market Expansion - In H1 2025, the overseas feed export volume grew by 40% year-on-year, with existing regions developing steadily and active exploration of new areas [1] Focus on Breeding and Innovation - The company continues to focus on building capabilities in pig farming teams and innovating a light-asset model, leading to controllable overall breeding risks and considerable profitability as team expertise improves and models evolve [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 58.831 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.639 billion yuan, up 24.16% year-on-year. A cash dividend of 2.00 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) is proposed for all shareholders [4][12] - The company's feed sales volume increased significantly, with external sales reaching approximately 13.65 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26%. The breakdown includes aquatic feed sales of about 2.8 million tons (up 16%), poultry feed sales of about 7.3 million tons (up 24%), and pig feed sales of about 3.4 million tons (up 43%). The overseas sales also saw a year-on-year increase of approximately 40% [14] - The company is focusing on improving breeding levels and has seen stable development in its seedling and animal health businesses. The pig breeding business is adopting a model that mitigates risks and locks in profits, while shrimp farming is strategically timed to compete with traditional products [15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's feed sales gross margin was 10.04% (year-on-year stable), while the breeding business gross margin was 20.26% (up 3.37 percentage points). The company's sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses were 1.418 billion, 1.796 billion, 426 million, and 149 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +12.57%, +20.68%, +6.48%, and -30.37% [13] - The company expects revenue for 2025-2027 to be 128.599 billion, 147.750 billion, and 161.161 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.21%, 14.89%, and 9.08%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.025 billion, 5.455 billion, and 6.137 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.57%, 8.56%, and 12.50% respectively [16][17] Market Position - The company has further increased its market share due to the growth in feed sales and the increase in downstream inventory. The absolute increase in feed sales volume in the first half of 2025 is close to the company's target for the entire year [14] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in its main business, leading to an upward revision of its earnings forecast for 2026-2027 [16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has over 30 years of experience in the specialized aquatic feed sector, focusing on the research and sales of feed for marine species such as shrimp, golden pompano, and sea bass. In 2024, the feed sales volume is expected to reach 787,100 tons, with specialized aquatic feed accounting for 70% of this volume. The company is a core player in the domestic specialized aquatic feed market, with over 71% of its revenue coming from the South China region [4][11]. - The recovery of the downstream aquaculture market is anticipated to drive a rebound in feed demand, as prices for major aquatic products like grass carp, crucian carp, and California sea bass remain at high levels, leading to increased stocking and feeding activities [12][15]. - The company is enhancing its credit management and fund recovery measures to address the impact of bad debts, which have increased significantly due to market conditions. The efficiency of fund recovery is gradually improving [13][38]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leader in the specialized aquatic feed industry, leveraging over 30 years of technical expertise and market presence. It has developed a competitive edge through its "Three Highs and Three Lows" strategy, which focuses on high quality, health, and growth while minimizing protein content, waste, and feed conversion ratios [11][22]. Market Conditions - The aquaculture market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for increased feed production in 2025. The prices of key aquatic products are projected to remain high, which will likely boost stocking and feeding activities, thereby increasing feed demand [12][52]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has experienced fluctuations, with a projected recovery in 2025. The report forecasts revenues of 67.78 billion, 74.07 billion, and 77.11 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 1.31 billion, 1.83 billion, and 2.26 billion yuan during the same period [14][78]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally, particularly in Vietnam, where it has established a production base to meet the growing demand for aquatic feed. This strategic move is expected to enhance its growth potential in the region [74][77].

格隆汇7月30日｜东莞证券研报指出，海大集团2025年上半年实现归母净利润26.39亿元，同比增长 24.16%，业绩符合预期。上半年公司饲料销量创历史同期新高，公司实现饲料销量约1470万吨（含内 部养殖耗用量约105万吨），同比增长约25%，外销增量绝对值已接近2025年全年目标。公司是国内饲 料龙头，持续推进国际化战略。未来国内市场将稳步推进产能利用率及市占率提升，加快海外市场拓展 和产能布局。维持对公司的"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights Haida Group's strong performance in H1 2025, with a significant increase in feed sales and revenue growth, leading to a "buy" rating for the company [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Haida Group reported revenue of 58.831 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, with contributions from feed, agricultural products, raw material trading, and animal health products [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.639 billion yuan, up 24.16% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 2.654 billion yuan, reflecting a 30.57% increase [2]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 33.202 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.356 billion yuan, up 7.26% [2]. Feed Sales and Growth - Total feed sales in H1 2025 increased by 25% year-on-year, reaching 14.7 million tons, with internal consumption at 1.05 million tons (up 7%) and external sales at 13.65 million tons (up 26%) [3]. - The feed business generated revenue of 47.139 billion yuan, accounting for 80.13% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 9.79% [3]. - The company aims for a total feed sales target of 51.5 million tons by 2030, with a mid-term goal of 7.2 million tons in overseas markets [3]. Agricultural Products and Livestock - Agricultural product sales reached 9.735 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 15.59% increase, with a gross margin of 20.26% [4]. - The company is adopting a light-asset and risk-controlled breeding model, leading to significant profitability in pig farming [4]. - The company is also focusing on specialized aquaculture, particularly shrimp farming, to enhance competitive advantages [4]. Investment Outlook - Haida Group is positioned as a leading player in the feed industry, with significant growth in production capacity and stable growth across its value chain, including animal health and breeding [5]. - EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 2.96 yuan and 3.43 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19 times and 16 times [5].

Core Insights - The concentrated feed industry in China is experiencing a decline in production, with a projected output of 12.94 million tons in 2024, representing an 8.8% year-on-year decrease, primarily due to reduced demand from the livestock sector and rising raw material costs [1][11][19] - The average prices of concentrated feed are also on a downward trend, with specific prices for fattening pig feed at 5 CNY/kg (down 4.4%), layer chicken feed at 3.54 CNY/kg (down 4.4%), and broiler feed at 4.13 CNY/kg (down 5.5%) in the first half of 2025 [13][19] Industry Overview - Concentrated feed, also known as protein supplement feed, is a processed feed with moisture content below 12%, providing essential nutrients like proteins, minerals, and vitamins, and is characterized by high nutritional density and energy content [1][3] - The industry is currently in an adjustment phase, influenced by a decrease in livestock farming demand and increased raw material prices, leading to a shift towards mixed feed [1][11] Industry Policies - The Chinese government has introduced several policies to promote the development of the concentrated feed industry, including initiatives for healthy farming practices and the comprehensive utilization of agricultural by-products [5][6][22] - Key policies include the promotion of low-protein diets and support for the exploration and efficient use of new feed resources [6][22] Industry Chain - The concentrated feed industry chain consists of upstream raw materials (corn, sorghum, fish meal, etc.), midstream production processes, and downstream applications in livestock farming [7][11] Competitive Landscape - Large feed companies dominate the market due to their advantages in brand, scale, and technology, while small and medium enterprises face challenges in technology and market share [15][19] - Major players in the industry include New Hope Liuhe, Haida Group, and Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group [15][19] Development Trends - The industry is expected to see advancements in technology and product innovation, with a focus on personalized and high-end market demands [21] - There is a push for green development in response to stricter environmental regulations, encouraging companies to reduce pollution and improve resource efficiency [22] - The internationalization of the concentrated feed industry is accelerating, with opportunities for growth in export markets driven by initiatives like the Belt and Road [24]

Group 1: Fixed Income and Wealth Management - The report discusses the changes and challenges in the wealth management sector, highlighting that the scale of wealth management has seen a slowdown in growth due to high base effects and diminishing yield advantages [3][4]. - In the asset allocation, there has been a notable decrease in bond investments, while deposits and public funds have seen significant increases [5]. - The report indicates that there was a total reduction of 0.27 trillion yuan in bond holdings, primarily in credit bonds and certificates of deposit, while there was an increase in interest rate bonds [6]. Group 2: Home Appliances and Consumer Goods - The report identifies the potential for the new electronic cigarette (HNB) market to reach a scale of 10 billion USD if the US and China markets open up, driven by high concentration and regulatory barriers [7]. - The sweeping machine market is experiencing significant growth, with companies like Roborock achieving substantial sales increases during promotional events, although price competition is expected to persist [8]. - The report notes that the domestic appliance sector is benefiting from a government-backed replacement program, with an investment of 300 billion yuan in 2025 expected to drive appliance consumption significantly [10]. Group 3: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The report on Haida Group indicates that the company achieved a revenue of 58.831 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, with a net profit of 2.639 billion yuan, up 24.16% [13]. - The feed sales volume reached 14.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 25%, with significant growth in pig feed driven by industry recovery and strategic adjustments [14]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with a reported growth of over 40% in feed exports in the first half of 2025, leveraging its competitive advantages from the domestic market [14].