11月份东北粳高粱市场价格呈现窄幅回落走势。据卓创资讯数据监测显示，截至11月28日，东北粳高粱 市场均价为2720元/吨，较10月末价格累计下跌23.33元/吨，跌幅0.85%。市场供需双弱，购销格局呈现 僵持状态。当前市场的主要矛盾在于供方库存消化与需求端采购有限之间的博弈。从市场供给端来看， 受季节性资金需求影响，粮商惜售心态有所松动，叠加农户元旦前后资金回笼需求，产区供应压力或有 所上升。从需求端来看，受终端酒厂冬储库存消化周期影响，当前酒企以执行前期合同为主，市场新增 订单有限，导致高粱市场呈现购销两淡格局。在此背景下，预计12月份粳高粱市场或将呈现窄幅偏弱走 势，市场均价或将在2700元/吨上下波动，波动幅度或有限。（卓创资讯） 本文源自：卓创资讯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic japonica sorghum market prices are expected to show a strong fluctuation in the first half of 2025, with a slight increase compared to the previous year due to supply-demand dynamics and market sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, japonica sorghum prices in China exhibited a trend of moderate increase, aligning with previous market predictions [2] - By June 30, 2025, the price of japonica sorghum in Chifeng, Inner Mongolia, peaked at 3,250 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 640 yuan/ton or 24.52% since the beginning of the year [2] - The consumption of japonica sorghum stocks is accelerating, with farmers' remaining stocks nearing depletion, which supports price stability [2] Group 2: Import Dynamics - The import volume of American sorghum has significantly decreased due to reciprocal tariffs, with a forecasted total import of 2.0827 million tons for the first half of 2025, down 54.51% year-on-year [4] - From January to May 2025, the total import volume of sorghum in China was 1.682 million tons, a decrease of 53.90% year-on-year, with American sorghum imports dropping by 75.55% [4] - In contrast, imports from Argentina and Australia increased significantly, with growth rates of 189.99% and 115.31% respectively [4] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The white liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments, with overall consumption performance being lackluster [5] - The demand for sorghum in the feed industry remains weak, with a projected consumption of 4.97 million tons for the 2024/25 season, reflecting a decline of 36.04% year-on-year [6] - The white liquor sector is experiencing a shift from government consumption to mass-market demand, with the proportion of government consumption dropping below 5% [8] Group 4: Price Forecasts - The price of japonica sorghum is expected to follow a seasonal pattern, with higher probabilities of price increases in July and August, followed by potential declines in September and October due to increased supply [9] - The average price of japonica sorghum in Chifeng is projected to be around 3,208 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 13.15% based on anticipated supply reductions [11] - Overall, the price range for japonica sorghum in the second half of the year is expected to be between 2,900 and 3,400 yuan/ton, influenced by seasonal demand and supply dynamics [12]