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DISCO上调1Q出货指引,关税影响有待观察
HTSC· 2025-05-14 01:50
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" for both Electronics and Semiconductors [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that DISCO's 1QFY25 shipment guidance exceeds expectations, with the impact of tariffs still under observation [1]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the demand for generative AI-related equipment, leading to significant increases in logic and packaging shipments [1][2]. - The report anticipates a bifurcation in global semiconductor equipment investment in CY2025, with strong demand and revenue from AI-related sectors, while power semiconductor investments are expected to remain weak [5]. Summary by Sections 1QFY25 Guidance - The company expects a significant increase in shipment volume by 10.3% to JPY 102.0 billion, despite a projected revenue decline of 37.9% to JPY 75 billion due to currency fluctuations [3]. - The anticipated decline in gross margin is attributed to changes in exchange rate assumptions, with a potential drop of at least 4 percentage points to around 65.8% [3]. 4QFY24 Review - In 4QFY24, revenue reached JPY 120.7 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.0% and a year-on-year increase of 15.7% [2]. - The revenue breakdown by business segments shows precision processing equipment contributing 70% of total revenue, with strong performance in HBM and logic/packaging shipments [2]. Demand Dynamics - The report notes that AI continues to drive strong investment in HBM, with expectations of quarterly fluctuations in demand [5]. - Power semiconductor demand is projected to weaken, with a decrease in its contribution to total shipments from 15% in 4QFY24 to 10% in 1QFY25 [5]. Tariff Response and Capital Expenditure - The company anticipates a 52.9% year-on-year decrease in capital expenditure for FY25 to JPY 3.3 billion, primarily due to the completion of expansion projects in FY24 [4]. - The direct impact of tariffs is considered limited, as only 10% of sales are directed towards the U.S., with production based in Japan [4].