Export Performance - June exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up 1.0 percentage points from May, but down 3.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2024[3] - Exports to the US saw a significant narrowing of the decline to -16.1%, an improvement of 18.4 percentage points since mid-May[4] - Exports to ASEAN and Hong Kong rose by 2.0 and 5.3 percentage points to 16.8% and 16.7% respectively[4] Import Trends - June imports grew by 1.1% year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 4.5 percentage points from May, marking a return to positive growth after three months[5] - The decline in crude oil imports narrowed to -14.3%, a reduction of 7.9 percentage points, influenced by rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions[5] - Capital goods, chemicals, and intermediate goods for domestic demand showed improvement in imports, while processing trade and consumer goods imports declined[5] Economic Outlook - The second quarter's export performance is expected to positively impact economic growth, driven by the temporary easing of US-China tariffs and resilient export supply chains[6] - However, potential risks include increased uncertainty in global trade policies and a possible decline in exports to the US and ASEAN after July[6] - The central bank may consider monetary easing to stabilize the real estate market and support domestic demand if exports decline significantly post-August[6]

宏 观 研 究 投资要点： 宏 观 定 期 报 告 受第二轮抢出口拉动，4 月出口同比 8.1%，较预期更为强劲；加之中美 拟进行对等经贸会谈，美关税烈度整体趋缓，预计二次抢出口可望贯穿二季度， 下半年出口下行风险犹存。4 月出口（美元计价，下同）同比 8.1%，较春节调 整后的 3 月同比增速回升达 2.4 个百分点，在 4 月特朗普推出"对等关税"之 后又针对部分国家地区实施 90 天缓冲、针对半导体等商品实施豁免，造成出 口企业预期巨大波动的背景下，较我们此前稍显乐观的预期（5.7%）更加强劲， 凸显出新一轮"抢出口"显著的拉动作用。近期我国同意与美方进行对等经贸 会谈，美国内需受到短期刺激效应同时关税烈度整体趋缓，预计我国的二次抢 出口有望贯穿整个二季度。4 月进口同比跌幅较 3 月收窄 4.1 个百分点至-0.2%， 进口反弹带动当月货物贸易顺差小幅收窄至 961.8 亿美元但仍维持高位。美国 发起的本轮关税战进入拉锯阶段，美方试图将我国强大的产业链生产能力从其 供给侧逐步剥离的意图尚未根本性改变，下半年我国出口下行风险犹存。 关税动荡中边际缓和，我国域外协同生产活跃度陡升；人民币汇率指数小 幅走弱 ...