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新氧科技(SY):Q3有季节性压力,但FY25增长目标信心不变
Haitong Securities International· 2025-08-19 05:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of $10.28, while the current price is $3.74 [2][6]. Core Views - The company is facing seasonal pressures in Q3, but confidence in the FY25 growth target remains unchanged. The report anticipates a significant revenue increase in Q4 due to the release of pent-up consumer demand [4][5]. - The company’s offline medical beauty segment has shown strong growth, with revenue increasing by 427% year-on-year to 1.444 billion RMB in Q2, exceeding management's guidance [3][4]. - Despite a projected increase in revenue for FY25, the company is expected to incur a larger loss than previously forecasted, with losses now estimated to exceed 140 million RMB [5][6]. Financial Summary - For FY25, the company is projected to generate revenue of 1.546 billion RMB, reflecting a 5% increase from the previous year, while FY26 revenue is expected to rise significantly to 2.545 billion RMB, a 65% increase [2][9]. - The net profit for FY25 is forecasted to be a loss of 140 million RMB, with a projected recovery to a profit of 11 million RMB in FY26 [2][9]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 49.3% in FY25 and further to 42.5% in FY26, indicating pressure on profitability [2][9]. Business Segment Insights - The offline medical beauty segment is expected to see Q3 revenue of 1.7 billion RMB, a 274% increase year-on-year, with a significant ramp-up anticipated in Q4 [4]. - The upstream product sales are projected to decline by 16% for FY25, while the POP business is expected to see a 38% decrease in revenue for the same period [4][5]. - The report highlights the company's strategy to open 10 new offline stores, despite the anticipated seasonal slowdown [4].