Group 1 - The ADP report for September indicates a surprising decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, significantly below Wall Street's expectation of an increase of 45,000, suggesting a notable deterioration in the U.S. labor market [1] - The report has gained increased attention due to the government shutdown, which has led to the cancellation of the upcoming non-farm payroll report, making ADP data a critical indicator for assessing employment conditions [1] - Following the employment data, there was a surge of funds into the U.S. Treasury market, with yields on bonds from 2 to 30 years declining across the board, particularly a drop of 6.1 basis points in the 2-year Treasury yield to 3.54%, marking a two-week low [1] Group 2 - The divergence between the deteriorating labor market and steady economic growth has prompted investors to bet on interest rate cuts, with the second quarter GDP growth rate revised up to 3.8% [2] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with an 86.7% chance of another cut in December, reflecting a significant increase from the previous day's 77.3% [2] - Analysts suggest that if the government shutdown continues and key economic data is missing in October, it could disrupt the Fed's policy decisions for December, but the recent labor market weakness and bond market reactions may still lead to a rate cut in the upcoming meeting [2]