Group 1 - The ADP report for September indicates a surprising decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, significantly below Wall Street's expectation of an increase of 45,000, suggesting a notable deterioration in the U.S. labor market [1] - The report has gained increased attention due to the government shutdown, which has led to the cancellation of the upcoming non-farm payroll report, making ADP data a critical indicator for assessing employment conditions [1] - Following the employment data, there was a surge of funds into the U.S. Treasury market, with yields on bonds from 2 to 30 years declining across the board, particularly a drop of 6.1 basis points in the 2-year Treasury yield to 3.54%, marking a two-week low [1] Group 2 - The divergence between the deteriorating labor market and steady economic growth has prompted investors to bet on interest rate cuts, with the second quarter GDP growth rate revised up to 3.8% [2] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with an 86.7% chance of another cut in December, reflecting a significant increase from the previous day's 77.3% [2] - Analysts suggest that if the government shutdown continues and key economic data is missing in October, it could disrupt the Fed's policy decisions for December, but the recent labor market weakness and bond market reactions may still lead to a rate cut in the upcoming meeting [2]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment since August 2025 has been characterized by a strong performance in high-growth sectors, particularly in China's technology stocks, alongside a backdrop of rising global bond yields and shifting currency dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In August 2025, major asset performances ranked as follows: Sci-Tech 50 > ChiNext Index > CSI 300 > Gold > Hang Seng Tech > Dow Jones > LME Copper > European Stocks > NASDAQ > Hang Seng Index > RMB > 0 > China Bond > Nanhua Composite > USD > Crude Oil > Long VIX [1][14]. - Risk assets generally rose in August, with notable performance in Chinese assets, a concurrent appreciation of the RMB, and pressure on government bonds [2][14]. - The domestic equity market saw a broad increase, with the Wind All A Index rising by 10.9% in August, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 13.4 basis points to 1.84% [2][27]. Group 2: Macro Trading Themes - The primary macro trading themes since August 2025 include a "high-growth narrative" led by the Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext Index, a "rate cut trade" in the U.S. following downward revisions in employment data, and a rise in "risk aversion" reflected in increasing global bond yields [3][57]. - The U.S. employment data revision has opened a window for potential Fed rate cuts, influencing various asset classes to align with this "rate cut trade" [3][57]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic indicators show that the U.S. hard data has remained stable while soft data has slightly improved since August, contrasting with Europe and Japan, where economic outlooks are mixed [4][70]. - China's economic indicators suggest a slowdown, with an estimated actual GDP growth of approximately 4.76% for August, aligning with seasonal economic characteristics [4][70]. Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China has shown a narrowing year-on-year decline in sales, with second-hand housing performing better than new homes, indicating a trend of "price for volume" [2][42]. - The rental yield in major cities has remained above the 30-year government bond yield, although the leading margin has narrowed compared to previous periods [2][42]. Group 5: Market Volatility and Sentiment - The volatility in the market has seen a decrease in August, with the number of daily ranking changes among 19 asset classes dropping from 124 to 114 [15][62]. - The VIX index has shown signs of recovery, indicating increased market uncertainty and potential adjustments in global risk assets [15][63].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current situation suggests a downside risk to employment growth, which may require policy adjustments [2][3] - Powell noted that despite the resilience of the U.S. economy amid high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, the labor market and economic growth have shown significant slowdown [3] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in July, with tariffs pushing up some goods prices, indicating that inflation remains a concern [3] Group 2 - Following Powell's remarks, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased from 75.5% to nearly 90% [4] - Major U.S. stock indices rose significantly, with the Dow Jones up 1.82%, Nasdaq up 1.83%, and S&P 500 up 1.52% [5][6] - The U.S. dollar index fell below the 98 mark, trading at 97.8371, a decrease of 0.82% [6]