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标普全球:能源转型驱动氯碱市场反弹
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-07-01 02:12
Group 1: Market Trends and Projections - The clean energy transition is driving structural demand growth for chlor-alkali products, with PVC resin industry currently in a long downturn, but a rebound is expected post-2025 [1] - PVC prices may reach their lowest point this century, with 2023 likely being the industry low [1] - Global caustic soda demand is anticipated to grow steadily due to increased demand in solar, wind, biofuels, and battery metals [1] Group 2: Applications and Innovations - PVC remains the largest end-use application in the chlor-alkali industry, but clean energy technologies are creating new demand, such as PVC flooring for underfloor heating systems [2] - The growth of bifacial solar panels is expected to increase glass consumption, thereby boosting demand for caustic soda and chlorine [2] - Chlorine is used for purifying silicon wafers and enhancing glass clarity, while caustic soda is utilized for neutralizing acidic waste and improving surface smoothness [2] Group 3: Future Demand and Industry Dynamics - In 2024, global caustic soda demand in the alumina refining industry is projected to reach 17.4 million tons, with further increases expected due to aluminum's role in electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure [3] - The energy transition is creating demand and transforming chlor-alkali production [3] - PVC remains a preferred material for many infrastructure and end-use applications, indicating a positive outlook for the chlor-alkali industry despite a slow recovery [3] Group 4: Bioplastics and Sustainability - The global PLA market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 9.1% from 2025 to 2030, reaching over 450,000 tons, driven by the push for sustainable materials [4] - Only 9% of plastic waste is recycled, highlighting the urgent need for improved waste management strategies [4] - Thailand may become a hub for bioplastics production, with cassava as a primary raw material for PLA, which requires caustic soda for processing, presenting opportunities for the Thai chlor-alkali industry [4]