1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.7% to 84.6% week - on - week; the downstream alumina开工率 increased by 0.10% to 82.58%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 0.39% to 89.36%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 remained stable at 52.57%. The national liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 4.93% to 52.54 tons, with production enterprises in North China actively accumulating inventory due to bullish expectations. The prices of caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong increased, and the chlor - alkali profit increased to 323 yuan/ton. The increase in 50 - alkali exports boosted the spot market atmosphere, but due to the strong liquid chlorine price and the repair of chlor - alkali profit, there were few planned maintenance devices in April, and the improvement of domestic supply - demand was limited. The daily range of SH2605 is expected to be around 2200 - 2350 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the futures holding volume was 201,115 hands, an increase of 11,137 hands; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was 3,254 hands, an increase of 1,960 hands; the futures trading volume was 427,939 hands, an increase of 106,468 hands. The closing price of the January contract was 2,427 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 737 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,303 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was - 37 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 222.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The price of steam coal was 644 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,180 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 20th to March 26th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7%. From March 21st to 27th, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.10% to 82.58%; from March 20th to 26th, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 0.39% to 89.36%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 remained stable at 52.57%. As of March 26th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 525,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 4.93% and a year - on - year increase of 14.28%. The SH2605 contract fell 4.13% to close at 2,250 yuan/ton. Market expectations are that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East will ease. The average weekly profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong from March 20th to March 26th was 323 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is tight in the short - term, but supply pressure will gradually appear. Demand has some support but the terminal demand lacks positive guidance. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500, and the follow - up progress of the US - Iran conflict should be monitored [1]. Polyolefins - The supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, declining import expectations, and increasing exports makes the inventory of the 05 contract of LLDPE and PP low. The core logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" dominates the pricing power. In April, the spot is expected to tighten and the basis to strengthen [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the cost support weakens, and the profit of the combined - alkali method is expected to decline. It is expected to fluctuate, and the SA605 contract is expected to be in the range of 1,150 - 1,250. For glass, the cost support weakens, and the inventory pressure exists. It is also expected to fluctuate, and the FG605 contract has limited downward space. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has declined. The upstream and downstream operating rates have decreased to varying degrees. The overall LPG market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to factors such as increased supply, inventory accumulation, and weak demand. PVC has a certain cost support, but the price may be adjusted weakly in the short - term due to factors such as weak export demand and fading chemical sentiment [5]. Urea - The urea supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing bottom support for the price. However, the supply is still abundant, and the demand is in a slack period. The market lacks clear driving factors, and it is expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading logic is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short - term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillation pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. The negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait need to be tracked [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The supply is expected to increase in the long - term, while the demand is improving. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risks of geopolitical situation changes and weakening MTO profits [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to improve. It may follow the oil price fluctuations, and the EB05 - BZ05 spread can be shorted at high levels. For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening, and the profit is being compressed. It also follows the oil price fluctuations [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX has a tight supply - demand expectation in April and still has price support. PTA has limited self - driving force and follows the cost fluctuations. Ethylene glycol has cost support and is expected to go up, but there is a risk of a pull - back. Short - fiber has weak self - driving force and follows the raw material fluctuations. Bottle - chip is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation and strong processing fees in April [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various rubber varieties have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling. The basis of full - latex has increased [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased significantly [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand in January has increased, while that of Indonesia and India has decreased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires are relatively stable. The export volume of tires in February has decreased, and the import volume of natural rubber has also decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has increased slightly, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE has decreased [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE plants has decreased, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has increased. The operating rate of PP plants has decreased slightly, and the operating rate of PP powder has decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of PE has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The enterprise inventory and trader inventory of PP have both decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of glass 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Soda - Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of soda ash in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of soda ash 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has also decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of glass has decreased slightly, and the factory - warehouse inventory of soda ash has decreased slightly [3]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The new - construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate have changed to different degrees, with some improving and some still in a negative growth state [3]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed. The spot price in South China has decreased slightly [4]. - **External - Market Prices**: The prices of FEI and CP contracts have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [4]. - **Inventory**: The refinery storage - capacity ratio of LPG has decreased, while the port inventory and port storage - capacity ratio have increased slightly [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main - refineries has decreased, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic - soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits of some PVC production methods have decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees [5]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of caustic soda has increased, and the upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory of PVC have decreased [5]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of urea has oscillated weakly, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [6]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and steam - coal are stable [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers are stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has decreased slightly, the operating rate of urea production plants has decreased, and the inventory has decreased [6]. Crude Oil - **Crude - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined - oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined - oil products in different regions have decreased [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises has increased, and the operating rate of downstream MTO devices has increased [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed to different degrees [10]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [10]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains have changed to different degrees [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have changed [11]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the polyester industrial chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, have changed [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, geopolitical conflicts lead to increased volatility in the market. Overseas ethylene - based PVC supply is tightened, while domestic ethylene - based enterprises also face raw material supply issues. The demand side is gradually recovering, but the spot supply pressure from the cancellation of March PVC warehouse receipts is large. The cost - side pressure is still being transmitted, and the social inventory pressure has been somewhat alleviated [3]. - For caustic soda, international geopolitical conflicts lead to an expected passive reduction in overseas chlor - alkali plant loads, increasing export inquiries for domestic chlor - alkali products and raising export quotes. The price of 50% caustic soda has weakened, while the 32% caustic soda price has followed the upward trend. The supply - side operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand - side non - aluminum industry has seen an increase in rigid demand procurement, with alumina production showing a slight improvement [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Key Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5353 yuan/ton (-198), the East China basis is -153 yuan/ton (-42), and the South China basis is 27 yuan/ton (+8) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5200 yuan/ton (-240), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5380 yuan/ton (-190) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 3165 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 275 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is -35 yuan/ton (-228), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is -778 yuan/ton (-344), and the PVC export profit is 80.7 US dollars/ton (-58.8) [1]. - PVC inventory and operating rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 33.9 tons (-2.7), the social PVC inventory is 60.0 tons (-1.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 84.66% (+0.27%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 68.66% (+2.81%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 79.67% (+1.06%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 77.9 tons (-0.6) [1]. Market Analysis - Geopolitical conflicts cause increased market volatility. Overseas ethylene - based PVC raw material supply is tightened, and domestic ethylene - based enterprises also face raw material supply problems. The calcium carbide - based PVC has improved profits and increased some loads. The demand side is gradually recovering, but the spot supply pressure from the cancellation of March PVC warehouse receipts is large. The cost - side pressure is still being transmitted, and the social inventory pressure has been somewhat alleviated, but domestic trade transactions are average [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Key Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2340 yuan/ton (-13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -37 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 737 yuan/ton (-1), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1340 yuan/ton (-60) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1299 yuan/ton (-3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 827.2 yuan/ton (-43.1), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 296.16 yuan/ton (-123.13), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1868.03 yuan/ton (-50.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 52.00 tons (+2.00), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.40 tons (-0.20), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.60% (+0.70%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 82.58% (+0.10%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 52.57% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.36% (+0.39%) [2]. Market Analysis - International geopolitical conflicts lead to an expected passive reduction in overseas chlor - alkali plant loads, increasing export inquiries for domestic chlor - alkali products and raising export quotes. The price of 50% caustic soda has weakened, while the 32% caustic soda price has followed the upward trend. The supply - side operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand - side non - aluminum industry has seen an increase in rigid demand procurement, with alumina production showing a slight improvement. Domestic trade follow - up is limited, and caustic soda is accumulating in Shandong and Jiangsu. The price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has increased, while the cost support has weakened [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is 1, indicating a "slightly bullish" outlook [3] Core View - The caustic soda market has experienced a short - term correction due to factors such as short - term obstacles in high - price export transactions, high inventory, and near - month delivery pressure. However, the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve in the later stage, the increase in Weiqiao's purchase price is not over, and the market is expected to operate strongly. It is necessary to continuously track overseas device dynamics and China's export signing situation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - 05 contract futures price: 2340; Shandong's cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price: 760; Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price: 2375; Basis: 35 [1] Spot News - Major alumina manufacturers in Shandong have raised the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 30 yuan/ton since April 1st, with an ex - factory price of 660 yuan/ton [2] Market Condition Analysis - The main logic of short - sellers in the recent caustic soda futures decline lies in near - month delivery pressure and weak follow - up of high - price export orders. High inventory suppresses the spot elasticity of 32% caustic soda, leading to a significant convergence of the caustic soda basis, and the 05 contract is currently basically at par with the spot [3] - Considering that Weiqiao's delivery volume is still low, there is an expectation of a price increase in the purchase price, and 32% caustic soda still has a trend to converge towards 50% caustic soda, so the current valuation has reached a low level [3] - In the medium - to - long term, if the situation in the Middle East has not eased by April, overseas refining enterprises will increase production cuts, and the production cut scale of domestic ethylene - based PVC will also increase significantly, leading to a passive production cut of caustic soda through the chlor - alkali balance mechanism. Also, as a net exporter of caustic soda, the long - term contract supply in the Middle East is hindered, and these orders are in rigid demand, and the purchase is only a matter of time [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the prices of various commodities. The market is highly sensitive to the progress of the cease - fire negotiations and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea [3][4]. - Different sectors have different market trends. For example, in the oil product sector, the prices are affected by supply - demand relations and geopolitical factors; in the chemical industry, the prices are influenced by policies, supply - demand, and cost factors; in the non - ferrous metal sector, the prices are supported by cost and demand factors [3][5][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Logic: The intention of the US and Iran to cease the war has led to a decline in rising oil prices. - Fundamental: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the global crude oil supply is generally tight. Incidents in Ukraine and the Red Sea have further aggravated supply concerns. - Macro: Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have risen, and market sentiment has improved with the easing of the geopolitical situation [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - Logic: The fundamentals provide support, and the downward space for cracking is limited. - Fundamental: High - sulfur fuel oil has strong fundamental support, and the supply is still tight in April. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a tight supply - demand balance, and the supply - side tightening support is strong [5][6]. 3.1.3 LPG - Logic: Geopolitical factors cause repeated disturbances, and there is still support in the short term. - Fundamental: Although the price has decreased due to the US's cease - fire intention, the supply is expected to be tight in the medium term, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [7]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - Logic: Pay attention to geopolitical progress and downstream negative feedback. - Fundamental: The futures price has risen, the spot market has a general trading atmosphere, the supply load has increased, and the demand load has decreased. The mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have increased production cuts [8][9]. 3.3 Coal Chemical Industry 3.3.1 Urea - Logic: Policy and supply - demand are in a stalemate, and the price is in a high - level consolidation. - Fundamental: The market price is relatively stable, the supply is at a high level, the demand is stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [10]. 3.3.2 Methanol - Logic: The tense geopolitical relationship between the US and Iran makes the short - term import shortage difficult to solve, supporting high - level operation, but the risk of chasing high prices is increasing. - Fundamental: The price is in a high - level shock, the port price has declined, and the basis is still strong. The short - term import shortage will support the high - level operation of the price, but attention should be paid to the risk of the reversal of the bullish logic [11]. 3.4 Salt Chemical Industry 3.4.1 Soda Ash - Logic: The rigid demand is weakening, and the supply - demand pressure is large. - Fundamental: The price is weakly stable, the inventory has changed from destocking to stockpiling, and the supply - demand contradiction will continue to increase. The rebound needs supply - side production cuts, but the production - cut drive is not clear [12]. 3.4.2 Glass - Logic: Both supply and demand are weak, and production cuts continue. - Fundamental: The short - term market sentiment is weak, the supply is decreasing, and the market is in a game between low supply and weak demand. In the medium term, the cost pressure has increased, and the support of low supply for the spot price will increase after the demand out of the off - season [13][14]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - Logic: The spot price is loosening, and the export end shows signs of weakening. - Fundamental: The short - term spot price shows a marginal weakening trend, the export demand still has support, but attention should be paid to the price decline risk if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened [15]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - Logic: The price is oscillating strongly. - Fundamental: The upstream mine has disturbances, the processing fee is at a low level, the demand is growing structurally, the inventory is in a state of destocking in some places, and the long - term demand for new energy transformation is beneficial [16]. 3.5.2 Gold - Logic: The price is oscillating strongly. - Fundamental: The monetary policy outlook is uncertain, the Middle East conflict has an impact on inflation and the US dollar index, and the weakening of the US dollar index may drive the rise of the gold price [18]. 3.5.3 Silver - Logic: The price is oscillating strongly. - Fundamental: The market focus is on the Middle East situation and the Fed's interpretation of inflation expectations, and the price trend is full of uncertainties [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Not explicitly stated in the provided content Summary by Categories Black Series - For silicon iron (SF603), the futures price is 5978, the basis is 104, the spot price is 5874, the basis rate is 1.80%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 71.50% [1] - For silicon manganese (SM603), the futures price is 6600, the basis is 156, the spot price is 6444, the basis rate is 2.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 57.30% [1] - For rebar (RB2605), the futures price is 3121, the basis is 99, the spot price is 3220, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 47.10% [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2605), the futures price is 3280, the basis is - 14, the spot price is 3294, the basis rate is - 0.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.60% [1] - For iron ore (I2605), the futures price is 808, the basis is 28, the spot price is 836, the basis rate is 3.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.50% [1] - For coke (J2605), the futures price is 1702, the basis is 54, the spot price is 1756, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 86.80% [1] - For main coking coal (S1.3 G75, Mongolian No.5) at Shaheyi, the futures price is 1149, the basis is 130, the spot price is 1278, the basis rate is 11.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.60% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2605), the futures price is 95340, the basis is 260, the spot price is 95600, the basis rate is 0.27%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 77.70% [1] - For aluminum (AL2605), the futures price is 24610, the basis is - 265, the spot price is 24875, the basis rate is - 1.07%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 8.10% [1] - For alumina (AO2605), the futures price is 2788, the basis is - 39, the spot price is 2827, the basis rate is - 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For zinc (ZN2605), the futures price is 23480, the basis is - 120, the spot price is 23360, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.50% [1] - For tin (SN2605), the futures price is 368000, the basis is 3550, the spot price is 371550, the basis rate is 0.96%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.90% [1] - For nickel (NI2605), the futures price is 135000, the basis is 220, the spot price is 134780, the basis rate is 0.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 65.80% [1] - For stainless steel (SS2605), the futures price is 14160, the basis is 410, the spot price is 14400, the basis rate is 2.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 70.60% [1] - For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the futures price is 157200, the basis is 5800, the spot price is 163000, the basis rate is 3.69%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 97.80% [1] - For industrial silicon (SI2605), the futures price is 8322, the basis is 795, the spot price is 9150, the basis rate is 9.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 53.80% [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2606), the futures price is 1015.7, the basis is - 4.4, the spot price is 1020.10, the basis rate is - 0.43%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.30% [1] - For silver (AG2606), the futures price is 18031.0, the basis is - 95.0, the spot price is 18126.0, the basis rate is - 0.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 7.00% [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2605), the futures price is 2915, the basis is 205, the spot price is 3120, the basis rate is 7.03%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.90% [1] - For soybean oil (Y2605), the futures price is 8668, the basis is 262, the spot price is 8930, the basis rate is 3.02%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 55.40% [1] - For palm oil (P2605), the futures price is 9866, the basis is - 46, the spot price is 9820, the basis rate is - 0.47%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.30% [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM605), the futures price is 2299, the basis is 11, the spot price is 2310, the basis rate is 0.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.70% [1] - For rapeseed oil (OI605), the futures price is 9884, the basis is 516, the spot price is 10400, the basis rate is 5.22%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.70% [1] - For corn (C2605), the futures price is 2351, the basis is 29, the spot price is 2380, the basis rate is 1.23%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.00% [1] - For corn starch (CS2605), the futures price is 2745, the basis is 155, the spot price is 2900, the basis rate is 5.65%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 76.90% [1] - For live pigs (LH2605), the futures price is 9770, the basis is - 420, the spot price is 10190, the basis rate is - 4.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 28.10% [1] - For eggs (D2605), the futures price is 3400, the basis is - 40, the spot price is 3440, the basis rate is - 1.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.40% [1] - For cotton, the futures price is 15295, the basis is 1352, the spot price is 16650, the basis rate is 8.86%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.00% [1] - For sugar (SR605), the futures price is 5398, the basis is 62, the spot price is 5460, the basis rate is 1.15%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.70% [1] - For apples (AP605), the futures price is 9800, the basis is - 26, the spot price is 9826, the basis rate is - 0.26%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.00% [1] - For red dates (CJ605), the futures price is 7900, the basis is - 850, the spot price is 8750, the basis rate is - 9.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 48.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - For paraxylene (PX605), the futures price is 9700.0, the basis is 268.8, the spot price is 9968.77, the basis rate is 2.77%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 92.30% [1] - For PTA (TA605), the futures price is 6684.0, the basis is - 44.0, the spot price is 6640.0, the basis rate is - 0.66%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 42.60% [1] - For ethylene glycol (MEG), the futures price is 5218.0, the basis is 147.0, the spot price is 5365.0, the basis rate is 2.82%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 94.50% [1] - For ethanol (EG2605), the futures price is 8246.0, the basis is 74.0, the spot price is 8320.0, the basis rate is 0.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 62.90% [1] - For styrene (EB2605), the futures price is 10597.0, the basis is 158.0, the spot price is 10755.0, the basis rate is 1.49%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 60.30% [1] - For methanol (MA605), the futures price is 3229.0, the basis is 116.0, the spot price is 3345.0, the basis rate is 3.59%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 84.10% [1] - For urea (UR605), the futures price is 1874.0, the basis is 26.0, the spot price is 1900.0, the basis rate is 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For LLDPE (L2605), the futures price is 8614.0, the basis is 86.0, the spot price is 8700.0, the basis rate is 1.00%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 52.90% [1] - For PP (PP2605), the futures price is 9103.0, the basis is 172.0, the spot price is 9275.0, the basis rate is 1.89%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 72.50% [1] - For PVC (V2605), the futures price is 5353.0, the basis is - 133.0, the spot price is 5220.0, the basis rate is - 2.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 45.10% [1] - For caustic soda (SH605), the futures price is 2340.0, the basis is - 36.9, the spot price is 2303.1, the basis rate is - 1.58%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 41.10% [1] - For LPG (PG2605), the futures price is 6339.0, the basis is 1009.0, the spot price is 7348.0, the basis rate is 15.92%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 95.50% [1] - For asphalt (BU2606), the futures price is 4512.0, the basis is - 92.0, the spot price is 4420.0, the basis rate is - 2.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.80% [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2605), the futures price is 17350.0, the basis is 1150.0, the spot price is 18500.0, the basis rate is 6.63%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 99.50% [1] - For glass (FG605), the futures price is 1019.0, the basis is - 67.0, the spot price is 952.0, the basis rate is - 7.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 56.09% [1] - For soda ash (SA605), the futures price is 1177.0, the basis is - 20.0, the spot price is 1157.0, the basis rate is - 1.73%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 46.84% [1] - For pure benzene (BZ2605), the futures price is 8790.0, the basis is 150.0, the spot price is 8940.0, the basis rate is 1.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.80% [1] - For propylene (PL2605), the futures price is 8795.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 8750.0, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.90% [1] - For bottle chips (PR2605), the futures price is 8525.0, the basis is 335.0, the spot price is 8190.0, the basis rate is 4.09%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.50% [1] - For natural rubber (RU2605), the futures price is 16345.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 16300.0, the basis rate is - 0.28%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 90.35% [1] Financial Assets - For IF2606.CFE, the futures price is 4450.0493, the basis is - 74.2493, the spot price is 4375.8, the basis rate is - 1.70%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 2.50% [1] - For IH2606.CFE, the futures price is 2837.3064, the basis is - 22.9064, the spot price is 2814.4, the basis rate is - 0.81%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 5.70% [1] - For IC2606.CFE, the futures price is 7753.7234, the basis is - 193.1234, the spot price is 7560.6, the basis rate is - 2.55%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 0.30% [1] - For IM2606.CFE, the futures price is 7619.8503, the basis is - 240.4503, the spot price is 7379.4, the basis rate

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry - wide investment ratings. However, it provides trend strength for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, LLDPE, PP, LPG, and propylene have a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook; while most other commodities such as rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, etc., have a trend strength of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook; and PX, PTA, and MEG have a trend strength of - 1, showing a relatively negative short - term outlook [11][13][16]. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes various energy and chemical commodities, highlighting the impact of factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and cost changes on commodity prices. Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, are a major factor affecting the market, causing supply disruptions and price fluctuations. For example, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz affects the supply of raw materials such as naphtha and crude oil, which in turn impacts downstream products [22][58]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations. Some commodities face supply contractions, such as PX and MEG in April, while others have stable or increasing supply, like PVC. Demand also varies, with some downstream industries showing weak demand, such as the textile and paper industries, while others have relatively stable or growing demand [4][8][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a short - term oscillating market, there is a contradiction between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand. Although the inventory is sufficient, supply may decrease in April. It is recommended to go long on SC and short on PX, and go long on BZ and short on PX [4][11]. - **PTA**: Also in a short - term oscillating market, with sufficient supply in the short term but expected supply contraction in April. It is advisable not to chase high prices but to buy on dips and maintain a positive spread operation when the 5 - 9 spread is below 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **MEG**: In a short - term high - level oscillating market. Supply is expected to decrease in April, with a reduction in imports from the Middle East and an increase in exports. The port inventory is expected to decline faster, and the 5 - 9 spread should be in a positive spread operation [12]. Rubber - In a wide - range oscillating market. As of March 29, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased slightly. Some tire enterprises plan to have short - term maintenance, and the upward space of the natural rubber market is limited due to factors such as the high level of overseas raw material prices and the weakening boost of synthetic rubber [13][14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - In an intraday wide - range oscillating market. The inventory of butadiene decreased this week, and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased. The basic situation provides support for prices, but geopolitical conflicts may increase price volatility [16][17][18]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Supply contraction continues, and there is a structural differentiation. The cost of PE increases due to geopolitical factors, and the supply of standard products is expected to decline in April [20][22]. - **PP**: In April, the number of cracking and PDH maintenance increases, providing strong supply support. The cost of C3 is supported, and the demand improves after the resumption of work by downstream enterprises [21][22]. Caustic Soda - At a low valuation level. Although there is short - term pressure such as delivery and high inventory, the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve in the long - term, and the market is expected to be strong. It is necessary to track overseas device dynamics and Chinese export signing situations [26][28]. Pulp - In an oscillating operation. The demand is weak, the market trading of softwood pulp is light, and the price of hardwood pulp is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory reduction at ports and the change in downstream replenishment willingness [30][33]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The downstream orders are weak, and the processing plants purchase on demand. The trading is slightly slow [35][36]. Methanol - In a high - level oscillating market. The spot price is adjusted differently, and the port inventory continues to decline. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the price is expected to be strong, and the upper limit of valuation is affected by geopolitical factors [38][41][42]. Urea - In a short - term oscillating operation. The domestic basic situation is neutral to strong, and the price is expected to be range - bound. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of macro - information on the market sentiment [44][45][46]. Styrene - In a relatively strong oscillating market. The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease in April and May, and the export of styrene increases. The market is expected to continue to reduce inventory and follow the price increase [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The production of soda ash enterprises is stable, the downstream demand is tepid, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly adjusted [53][55]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks still exist, and supply disruptions occur frequently. Saudi Aramco's CP price in April increased. There are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [58][64][65]. - **Propylene**: The basic situation provides support, and the trend is still relatively strong. The price of propylene has certain fluctuations, and the operating rates of related industries have changed [59][63]. PVC - In a wide - range oscillating market. In the short - term, high inventory needs time to digest, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced PVC. In the long - term, geopolitical factors and cost increases will support the market [67]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price decreased, and it maintains a high level in the short - term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market rebounds [70]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - The spot loading is under pressure. The 04 contract oscillates and consolidates, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors. The supply of shipping capacity has certain changes, and the demand and freight rates are affected by multiple factors [72][80][82]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: In a high - level oscillating market. The futures price decreased, the factory's spot price was stable, and the sales rate was low [85][86]. - **Bottle Chip**: In a high - level oscillating market. The upstream raw materials fluctuated and decreased, the factory's quotation was mostly reduced, and the market trading atmosphere rebounded slightly [85][86]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The price in the Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, the paper mills are producing normally, the dealers' enthusiasm for picking up goods is not high, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists [88][89][91]. Pure Benzene - In a relatively strong oscillating market. The port inventory decreased, the price in the Shandong market increased, and the market price fluctuated due to macro - news and production reduction expectations [93][94][95].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - With the supply pressure from the rubber tapping season and the support from high overseas costs and geopolitical events boosting synthetic rubber, the subsequent rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the conflict between the United States and Iran [1]. Polyolefins - The pricing power returns to hedging merchants, the basis strengthens, and the transaction volume increases. PP and PE continue to see a reduction in supply and an increase in demand. PP is destocking, while PE inventory is accumulating. In April, it is expected that the spot market will tighten and the basis will strengthen, driven by the "strong cost + reduced supply" logic [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is weak. The cost - end support has weakened, but the downside space is expected to be limited. It is generally viewed as oscillating, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1,150 - 1,250. Short positions can be held. - For glass, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased, the demand is sluggish, the cost support has weakened, and there is still inventory - removal pressure. It is also viewed as oscillating. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has generally declined. The market is affected by the weakening of geopolitical risk premiums and concerns about high - price demand suppression. It is expected to be in a weak - oscillating pattern, but the supply shortage still provides fundamental support. Attention should be paid to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the futures are weakly oscillating, the supply has increased slightly, the inventory has accumulated, and the downstream demand increment is less than expected. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. - For PVC, the futures have fallen significantly, the export demand is poor, the market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price has a strong bottom support. It may be weakly adjusted in the short term [5]. Urea - The urea futures are weakly oscillating, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased slightly, the inventory is at a relatively low level, but the supply is still loose. The demand is in a transition period, and the market lacks clear upward or downward drivers. It is expected to continue narrow - range consolidation, with the main contract focusing on the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading theme is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillating pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. Attention should be paid to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern, with a short - term tight - balance supply - demand situation. The supply side is expected to see an increase in far - month imports, while the demand side is generally positive, but the MTO profit is weakening. Two major risks need to be watched: geopolitical easing and continuous compression of MTO profit [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, the demand is expected to improve, and the short - term price may fluctuate with the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see, and shrink the EB05 - BZ05 spread when it is high. - For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening slightly, but the supply - demand situation is still tight. The short - term absolute price fluctuates with the oil price, and the same strategy as for pure benzene is recommended [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply - demand is weak in the short term, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and the price has support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the oil price trend. - For PTA, the short - term self - driving force is limited, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. The same strategy as for PX is recommended. - For ethylene glycol, the cost support is strong, the supply is expected to decline significantly in the second quarter, and the price has upward momentum. However, attention should be paid to the risk of a pull - back. - For short - fiber, the supply - demand is weakening, and it mainly fluctuates with raw materials. The same strategy as for PX is recommended, and the PF processing margin can be expanded at a low level below 800. - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and the processing margin is expected to be strong. The PR unilateral strategy is the same as for PTA, and the main - contract processing margin is expected to be strong [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of most natural rubber varieties have declined slightly, with the Yunnan Guofu full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai dropping 0.31%, and the Thai standard mixed rubber price falling 0.63%. The basis of full - latex has increased, and the non - standard price difference has also increased [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased by 4.70%, the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 8.44%, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 120.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand in January increased by 11.09%, while that in Indonesia and India decreased. The tire export volume in February decreased by 12.40%, and the natural rubber import volume decreased by 28.46%. The inventory in the bonded area increased by 0.85%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 9.23% [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined, with the L2605 closing price dropping 2.16%. The L59 spread, PP59 spread, and LP05 spread have also changed [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Data**: The PE device operating rate has decreased by 4.79%, the downstream weighted operating rate has increased by 5.75%. The PE enterprise inventory has increased by 3.45%, and the social inventory has decreased by 6.58%. The PP enterprise inventory has decreased by 16.19%, and the trader inventory has decreased by 8.18% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass and soda ash are stable. The glass 2605 contract has dropped 2.02%, and the soda ash 2605 contract has dropped 2.49%. The 05 basis of glass and soda ash has increased [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash production capacity utilization rate has decreased by 5.22%, and the weekly production has decreased by 5.22%. The float - glass daily melting volume has decreased by 0.62%, and the photovoltaic glass daily melting volume has decreased by 2.28%. The glass factory inventory has decreased by 1.09%, and the soda ash factory inventory has decreased by 0.10% [3]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The main LPG contract PG2605 has dropped 4.04%, and the PG05 - 06 and PG05 - 07 spreads have decreased. The South China spot price has decreased by 0.28%, and the deliverable spot price has decreased by 1.24% [4]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio has decreased by 4.34%, the port inventory has increased by 0.68%, and the port storage capacity ratio has increased by 0.67%. The upstream - main refinery operating rate has decreased by 3.54%, and the downstream - PDH operating rate has decreased by 3.09% [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda has decreased by 4.3%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - method PVC has decreased by 3.9%. The SH2605 and V2605 contracts have also declined [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate has increased by 0.8%, and the PVC total operating rate has increased by 1.0%. The alumina industry operating rate has increased by 0.1%, and the Longzhong sample PVC pipe operating rate has increased by 5.1% [5]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The urea futures are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The main contract has dropped 2.71%. The 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 spreads have changed [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production has decreased by 0.36%, the production capacity utilization rate has decreased by 4.17%, and the factory - warehouse inventory has decreased by 13.40% [6]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude has dropped 3.18%, WTI crude has dropped 1.46%, and SC crude has dropped 1.80%. The Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 spreads have increased [7]. - **Refined Oil Products**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have all declined. The refined - oil cracking spreads in the United States, Europe, and Singapore have also decreased [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices have declined, with the MA2605 closing price dropping 2.71%. The MA59 spread has decreased by 3.90%, and the MTO05盘面 profit has increased by 44.94% [9]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The methanol enterprise inventory has decreased by 10.71%, the port inventory has decreased by 8.42%, and the social inventory has decreased by 9.05%. The upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate has increased by 1.74%, and the downstream - external - procurement MTO device operating rate has increased by 10.42% [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude and WTI crude have changed. The price of pure benzene and styrene has declined. The EB05 - BZ05 spread has increased by 4.6% [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports has decreased by 3.3%, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports has decreased by 4.6%. The domestic pure benzene operating rate has increased by 6.4%, and the styrene operating rate has decreased by 0.7% [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed. The prices of PTA, MEG, and polyester products have also fluctuated [11]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The MEG port inventory has increased by 3.5%, and the arrival expectation has decreased by 33.3%. The Asian PX operating rate has decreased by 2.8%, and the PTA operating rate has increased by 3.6% [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L - Oscillatory [1] - PP - Oscillatory [1] - PVC - Weak [1] - PTA/PX - Cautiously Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol - Bullish [5] - Methanol - Cautiously Bullish [5] - Urea - Bullish [5] - Caustic Soda - Weak [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the investment prospects of multiple chemical products, taking into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, cost support, and policy impacts. Each product's market situation is unique, with some showing potential for upward movement while others are expected to remain stable or weak [1][4][5]. Summaries by Product L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 8,614 yuan/ton, down 2.2% from the previous day. The basis of L05 was -124 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 149 yuan/ton. Social inventory increased counter - seasonally [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply contraction intensified, geopolitical conflicts eased, and the market was in high - level consolidation. New plant overhauls in domestic petrochemicals increased the parking ratio, and the supply - demand pattern was gradually tightening, providing support at the bottom of the market [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 9,103 yuan/ton, down 1.8% from the previous day. The basis of PP05 was 75 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 366 yuan/ton [10][11]. - **Basic Logic**: PDH cost support was strong, supply contraction continued, and the supply - demand pattern was improving. PDH profit still had room for upward repair. In the short term, it was mainly affected by geopolitical factors [12]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5,353 yuan/ton, down 3.6% from the previous day. The basis of V05 was -133 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was -106 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply had a slow growth trend, and fundamental drivers were weak. There was a divergence in the start - up of ethylene and calcium carbide processes. High inventory and weak basis limited the upward space of the market [16]. PTA/PX - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 6,778 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan from the previous day. The PXN was 106.2 dollars/ton, down 123 dollars [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts persisted, and the Strait of Hormuz was substantially blocked. TA valuation was high, and supply and demand were slightly loose. The market was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [18]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 5,279 yuan/ton, up 221 yuan from the previous day. The basis of EG05 was -129 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was 146 yuan/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts showed no obvious signs of easing. Domestic and overseas plants were continuously reducing their loads. Import volume was expected to decrease in March - April, and inventory pressure was expected to ease [20]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol market showed a back - structure, with a weakening basis and monthly spread. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation was high, and the fundamental outlook was improving. Supply was increasing domestically and decreasing overseas, and downstream demand was weakly stable. Port inventory was accelerating its decline, with stable cost support [23]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,877 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day. The basis of Shandong small - particle urea was 23 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The price difference between domestic and overseas urea was large, but exports were restricted before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply was still at a high level, demand was recovering, and the market was expected to fluctuate within a range. The cost side provided support [25][26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2,340 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The basis of SH05 was -37 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was -177 yuan/ton [28][29]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong continued to increase, and the basis was approaching parity. Caution was advised when short - selling. The start - up rate was expected to continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring overhauls and export orders [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a sideways pattern [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting on rebounds for glass [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on rallies for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; suggesting waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin; expecting gold, silver and lithium carbonate to move in a sideways pattern [1][14][20][24] - **Energy Chemicals**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, polyolefin, and rubber; shorting on rallies for soda ash; range trading for urea and methanol [1][25][27][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for cotton and cotton yarn; expecting apples and jujubes to move in a sideways pattern [1][38][39] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Rolling short positions at high levels for the 05 and 07 contracts of live pigs; shorting cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for eggs; hedging cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for corn; paying attention to the support performance at 2900 - 2950 for the 05 contract of soybean meal; bullish - biased sideways movement and rolling long strategy for oils and fats [1][43][45][47] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products based on comprehensive analysis of macro - economic factors, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit conditions. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as the Middle East conflict on global markets, and suggests corresponding trading strategies according to the different characteristics of each product [1][5][15] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to move in a bullish - biased sideways pattern. The willingness of the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in US stocks, and stock indices may be bullish - biased [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. After the end of the quarter, the proportion of bonds in asset allocation may gradually increase [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the inventory transfer of coking coal and coke is smooth [8][9] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The futures price is below the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, and the demand is still recovering [10] - **Glass**: Expected to be weak. The hype of coal cost has weakened, and the demand in the peak season is not good [11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level sideways movement. Affected by macro - factors, there is a downward risk, but domestic inventory reduction and the consumption peak season will provide support [14][15] - **Aluminum**: High - level sideways movement. Supply concerns may boost the price, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [17] - **Nickel**: Sideways movement. The support at the ore end is strong, but the lack of demand and macro - disturbances limit the upward drive [18][19] - **Tin**: Sideways movement. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement [20] - **Silver and Gold**: Sideways movement. Affected by the Middle East situation and economic data, the medium - term price center has moved up [21][22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound sideways movement. Supply and demand are both increasing, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [24] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, there are opportunities for short - term rebound and long - term industrial upgrading [25] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by spring maintenance and downstream replenishment, exports may increase [27] - **Styrene**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with low inventory pressure, it is expected to maintain de - stocking [28] - **Polyolefin**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with marginal improvement in supply - demand [29][30] - **Rubber**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, it is in a game between synthetic rubber support and inventory pressure [31] - **Urea**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supply is at a high level, and demand is supported by agricultural and compound fertilizer needs, with smooth de - stocking [32][33] - **Methanol**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and inventory has decreased [34] - **Soda Ash**: Shorting on rallies. Supply is in excess, and the price may continue to be under pressure [35][36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Global cotton supply is increasing, but domestic consumption is strong, and the price of chemical fiber has a positive impact [38] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. The market is polarized, with good - quality goods being in high demand [39] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the enthusiasm of merchants to restock is not high [41] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Bottom - building sideways movement. In the short term, the supply exceeds the demand, and in the long term, the price may rise after the supply tightens [43] - **Eggs**: Bearish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, the price increase is weak, and in the long term, it is in a state of bottom - building [45] - **Corn**: Range - bound sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively balanced, and the near - month contract can be hedged on weak rebounds [47] - **Soybean Meal**: High - level sideways movement. The 05 contract should pay attention to the support at around 2900 [47] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by palm oil de - stocking and the B50 plan in Indonesia, but the supply will be relatively loose in the second quarter [53]