股指期货IF2506
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宏观及期指点评:美国联邦法院阻止特朗普4月2日关税政策生效,股指期货止跌上涨
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 08:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The U.S. Federal Court's decision to block Trump's April 2 tariff policy from taking effect has boosted market risk appetite, which is expected to help the stock index futures oscillate upward in the short term. The report provides intraday and May 2025 trend forecasts for four major stock index futures contracts, including IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 [2][7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook Highlights - On May 29, the main contracts of stock index futures IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 opened slightly higher. After opening, they rose, encountered resistance, and then fell back, followed by an oscillating upward trend. IF2506 and IH2506 rose slightly, while IC2506 and IM2506 showed relatively strong slight increases [2]. - The U.S. Federal Court's blockage of Trump's April 2 tariff policy is expected to help the stock index futures oscillate upward in the short term [2]. - Forecasts for intraday trends: - IF2506 is likely to oscillate strongly, targeting resistance levels at 3850 and 3864 points (3864 points has stronger resistance), with support levels at 3798 and 3775 points (3775 points has stronger support) [2][7][8]. - IH2506 is likely to oscillate strongly, targeting resistance levels at 2689 and 2699 points (2699 points has stronger resistance), with support levels at 2658 and 2646 points (2646 points has stronger support) [2][8][9]. - IC2506 is likely to oscillate strongly, targeting resistance levels at 5700 and 5749 points (5749 points has stronger resistance), with support levels at 5560 and 5549 points (5549 points has stronger support) [3][9][10]. - IM2506 is likely to oscillate strongly, targeting resistance levels at 6038 and 6102 points (6102 points has stronger resistance), with support levels at 5905 and 5873 points (5873 points has stronger support) [3][10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Stock Market News - On May 28, the U.S. Federal Court blocked Trump's April 2 tariff policy from taking effect and ruled that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries that export more to the U.S. than they import [2][4]. - The lawsuit was filed by the Freedom and Justice Center on behalf of five U.S. small businesses affected by the tariffs, marking the first major legal challenge to Trump's tariff policy [4]. - On April 2, Trump signed an executive order on so - called "reciprocal tariffs," announcing a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and higher tariffs on some [4]. - The Trump administration filed an appeal notice minutes after the ruling, and the White House spokesperson condemned the ruling. The ruling gives the executive branch up to 10 days to stop collecting tariffs [6]. 3.3 Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the following trends are expected for the main futures contracts on May 29: - IF2506 opened slightly higher, rose, encountered resistance, and then oscillated upward. It closed at 3839.0 points at noon, up 0.85%. It failed to break through the resistance at 3850 points and the 10 - day moving average, but showed a short - term rebound [7]. - IH2506 opened slightly higher, rose, encountered resistance, and then oscillated upward. It closed at 2683.4 points at noon, up 0.61%. It failed to break through the resistance at 2699 points and the 10 - day moving average, but showed a short - term rebound [8]. - IC2506 opened slightly higher, rose, encountered resistance, and then oscillated upward. It closed at 5652.0 points at noon, up 1.59%. It failed to break through the resistance at 5700 points but broke through multiple moving averages and showed a short - term rebound [9]. - IM2506 opened slightly higher, rose, encountered resistance, and then oscillated upward. It closed at 6004.0 points at noon, up 1.89%. It failed to break through the resistance at 6037.8 points but broke through multiple moving averages and showed a short - term rebound [10]. - Forecasts for May 2025 trends: - The IF main contract is likely to oscillate strongly in a wide range, targeting resistance levels at 3933 and 4004 points, with support levels at 3700 and 3675 points [10]. - The IH main contract is likely to oscillate strongly in a wide range, targeting resistance levels at 2766 and 2800 points, with support levels at 2600 and 2572 points [11]. - The IC main contract is likely to oscillate strongly in a wide range, targeting resistance levels at 5759 and 5962 points, with support levels at 5434 and 5345 points [11]. - The IM main contract is likely to oscillate strongly in a wide range, targeting resistance levels at 6196 and 6332 points, with support levels at 5757 and 5657 points [11].