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巨星科技(002444):美国地产叠加消费拐点,多周期共振增长可期
CMS· 2025-12-16 06:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the U.S. housing market and consumer spending, with a projected revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.38% from 2017 to 2024, significantly outperforming the industry [7]. - The company has a strong presence in the U.S. market, with over 90% of its revenue coming from overseas, primarily from the U.S. tools industry [7]. - The company is expanding its product categories and channels, including partnerships with major retailers and online platforms like Amazon, where it has seen over 50% annual growth in sales [7]. - The report forecasts a recovery in the company's performance, with expected revenue growth of 3% in 2025, 26% in 2026, and 19% in 2027, alongside net profit growth of 7%, 31%, and 26% respectively [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company's total revenue is projected to reach 10,930 million in 2023, increasing to 22,801 million by 2027, with a year-on-year growth of -13% in 2023, followed by 35% in 2024 [2][16]. - Operating profit is expected to grow from 1,997 million in 2023 to 5,006 million in 2027, with a growth rate of 18% in 2023 and 39% in 2024 [2][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.42 in 2023 to 3.42 in 2027, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 25.3 to 10.5 over the same period [2][16]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 12.0% in 2023 to 18.2% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [16]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown strong performance, with absolute returns of 16% over one month, 47% over six months, and 34% over twelve months [5]. - The current stock price is 35.83 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 42.8 billion yuan [3].