电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 5 月 8 日 603986.SH 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 5 月 7 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《兆易创新》20241106 《兆易创新》20240821 《兆易创新》20240423 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电子：半导体 证券分析师：苏凌瑶 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 130.35 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 26.6 25.1 (5.9) 55.1 相对上证综指 24.1 17.1 (7.1) 48.9 发行股数 (百万) 664.06 流通股 (百万) 662.99 (21%) (2%) 17% 36% 55% 74% May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 兆易创新 上证综指 | 流通股 (百万) | 662.99 | | --- | --- | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, driven by improved market demand and optimized product offerings [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.103 billion yuan, up 584.21% [1][2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.909 billion yuan, a 17.32% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 235 million yuan, growing by 14.57% [1][2] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 38.00%, an increase of 3.58 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 14.97%, up 12.17 percentage points [2] Market and Product Analysis - The recovery in downstream market demand led to increased customer orders and sales across various sectors, including consumer electronics, networking, and computing [2] - The revenue from storage chips reached 5.194 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of approximately 40.27%, reflecting a 7.28 percentage point increase [3] - The MCU and analog products generated revenue of 1.706 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 36.50%, although this represented a decrease of 6.60 percentage points [3] - Sensor products achieved revenue of 448 million yuan, with a gross margin of 16.46%, showing a slight increase of 0.46 percentage points [3] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to see further performance recovery, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 2.26 yuan, 3.06 yuan, and 3.91 yuan respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4] - The company's competitive position in the industry, along with its diversified product offerings, supports a favorable outlook for future performance [4]

24 年公司实现营收73.56 亿元（yoy+27.7%），归母净利润11.03 亿元（yoy+584.2%），符合前期预 告。1Q25 实现营收19.09 亿元（yoy：+17.3%，qoq：+11.9%），归母净利润2.35 亿元（yoy：+14.6%， qoq：-13.2%）。 风险提示：新产品研发不及预期，产品价格持续下跌，市场竞争加剧。 1Q25 回顾：营收逆势实现环比增长，产品结构优化带动毛利率环比改善24 年公司存储、MCU 及模拟 产品销量均创历史新高：1）存储业务收入51.94亿元（yoy：+27.4%），其中自有品牌DRAM 市场拓展 成效显著，营收超过翻倍增长；2）MCU 业务收入17.06 亿元（yoy：+29.6%），得益于能源、光模块 等需求的拉动，以及网通、计算领域需求显著增长，出货量5.4 亿颗（21 年3.9 亿颗）；3）传感器业务 收入4.48 亿元（yoy：+27.2%）。受国补政策及抢出口拉动，同时公司Flash、MCU 等业务在工业、网 通等领域延续良好增长态势，1Q25 公司营收逆势实现环比增长。1Q25 公司综合毛利率37.44% （yoy：-0.72pct，qo ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 139.10 RMB [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 7.356 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 27.7%, and a net profit of 1.103 billion RMB, up 584.2% year-over-year [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.909 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 17.3% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11.9%, with a net profit of 235 million RMB, up 14.6% year-over-year but down 13.2% quarter-over-quarter [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to government subsidies boosting demand in mobile phones, home appliances, and wearables, as well as increased storage capacity needs driven by AI PCs and servers [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's storage, MCU, and analog products achieved record sales in 2024, with storage revenue reaching 5.194 billion RMB (up 27.4% year-over-year), MCU revenue at 1.706 billion RMB (up 29.6% year-over-year), and sensor revenue at 448 million RMB (up 27.2% year-over-year) [2]. - The overall gross margin for Q1 2025 was 37.44%, showing a quarter-over-quarter improvement of 4.27 percentage points, primarily due to product mix optimization [2]. Business Outlook - For 2025, the company expects continued growth across all business segments, with DRAM prices showing signs of recovery in the second half of the year and custom storage projects advancing in mobile, AI PC, and automotive sectors [3]. - The MCU segment is anticipated to benefit from domestic substitution trends, with market share growth in industrial, white goods, and automotive sectors [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1.514 billion RMB, 1.910 billion RMB, and 2.302 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected revenue growth rate of 28.02% in 2025 [4][6]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 2.28 RMB, with a PE ratio of 49.41 [6][4].