Core Viewpoint - The foldable screen market is experiencing a tug-of-war between excitement and stagnation, with manufacturers launching new products while facing inherent challenges such as high prices and quality inconsistencies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Honor and Xiaomi have recently launched new foldable models, indicating a competitive push in the foldable screen segment [1]. - IDC predicts that the foldable screen market will enter a "small year" by 2025, with manufacturers adopting more conservative strategies due to fluctuating market growth [1][3]. - Gold Yuan Securities forecasts that by 2025, global foldable phone shipments will increase, with China's market share rising to 31%, marking it as a "second growth curve" for smartphones [3]. Group 2: Consumer Sentiment - Many consumers find foldable screens appealing but face practical issues, leading to limited repurchase intentions [4][6]. - Despite curiosity about foldable devices, actual sales remain lower than traditional models due to concerns over price and usability [5][6]. - A significant portion of mainstream applications still uses simple adaptation methods, resulting in poor user experiences [7]. Group 3: Technical Challenges - The high cost of foldable devices is primarily due to the expensive components like hinges and flexible screens, which account for over 60% of the BOM cost [6]. - Foldable devices often compromise on core specifications to maintain their unique form factor, leading to a perception of inadequate value compared to traditional smartphones [6][7]. - Durability issues persist, with high repair costs and limited availability of parts contributing to consumer hesitance [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - TrendForce predicts that foldable phone shipments will reach 19.83 million units by 2025, maintaining a penetration rate of approximately 1.6% [8]. - The anticipated entry of Apple into the foldable market with the iPhone Fold in 2026 is seen as a potential catalyst for industry growth, although its impact on overall sales remains uncertain [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that while Apple's brand strength could enhance foldable screen adoption, other factors like pricing and application relevance may continue to limit broader market penetration [10][11].

Core Insights - The foldable screen market is experiencing a tug-of-war between excitement and stagnation, with new product launches from major players like Honor and Xiaomi indicating a competitive landscape, yet data shows a decline in growth rates and challenges in market penetration [1][2][4] Market Performance - In 2024, China's foldable screen shipments reached 9.17 million units, marking a 30.8% year-on-year increase, but the fourth quarter saw a decline of 9.6% compared to the previous year, ending a streak of nine consecutive quarters of growth [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw shipments of 2.84 million units, a 53.1% year-on-year increase, but the second quarter dropped to 2.21 million units, reflecting a 14% year-on-year decline, indicating volatility in market performance [2] Industry Trends - The foldable screen segment is projected to account for 31% of the global market by 2025, becoming a significant growth driver in the high-end smartphone market [4] - Despite ongoing product and technological advancements, the market is facing challenges in expanding its user base and attracting new customers, as the novelty of foldable designs is wearing off [5][6] Consumer Sentiment - Many consumers perceive foldable screens as "good-looking but not practical," with high prices and usability issues hindering their transition from novelty items to essential devices [8] - The average price for foldable devices remains high, with some models priced over 5,000 yuan, leading consumers to question the value compared to traditional smartphones [8][9] Future Outlook - TrendForce predicts that foldable phone shipments will reach 19.8 million units in 2025, maintaining a penetration rate of approximately 1.6% [10] - The anticipated entry of Apple into the foldable market with the iPhone Fold in 2026 is expected to be a significant catalyst for industry growth, although its impact on overall market dynamics remains uncertain [11][12]

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