此外，Honor虽上半年无新品上市，仍以8.4%的市场份额稳居第二，展现出强大的用户粘性；OPPO调整产品节奏后，率先推出搭载旗舰芯片的折 叠屏机型，以6.1%的份额位列第三；小米和vivo的新品于年中亮相，暂居第四、第五位，展现出市场的多元活力。 IDC最新预测显示，2025年中国折叠屏手机市场出货量预计达947万台，同比增长3.3%，基本与去年持平。当前，随着元器件技术发展进入瓶颈 期，折叠屏手机在"轻薄化"方面的突破空间逐渐收窄，未来硬件领域的创新将更多聚焦于产品形态的持续迭代。创新的三折叠与阔折叠形态，预计 将吸引更多厂商跟进布局，推动形态创新走向纵深。 8月26日，国际数据公司(IDC)发布最新的手机季度预测报告，预计2025年全球折叠屏手机市场出货量约1983万台，同比增长6.0%；至2029年，全 球折叠屏手机出货量预计将会接近2729万台，五年复合增长率达到7.8%。 报告指出，中国头部厂商持续加码折叠屏手机赛道，自2023年起，中国正式超越其他市场，成为全球最大的折叠屏手机市场。依托成熟的本土供 应链体系、消费者对前沿科技的高接受度，以及厂商对用户需求的精准捕捉，中国在折叠屏手机的市场主导地 ...

人民财讯8月26日电，国际数据公司(IDC)最新发布的手机季度预测报告显示，预计2025年全球折叠屏手 机市场出货量约1983万台，同比增长6.0%；至2029年，全球折叠屏手机出货量预计将会接近2729万 台，五年复合增长率达到7.8%。 ...

产业经济周报 证券分析师 陈梦洁 资格编号：S0120524030002 邮箱：chenmj3＠tebon.com.cn 周天昊 资格编号： S0120525040002 邮箱：zhouth＠tebon.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 产业经济周报 2025 年 08 月 25 日 [Table_Main] 消费焕新延续，液冷赋能数据中心， 折叠屏或打开成长空间 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点：近期产业趋势延续分化格局：新消费板块热度持续传导至 A 股，短期 或受中报扰动出现阶段性调整，中长期主线仍在情绪消费、渠道革新及品牌出海； 高端制造方面，液冷技术成为应对算力与能耗矛盾的关键路径，具备提升效率与降 低能耗的双重价值；硬科技领域，折叠屏手机在价格下探与苹果入局的催化下，有 望带动渗透率提升并利好上游供应链。整体看，消费升级与科技迭代共振，产业机 遇与结构性机会并存。 高端制造看点：数据中心作为现代信息基础设施，其能源消耗问题日益凸显。伴随 人工智能、大数据及云计算等应用加速渗透，能耗持续攀升，对环境与经济均形成 压力，行业可持续发展需求不断增强 ...

网约车平台集体降低抽成比例，"黑神话"新作发布冲上热搜第一。 阿里官网重新归纳业务板块 8月22日，阿里巴巴官网"我们的业务"板块从六大业务集团+其他业务变更为阿里中国电商集团、阿里国 际数字商业集团、云智能集团及所有其他业务。记者了解到，此次官网业务板块划分并不代表组织架构 调整，内部汇报暂未发生变化。 点评：这次变更实际体现出了阿里过去一年对业务的重新梳理。随着内外部环境的变化，阿里对集团内 部资源的整合思路也有了新变化。一方面是电商的战场越扩越大了。新的四大业务板块划分中，阿里巴 巴电商事业群CEO蒋凡掌管了两个板块，将负责阿里电商的全盘谋划。另一方面，阿里对核心业务、非 核心业务的划分进一步明确。随着菜鸟、大文娱集团等不再单列，非核心业务独立经营的信号更凸显， 尽快实现盈利是阿里对"其他业务"的要求。 智元称现金流至少能撑三年 8月21日，智元机器人在上海举办了首届合作伙伴生态大会。智元机器人创始人兼董事长邓泰华坦言， 智元的现金流能在公司没有任何业务产生收入的情况下，支撑公司经营三年，也透露未来三年将投入数 十亿元，孵化超过50个早期项目打造产业生态。在大会上，智元还发布了一个集成二次开发能力的灵创 ...

AI算力军备竞赛延伸至战场。 一块小小的电路板（PCB），在A股市场爆发出惊人的能量。 Wind统计显示，截至8月22日，中信PCB指数自4月低点以来最大涨幅超过140%。 今年以来，A股PCB板块近20只个股涨幅超过1倍。与市值一路高歌猛进相呼应的是，头部PCB产业链公司的业绩也在持续增长。 这背后的主要推手便是AI。AI浪潮下，算力需求的爆炸式增长，成为PCB行业成长的最大。 PCB板块行情发力的主要逻辑是什么？行情是否具有持续性？经过持续上涨，是否已呈现局部泡沫？中长期而言，PCB板块的产业趋势和配置价值如何？ 为此，中国基金报记者采访了： 永赢基金权益投资部基金经理任桀 上银混合发起式基金经理赵治烨、惠军 德邦基金基金经理雷涛 在上述基金经理看来，这轮PCB行情确实有坚实的产业逻辑，AI算力需求的爆发性增长是核心驱动力，行情或具备戴维斯双击的潜力。 大家普遍认为，虽然近期板块涨幅较大，但对应后续的盈利预期，当前板块PE并不高。市场并非在对整个PCB板块进行无差别炒作，而是在为那些能够 切实分享到AI红利、拥有技术壁垒和客户壁垒的公司的"确定性"支付溢价。 此外，基金经理们认为，从中报数据来看，行业向好 ...

【导读】基金经理解读PCB及消费电子投资机会 一块小小的电路板（PCB），在A股市场爆发出惊人的能量。 统计显示，截至8月22日，中信PCB指数自4月低点以来最大涨幅超过140%。 今年以来，A股PCB板块近20只个股涨幅超过1倍。与市值一路高歌猛进相呼应的是，头部PCB产业链 公司的业绩也在持续增长。 AI算力军备竞赛延伸至PCB战场。 这背后的主要推手便是AI。AI浪潮下，算力需求的爆炸式增长，成为PCB行业成长的最大驱动力。 PCB板块行情发力的主要逻辑是什么？行情是否具有持续性？经过持续上涨，是否已呈现局部泡沫？中 长期而言，PCB板块的产业趋势和配置价值如何？ 在上述基金经理看来，这轮PCB行情确实有坚实的产业逻辑，AI算力需求的爆发性增长是核心驱动力， 行情或具备戴维斯双击的潜力。 大家普遍认为，虽然近期板块涨幅较大，但对应后续的盈利预期，当前板块PE并不高。市场并非在对 整个PCB板块进行无差别炒作，而是在为那些能够切实分享到AI红利、拥有技术壁垒和客户壁垒的公司 的"确定性"支付溢价。 此外，基金经理们认为，从中报数据来看，行业向好的信号非常明确。中长期来看，PCB行业的成长逻 辑也非常清晰。 ...

【导读】基金经理解读 PCB 及消费电子投资机会 中国基金报记者 张燕北 孙晓辉 AI 算力军备竞赛延伸至 PCB 战场。 一块小小的电路板（ PCB ），在 A 股市场爆发出惊人的能量。 今年以来， A 股 PCB 板块近 20 只个股涨幅超过 1 倍。与市值一路高歌猛进相呼应的是， 头部 PCB 产业链公司的业绩也在持续增长。 这背后的主要推手便是 AI 。 AI 浪潮下，算力需求的爆炸式增长，成为 PCB 行业成长的最 大驱动力。 PCB 板块行情发力的主要逻辑是什么？行情是否具有持续性？经过持续上涨，是否已呈现局 部泡沫？中长期而言， PCB 板块的产业趋势和配置价值如何？ 为此，中国基金报记者采访了： 永赢基金权益投资部基金经理 任桀 Wind 统计显示，截至 8 月 22 日，中信 PCB 指数自 4 月低点以来最大涨幅超过 140% 。 平安鼎越混合基金经理 林清源 上银数字经济混合发起式基金经理 赵治烨 、 惠军 德邦基金基金经理 雷涛 在上述基金经理看来，这轮 PCB 行情确实有坚实的产业逻辑， AI 算力需求的爆发性增长是 核心驱动力，行情或具备戴维斯双击的潜力。 大家普遍认为，虽然近期板 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer electronics sector in A-shares is experiencing a strong performance, driven by the upcoming peak season and Apple's advancements in foldable phone technology [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 20, several companies in the consumer electronics sector, including Zhihui Power and Huizhou Technology, saw significant stock price increases, with some hitting the daily limit [1] - The Consumer Electronics ETF rose by 2.57%, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - Companies in Apple's supply chain, such as Luxshare Precision and Industrial Fulian, reported strong performance in the first half of the year, contributing to the overall positive trend in the sector [3] Group 2: Employment Trends - Foxconn is ramping up hiring in Zhengzhou, with high wages offered for various positions, reflecting the demand for labor as the peak season approaches [2] - The recruitment strategy includes competitive salaries and bonuses, with potential earnings for workers reaching up to 23,000 yuan over three months [2] Group 3: Apple’s Product Developments - Apple has officially entered mass production of the iPhone 17, signaling the start of the traditional peak season for consumer electronics [2] - The anticipated launch of Apple's foldable phone in the second half of 2026 is expected to significantly increase the penetration rate of foldable phones from 1.6% in 2025 to over 3% by 2027 [1][5] Group 4: Industry Innovations - The introduction of foldable phones is seen as a key innovation in the consumer electronics market, with Apple expected to lead this trend [5][7] - The development of new materials and technologies for foldable devices, such as liquid metal and titanium alloy 3D printing, is anticipated to enhance manufacturing efficiency and cost control [6][7] - Companies like Linyi Intelligent Manufacturing are already producing components that meet the requirements for foldable devices, indicating a shift towards advanced materials in the industry [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call focuses on the **3C device industry**, specifically highlighting **Apple Inc.** and its supply chain partners. Core Insights and Arguments - **Capital Expenditure Increase**: Apple plans to increase capital expenditure in the second half of 2025 to 2026 after a decline from 2022 to 2024. In the first half of 2025, capital expenditure rose by 57% to **$6.53 billion** and is expected to continue increasing, benefiting core component suppliers and equipment manufacturers [1][6]. - **New Product Launches**: Apple is set to launch a **foldable smartphone** in 2026 with an expected production capacity of **10 to 20 million units**, necessitating significant new equipment for assembly lines, leading to approximately **¥4 billion** in capital expenditure [1][2]. - **AI Glasses Introduction**: The company plans to release **AI glasses** by the end of 2026, leveraging its large iPhone user base for market penetration. This product may include camera installations, benefiting related device suppliers [1][2]. - **New Product Release Strategy**: Starting in 2026, Apple will adopt a biannual product release strategy, with the **iPhone 17e** expected in Q1 2026 to alleviate supply pressure in the fall and penetrate the lower-end market [1][2][3]. - **Investment in AI**: Apple has been actively acquiring companies like **Darwin AI** and **Data Data Car Lab** to enhance its AI capabilities, with plans to acquire **Perplexity** to improve front-end interaction. Despite the launch of **Apple Intelligence**, it currently only supports about **10%** of existing iPhone hardware, indicating a need for significant hardware upgrades among users [1][4][5]. - **Historical Capital Expenditure Trends**: Historically, Apple’s capital expenditure peaks during innovation cycles, such as a **25%** increase in 2021 during the 5G upgrade year. After a decline from 2022 to 2024, the recent increase signals a recovery [6]. - **U.S. Investment Commitment**: Apple has committed to investing **$600 billion** in the U.S. for tariff exemptions, focusing on core components while assembly remains likely in China, Southeast Asia, or India, reducing tariff risks and potentially aiding valuation recovery [7][8]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Future Hardware Sales Growth**: With **65% to 70%** of iPhones in use being over three years old, there is a substantial opportunity for hardware sales growth as users upgrade to newer models compatible with advanced AI features [4][5]. - **Beneficiary Companies**: Key suppliers expected to benefit from Apple's innovation cycle include: - **Bojun Precision**: Anticipated to see orders increase from **¥4 billion** to over **¥5 billion** due to foldable screen orders [9][10]. - **Opto**: Will gain from new orders with each product change due to its defect detection solutions [9][10]. - **Quick Smart**: Expected to benefit from increased demand for wearable devices like AI glasses [9][10]. - **Saiteng Co.**: Will leverage its optical detection business to penetrate the domestic supply chain [9][10]. - **Kaige Precision**: Focused on SMT processes, with a growing market share in dispensing and LED packaging equipment [9][10].

Summary of Conference Call Records Companies and Industries Involved - **Companies**:环旭电子 (Huanxu Electronics), 工业富联 (Industrial Fulian), 比亚迪电子 (BYD Electronics) - **Industries**: Electronics, AI, Automotive, Cooling Technology Key Points and Arguments Huanxu Electronics - Benefiting from integrated SoC eyewear solutions, with expected unit value reaching three-digit USD levels, driven by increased orders from Meta, presenting new investment opportunities [1] - Achieved breakthroughs in 1.6T optical modules, network cards, and power supply businesses, leveraging the packaging capabilities of its parent company, ASE Group, and the advantages of the Taiwanese supply chain [1][2] - The high-voltage power supply product line is projected to reach a market size of $4 billion by 2027, with a target to capture nearly half of the market share [2] Industrial Fulian - Recent strong stock performance attributed to outstanding Q2 financial results, with GB200 cabinets and products beginning to ship, validating its high barriers to entry and profitability [1][4] - The proliferation of liquid cooling technology and the delegation of procurement rights from NVIDIA have reduced overall costs for mainland manufacturers, enhancing profitability [1][4] - Increased shipment volumes and scale effects have made even minor profit improvements significantly impactful for the company [4] BYD Electronics - Continuously improving the structure of North American key customer components and assembly business through the acquisition of JEP and operational improvements, leading to reduced financial costs [1][5] - Major customers plan to launch foldable smartphones and smart home products in 2026, which will provide profit elasticity [5] - Expanding from smart cockpit to smart driving and thermal management in the automotive sector, enhancing competitiveness [3][5] - After obtaining certification from Hengwei in 2024, the company has become a qualified supplier in the power supply and liquid cooling sectors, with strong manufacturing capabilities expected to further expand market share [3][5] - The current valuation of Hong Kong stocks relative to A-shares still has discount space, but the development of AI product lines may change this situation [3][5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The integration of AI-related components in Huanxu Electronics' product offerings, including SIP modules for WiFi and integrated solutions with SoC, is expected to significantly enhance product miniaturization and value [2] - The impact of supply chain dynamics on BYD Electronics' competitive advantage and potential valuation uplift if supply chains are relaxed in the future [3][5]