1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2505 is recommended to be traded within the range of 2530 - 2590 intraday [9]. - Rapeseed meal prices are affected by factors such as soybean meal trends, technical adjustments, demand, inventory, and import policies. In the short - term, it may fluctuate upward due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, but the supply - demand fundamentals may keep the price in a range - bound oscillation [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2505: Intraday trading range is 2530 - 2590 [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season, with a supply - demand balance in the spot market [12]. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing, and the result is uncertain [12]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [12]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, which supports commodity prices [12]. 3.3 Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely to rise**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [13]. - **Likely to fall**: The increase in imported rapeseed arrivals after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand [13]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 3.05 tons, a 6.15% week - on - week decrease from last week's 3.25 tons and a 4.69% year - on - year decrease from last year's 3.2 tons [10]. - **Price**: The spot price is 2530, with a basis of 10, showing a premium over the futures. Rapeseed meal is in a weak oscillation, and the spot price fluctuates accordingly, with the basis remaining near par. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has declined from a high level, and the price difference of the 2505 contract has remained oscillating [10][20][22]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, inventory, production, and consumption [25][26]. - **Import situation**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in March was lower than expected, and the import cost has rebounded after reaching the bottom [27]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position has changed from long to short, and the funds have flowed in, showing a bearish signal [10]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal is affected by soybean meal trends and technical adjustments. Demand has not been released, and oil mill operations have decreased. Low inventory supports the price, but the short - term demand is in the off - season, and the arrival volume of imported rapeseed is not high. The impact of the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is limited [10]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2530, with a basis of 10, showing a neutral situation [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory decrease is positive for the price [10]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Main position**: The change from long to short and the inflow of funds are bearish [10]. - **Expectation**: In the short - term, it may fluctuate upward but will remain range - bound due to supply - demand fundamentals [10].