Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal futures are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Supply tightness will support prices, but weak demand will limit the upside potential. Attention should be paid to the clearance progress of imported rapeseed, the development of China - Canada trade relations, and the impact of the soybean meal market on rapeseed meal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 5, 2026, the opening price of the main contract (RM.CZC) of rapeseed meal futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 2354.0 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2382.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2350.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2361.0 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decline from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 271,120 lots, the open interest was 644,700 lots, and the trading volume was 6.41268 billion yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - On January 5, 2026, the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2440.0 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price was 2361.0 yuan/ton. The basis was 79 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price. The positive basis reflects the current tight supply in the spot market, supporting the spot price to maintain a premium over the futures price [3][5]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: Slow clearance of Australian rapeseed, zero operating rate of domestic oil mills, and low inventory of coastal oil mills in the rapeseed industry lead to tight market supply, which supports prices [6]. - **Demand**: Feed enterprises have high finished - product inventory, weak purchasing willingness, mainly replenishing stocks in small orders and purchasing as needed. The unit - protein price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows that rapeseed meal lacks cost - effectiveness, resulting in mediocre demand [6]. - **Related Markets**: The price of the soybean meal market is stable, and the domestic mainstream reference price of soybean meal is 3105 yuan/ton. The futures market maintains a low - level range - bound oscillation, which restricts the price of rapeseed meal [6]. - **Policy and Trade**: The progress of China - Australia rapeseed procurement policy and changes in China - Canada relations are the focus of the market. The result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is still unclear, increasing market uncertainty [6]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The rapeseed meal futures are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Supply tightness will support prices, but weak demand will limit the upside potential. Technically, the price is above the 20 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the clearance progress of imported rapeseed, the development of China - Canada trade relations, and the impact of the soybean meal market on rapeseed meal. If the supply shortage persists, the price may remain firm; if the import policy loosens, the supply pressure may be relieved [7].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2340 - 2400. Affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the current off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand, it will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is in a range - bound oscillation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the price. The short - term price is affected by soybean meal [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply shortage expected in the spot market and decreasing demand suppressing the price. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply. The global rapeseed production has increased this year, and the geopolitical conflict still has an impact on commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors: The off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From December 23 to December 31, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3106 to 3146, and the trading volume ranged from 7.46 to 290,000 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2520 and 2560, with zero trading volume. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was between 2520 and 2560. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at zero during this period [13][15][17]. 5. Position Data - The main position has changed from long to short, and the funds have flowed out [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2360. The market has returned to a volatile state waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. The short - term market is affected by soybean meal and will maintain the range - bound pattern [9]. - Rapeseed meal futures have declined with fluctuations, and the spot price has followed the fluctuations. The spot premium has remained at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal of the 2605 contract has narrowed slightly [18][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2360. The market is affected by soybean meal and is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term market will maintain a volatile pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the demand reduction suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but the Sino - Canadian trade issue has affected the short - term export and reduced the domestic supply expectation [11]. - The preliminary anti - dumping investigation of Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed has found it to be established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. The impact of the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict has offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: The preliminary anti - dumping determination of Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed and the imposition of import deposits; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - **Bearish factors**: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: From December 16th to 24th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 - 3138 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2500 - 2520 yuan/ton. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [13]. - **Inventory data**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 0.02 million tons, which is the same as last week and a 99.29% decrease compared to the same period last year. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level [9][25]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds have flowed in, showing a bearish trend [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, the overall rebound strength has decreased, and it is likely to be mainly in a weak oscillation. It is recommended for intraday trading with a long - term bearish mindset [1][3]. - For the two - meal (bean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, there is a low - level rebound, and one should wait for the end of the rebound to find new selling points [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Review - On December 23, the departure of a large number of short - sellers drove the overall rebound of the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices and changes of various contracts are as follows: - Soybean oil: The Y2605 contract closed at 7772 yuan/ton, with a daily - closing - price increase of 0% and a daily reduction of 1716 lots; the Y2609 contract closed at 7718 yuan/ton, with a 0.31% increase and a reduction of 648 lots [1]. - Palm oil: The P2605 contract closed at 8486 yuan/ton, with a 0.86% increase and an increase of 3972 lots; the P2609 contract closed at 8372 yuan/ton, with a 0.89% increase and an increase of 759 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The OI2605 contract closed at 8847 yuan/ton, with a 0.19% decrease and an increase of 4135 lots; the OI2609 contract closed at 8848 yuan/ton, with a 0.23% decrease and an increase of 114 lots [1]. Important Information - International oil prices rose on December 23 due to strong US economic growth and potential supply disruptions. The most actively traded February crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose 37 cents or 0.64%, settling at $58.38 per barrel [1]. - As of the end of November, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies was 1.513 billion pounds, up 15.95% from the end of October and 39.58% year - on - year. The EPA is expected to finalize the 2026 RVO next year, which pressured the soybean oil market [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [1]. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the FFB yield down 6.26% and the OER down 0.17% [1]. - Indonesia's B50 implementation has been postponed to the second half of 2026 [1]. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 851,057 tons, a 2.4% increase from November 1 - 20. Exports to China were 102,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous month [1]. - In October, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.8 million tons, a nearly 3% decline from the same period last year. Its crude palm oil production was 4.35 million tons, and the inventory at the end of October was 2.33 million tons, lower than the previous month's 2.59 million tons [1]. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.2936 million tons, a weekly decrease of 17,700 tons, a 0.77% month - on - month decrease, and an 8.30% year - on - year increase [1][3]. Market Logic - Externally, supply concerns and a strong US economy drove the rebound of crude oil, but poor export expectations and the delay of the US biofuel policy pressured US soybean oil. For Malaysian palm oil, despite the rise in international crude oil, overall inventory pressure in Southeast Asia and inactive purchases from major consuming countries led to a lack of rebound momentum [3]. - Domestically, for soybean oil, factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons, indicating short - term supply shortages, but high oil - mill crushing volumes and operating rates coexisted with cautious purchasing by traders. For palm oil, attention should be paid to whether the rebound of Malaysian palm oil can continue. Domestic palm oil inventory increased, and technically, the 05 contract faced pressure from the 20 - day moving average. For rapeseed oil, the inventory at East China ports continued to decline, and the spot price fluctuated with the market, with the basis showing a narrow - range adjustment [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Exit short - term long positions in vegetable oils, conduct intraday trading for new orders, and maintain a long - term bearish mindset. Provide support and resistance levels for various contracts [3]. - Arbitrage: None available [3]. Two - Meal (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Review - On December 23, the double - meal futures were boosted by the possible conversion of Cofco auctions into targeted sales. The closing prices and changes of various contracts are as follows: - Bean meal: The M2605 contract closed with a 0.15% increase and an increase of 17,263 lots; the M2609 contract closed with a 0.21% increase and an increase of 5,965 lots [3]. - Rapeseed meal: The RM2605 contract closed with a 0.51% increase and an increase of 15,829 lots; the RM2609 contract closed with a 0.42% increase and an increase of 1,550 lots [3]. Important Information - The USDA estimates that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce corn planting and increase soybean planting to 85 million acres. Previously, S&P Global predicted a 4% increase in US soybean planting in 2026, from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres [3]. - On Friday, private exporters reported selling 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 season [3]. - As of December 11, 97% of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting was completed, up from 94% a week ago. The stable rainfall was beneficial for the final planting and growth [3][4]. - StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate of 175 million tons [4]. - As of December 13, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 94.1%, compared with 90.3% last week, 96.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 90.6% [4]. - ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in December to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 3.33 million tons [4]. - US farmers welcomed the $12 billion agricultural aid plan but believed it was far from enough to cover the losses of $34 - 44 billion this year [4]. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory was 764,600 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons from last week. The domestic bean meal inventory was 109,200 tons, a 1.38% increase from last week; the contract volume was 467,000 tons, a 28.36% decrease from last week. The domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, unchanged from last week [3][4]. - On December 19, the planned auction of imported soybeans by Cofco was 550,143.732 tons, with an actual transaction of 179,701.674 tons, a transaction rate of 32.66%, and an average transaction price of 3751 yuan/ton [4]. Market Logic - Externally, the strengthening of international crude oil and the depreciation of the US dollar drove US soybeans to stop falling and stabilize. Domestically, most oil - mill fixed - price quotes remained stable, with individual increases of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Under high - inventory pressure, traders replenished stocks in a rolling manner, and feed mills maintained safety stocks and made rigid purchases. For rapeseed meal, the supply of high - protein rapeseed meal in North and South China was relatively tight, so the basis quotes rose slightly, and it is expected to have strong support below and fluctuate within a range in the short term [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Wait for the end of the low - level rebound of bean meal and rapeseed meal to find new selling points. Provide support and resistance levels for various contracts [4][5]. - Arbitrage: None available [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2320 - 2380. The market has returned to a volatile state, awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a volatile pattern, with the future development to be observed [9]. - The domestic rapeseed meal market is influenced by factors such as the off - season of aquaculture demand, the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the low inventory of rapeseed meal [9][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate between 2320 and 2380. The market is affected by soybean meal trends, technical adjustments, and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term trend is volatile [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply expected to be tight in the short term and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but exports are expected to decrease due to Sino - Canadian trade issues [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on global rapeseed production is relatively offset, but there is still a possibility of an increase in geopolitical conflicts, which may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: From November 28 to December 8, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated slightly, while the average transaction price of rapeseed meal decreased. The spot price of rapeseed meal was higher than the futures price, and the basis was positive. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian decreased from 2550 on November 28 to 2500 on December 8 [13][15]. - **Inventory data**: The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills remained at a low level, and the rapeseed crushing volume was zero [9][25][27]. - **Aquaculture data**: Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the supply is tightening. However, the demand for rapeseed meal has declined due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market is expected to remain volatile, and short - term observation is recommended. Later, attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and the breakthrough of China - Canada trade policies [2] - The rapeseed oil market is supported by tight supply as the import of rapeseed is restricted and oil mills are mostly shut down, and it will continue the de - stocking mode. But the demand is mainly for rigid needs due to the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has slightly declined due to the weakening of palm oil, but it may continue to be stronger than palm oil, and short - term participation is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9819 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal futures is 2439 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] - The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 279 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 52 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 13487 lots, up 4267 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal is - 10080 lots, up 2966 lots [2] - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3965 sheets, down 3 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] - The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 647.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed futures is 5442 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10110 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2440 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10196.25 yuan/ton, down 87.5 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7896.7 yuan/ton, up 17.9 yuan [2] - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio is 4.02, unchanged [2] - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 291 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 1 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2] - The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1660 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8290 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1820 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - The total rapeseed import volume for the current month is 0 tons, down 115300 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 758 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 0.1 tons, down 0.15 tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the current month is 140000 tons, down 20000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the current month is 220600 tons, up 62900 tons [2] - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 12500 tons, down 8300 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 100 tons, down 1900 tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 364500 tons, down 36000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 226600 tons, down 3000 tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 11500 tons, down 3300 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 230000 tons, up 7000 tons [2] - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 8600 tons, down 1500 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 200 tons, down 100 tons [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 29.57 million tons, down 1.717 million tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.276 million tons, down 674000 tons [2] - The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 519.9 billion yuan, up 69.04 billion yuan [2] 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.74%, down 1.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.74%, down 1.34% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.86%, down 1.7%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.84%, up 0.02% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, unchanged; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, unchanged [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.98%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.65%, up 0.03% [2] 3.8 Industry News - On November 25, ICE rapeseed futures rose for the second consecutive day. The January rapeseed futures contract rose 3.90 Canadian dollars to settle at 648.10 Canadian dollars per ton, and the March contract rose 4.10 Canadian dollars to settle at 661.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - US soybeans are in the export season, with abundant short - term supply. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. However, the domestic crushing consumption of US soybeans is good, and China has purchased nearly 2 million tons of US soybeans since October 30, supporting the price of US soybeans, which have been fluctuating widely at a high level recently [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - Domestically, China - Canada trade negotiations have not made a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the rapeseed inventory is zero with oil mills shut down, tightening the supply. However, the demand for rapeseed meal has declined due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution advantage of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain volatile. Short - term observation is recommended, and later attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and the breakthrough of China - Canada trade policies [2] 3.10 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - Internationally, the US government is considering delaying the plan to cut biofuel import incentives, and the output of Malaysian palm oil in November increased while exports declined, increasing the inventory pressure and dragging down the international oil market. Domestically, China - Canada trade negotiations have not reached an agreement on rapeseed tariffs, the import of rapeseed is restricted, and oil mills are mostly shut down. Rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode, supporting its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs due to the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has slightly declined due to the weakening of palm oil, but it may continue to be stronger than palm oil, and short - term participation is recommended [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market lacks short - term guidance and remains volatile [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is bullish, the price trend on the disk is neutral, the main positions show a bullish signal, and the short - term market is expected to return to an oscillatory pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply tightening and demand weakening, which suppresses the market. Canada's rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but trade issues may reduce short - term exports to China. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, with a 75.8% import deposit. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and import deposit on Canadian rapeseed, and low inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result. The main market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From October 20th to 28th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. Rapeseed meal futures prices bottomed out and rebounded, while spot prices were relatively stable, with a small - amplitude fluctuation in the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory was flat week - on - week. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained at a low level. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][22]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, and capital flowed in [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2440. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Short - term demand is in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market will be affected by news and maintain a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2380 and 2440. The market is neutral. The basis is 115, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish. The inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The main short positions are decreasing, and funds are flowing out, which is bearish [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good expectation. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final ruling result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed; the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From September 18th to 26th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The rapeseed meal futures bottomed out and rebounded, the spot was relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills decreased significantly. The price of aquatic fish rebounded slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [13][18][23]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not provide detailed position data analysis other than the information that the main short positions are decreasing and funds are flowing out [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil market, due to Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. For the double - meal market, short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and those not yet entered the market should wait and see for buying points after stabilization [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Vegetable Oil Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybean series, global vegetable oil futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased in price and positions, with the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closing at 8086 yuan/ton, down 3.35% day - on - day [1]. Important Information - International oil prices rose on September 23 due to the impasse in the agreement to restart Iraqi Kurdish oil exports. - The US EPA plans to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted by the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) program to large refineries, with two main options of 50% and 100% quota distribution. The public comment period lasts until the end of October, and a decision may be made in late November or December 25. - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a 33.60% increase from the previous month and a 15.17% decrease from the same period last year. - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - Canada launched a $370 million biofuel production incentive program to boost domestic rapeseed consumption. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 6.57% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.25%. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase from August 1 - 20. Exports to China were 30,400 tons, lower than the previous month. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.6773 million tons, a 1.68% week - on - week decrease and a 22.80% year - on - year increase [1][2]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's cancellation of soybean oil and meal export tariffs and the continuous reduction of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC soybean oil led to the decline of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient, oil mill operating rates are around 65%, and soybean oil supply is abundant. Rapeseed oil is still in the process of inventory reduction, and palm oil is in the process of inventory accumulation [2]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: No relevant arbitrage strategy is provided [2]. Double - Meal Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, double - meal futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all decreased in price and increased in positions, with the main soybean meal contract M2601 closing at 3250 yuan/ton, down 3.49% day - on - day [2]. Important Information - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - As of the week ending September 18, 2025, US soybean export inspections were 484,116 tons, at the lower end of market expectations, a 41% decrease from the previous week and a 3% decrease from the same period last year. - As of September 21, the US soybean harvest was 9% complete, with a good - to - excellent rate of 61%. - Brazil's soybean exports in September 2025 are estimated to be 7.43 million tons, a 44% increase from the same period last year. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory was 770,800 tons, an increase from the previous week, and the imported rapeseed inventory was 66,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 124,600 tons, an increase from the previous week [2][3]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's zero - tariff policy on soybean series affected the global soybean market, but the continuous decline of US soybeans is limited. Domestically, oil mill spot prices have decreased, and near - month basis has increased. The terminal's willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has improved. Rapeseed meal spot transactions are limited, and institutional long - short games have intensified [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and wait for buying points after stabilization. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - short spread trade for soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts. Temporarily exit on September 23 and wait for subsequent stabilization [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2700 - 2760. Supported by good demand and technical buying, with low rapeseed meal oil - mill operation and low inventory, the spot demand has entered a short - term peak season. Although the import of rapeseed has increased, the oil - mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The short - term impact of the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes in China is positive but limited. The price is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff situation [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509: 2700 - 2760 range oscillation. Fundamental aspects are neutral; the basis is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, which is bullish; the price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upwards, which is bullish; the main short positions have increased with capital inflow, which is bearish. In the short term, the price is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good outlook. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU and Canadian production. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other, the global geopolitical conflict may increase, providing support for commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12][13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: From July 25 to August 5, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was relatively small, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices also fluctuated, with the spot price showing a narrowing high - discount situation [14][16]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 1.9 million tons, up 25.83% week - on - week and down 44.12% year - on - year. The import of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. The oil - mill rapeseed inventory increased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory remained low. The oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume increased slightly [9][27][29]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, showing the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and there has been capital inflow [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The short - term outlook for rapeseed meal is range - bound fluctuations. The price is affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes in China. It is expected to return to the range of 2700 - 2760 [9].