交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-09-29 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2380至2440区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消息面影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差115，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil market, due to Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. For the double - meal market, short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and those not yet entered the market should wait and see for buying points after stabilization [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Vegetable Oil Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybean series, global vegetable oil futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased in price and positions, with the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closing at 8086 yuan/ton, down 3.35% day - on - day [1]. Important Information - International oil prices rose on September 23 due to the impasse in the agreement to restart Iraqi Kurdish oil exports. - The US EPA plans to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted by the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) program to large refineries, with two main options of 50% and 100% quota distribution. The public comment period lasts until the end of October, and a decision may be made in late November or December 25. - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a 33.60% increase from the previous month and a 15.17% decrease from the same period last year. - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - Canada launched a $370 million biofuel production incentive program to boost domestic rapeseed consumption. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 6.57% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.25%. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase from August 1 - 20. Exports to China were 30,400 tons, lower than the previous month. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.6773 million tons, a 1.68% week - on - week decrease and a 22.80% year - on - year increase [1][2]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's cancellation of soybean oil and meal export tariffs and the continuous reduction of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC soybean oil led to the decline of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient, oil mill operating rates are around 65%, and soybean oil supply is abundant. Rapeseed oil is still in the process of inventory reduction, and palm oil is in the process of inventory accumulation [2]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: No relevant arbitrage strategy is provided [2]. Double - Meal Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, double - meal futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all decreased in price and increased in positions, with the main soybean meal contract M2601 closing at 3250 yuan/ton, down 3.49% day - on - day [2]. Important Information - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - As of the week ending September 18, 2025, US soybean export inspections were 484,116 tons, at the lower end of market expectations, a 41% decrease from the previous week and a 3% decrease from the same period last year. - As of September 21, the US soybean harvest was 9% complete, with a good - to - excellent rate of 61%. - Brazil's soybean exports in September 2025 are estimated to be 7.43 million tons, a 44% increase from the same period last year. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory was 770,800 tons, an increase from the previous week, and the imported rapeseed inventory was 66,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 124,600 tons, an increase from the previous week [2][3]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's zero - tariff policy on soybean series affected the global soybean market, but the continuous decline of US soybeans is limited. Domestically, oil mill spot prices have decreased, and near - month basis has increased. The terminal's willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has improved. Rapeseed meal spot transactions are limited, and institutional long - short games have intensified [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and wait for buying points after stabilization. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - short spread trade for soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts. Temporarily exit on September 23 and wait for subsequent stabilization [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2700 - 2760. Supported by good demand and technical buying, with low rapeseed meal oil - mill operation and low inventory, the spot demand has entered a short - term peak season. Although the import of rapeseed has increased, the oil - mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The short - term impact of the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes in China is positive but limited. The price is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff situation [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509: 2700 - 2760 range oscillation. Fundamental aspects are neutral; the basis is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, which is bullish; the price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upwards, which is bullish; the main short positions have increased with capital inflow, which is bearish. In the short term, the price is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good outlook. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU and Canadian production. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other, the global geopolitical conflict may increase, providing support for commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12][13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: From July 25 to August 5, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was relatively small, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices also fluctuated, with the spot price showing a narrowing high - discount situation [14][16]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 1.9 million tons, up 25.83% week - on - week and down 44.12% year - on - year. The import of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. The oil - mill rapeseed inventory increased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory remained low. The oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume increased slightly [9][27][29]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, showing the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and there has been capital inflow [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The short - term outlook for rapeseed meal is range - bound fluctuations. The price is affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes in China. It is expected to return to the range of 2700 - 2760 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2680 - 2740. The market is influenced by factors such as the low - level operation of rapeseed meal oil mills, low inventory, the peak season of spot demand, increased imports of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The overall situation is neutral. In the short - term, due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, the price may rise and then fall, and return to the range oscillation with the influence of soybean meal [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are affected by factors like soybean meal trends, low - level operation of oil mills, low inventory, and tariff policies. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, the major short positions have decreased, and the price is expected to return to range oscillation [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the supply shortage expectation in the spot market has improved. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, and the geopolitical conflict may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [12]. - **Bearish**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June, the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From July 24 to August 4, the average trading price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated, with the 2509 contract showing weak oscillation [14]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The futures and spot prices of rapeseed meal fluctuated. The basis of rapeseed meal was at a discount, and the high - level discount has narrowed. The warehouse receipts increased by 1200 on July 31 and remained stable thereafter. The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 were provided, showing changes in inventory and consumption ratios [16][18][26][27]. 5. Position Data - The major short positions of rapeseed meal decreased, and the funds flowed out [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The short - term view is a range - bound oscillation. The strategy is based on the analysis of fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and major positions [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2660 - 2720. It is influenced by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill operation and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is in the short - term peak season, and although the arrival of imported rapeseed increases, there is no short - term pressure on oil - mill inventory. The short - term outlook is for range - bound movement. China's tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the lack of a tariff on rapeseed limits the upside potential [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a 2660 - 2720 range - bound state. The market is affected by soybean meal trends, technical consolidation, low oil - mill operation, and low inventory. Spot demand is in a short - term peak season, and the impact of China's tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is limited [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the supply outlook. The demand side maintains a good outlook. Canadian rapeseed annual production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced EU production and lower - than - expected Canadian production. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the impact of Ukrainian production cuts and Russian production increases offsetting each other, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: China's tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - **Bearish**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2600, with a basis of - 75, indicating a discount to the futures. The futures price is in a range - bound state, and the spot price fluctuates accordingly, with the high - level discount narrowing [9][20]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 19,000 tons, up 25.83% week - on - week from 15,100 tons last week and down 44.12% year - on - year from 34,000 tons last year [9]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory over the years [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal is expected to experience short - term fluctuations within the 2660 - 2720 range, affected by factors such as low imported rapeseed inventory, China's tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and soybean meal trends [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2700 - 2760. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the supply of domestic rapeseed has improved. The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The global rapeseed production has decreased slightly due to lower yields in the EU and Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - **Bearish factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2620, with a basis of - 102, indicating a discount to the futures. The rapeseed meal price has rebounded, and the spot price has followed suit, with a relatively high discount level [9][20]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.51 tons, a 228% increase from last week's 0.46 tons and a 58.06% decrease compared to the same period last year. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory has declined slightly, and rapeseed meal inventory remains low [9]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory over the years [25][26]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [39]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions have increased, but funds have flowed out [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Viewpoint**: Rapeseed meal is expected to trade within a range in the short term, affected by factors such as low rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes [9]. - **Strategy**: Not provided

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by factors such as the low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, but the lack of tariff on Canadian rapeseed imports limits the upside potential. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain range - bound due to the influence of imported rapeseed inventory and soybean meal prices [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No information provided. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, with expectations of improved supply in the spot market and good demand. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and an anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russia's production. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June, and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [25][26]. - **Price and Transaction Data**: It shows the average transaction price and volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from June 26 to July 7, as well as the price difference between them. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from June 27 to July 7 are also presented, along with the change in rapeseed meal warehouse receipts during the same period [14][16][17]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: The import volume of rapeseed in July is lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills has rebounded from a low level, while the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills has slightly decreased [27][29][31]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: The production and price data of Chinese aquatic products, including fish, shellfish, and shrimp - crabs, are mentioned. The price of aquatic fish has slightly fluctuated, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [33][35][39]. 5. Position Data No information provided. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal has oscillated and declined, affected by soybean meal prices and technical adjustments. Low rapeseed meal inventory in oil mills and the peak season of short - term demand support the market, but the lack of tariff on Canadian rapeseed imports limits the upside potential [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2500, with a basis of - 79, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67%, which is bullish [9]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending downward, which is bearish [9]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions have decreased, but capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal is expected to remain range - bound in the short - term, affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, as well as the influence of soybean meal prices [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - With the gradual establishment of downstream inventories of domestic soybean meal, the subsequent inventory accumulation speed of domestic soybean meal may accelerate under the expectation of high - opening and high - crushing of oil mills, and it is expected that the 009 contract will show a sideways movement. In the fourth quarter, there is an expectation of rising import costs for soybean meal, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices for the November and January contracts. Also, pay attention to the results of the USDA planting area report at the end of June [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) in Dalian was - 11 with a change of 15; in Tianjin, it was - 41 with a change of 25; in Rizhao, it was - 81 with a change of 25. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was - 121 with a change of 5; in Dongguan, it was - 111 with a change of 35; in Zhanjiang, it was - 111 with a change of - 15; in Fangcheng, it was - 111 with a change of 5. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was - 2 with a change of 27 [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 389 with a change of 2; the spread of the main contract was 280 with a change of 10 [7] 3.3 International Data - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1656, and the on - disk crushing profit was 232 yuan/ton with a change of 2 [7] 3.4 Inventory Data - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level in the same period of history; soybean meal inventory is still at a low level in the same period of history, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises continued to rise [7][8] 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in China in June, July, and August is expected to be over 10 million tons each month. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans has dropped to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth. Demand: From the perspective of inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November; the inventory of poultry remains at a high level; the cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the proportion of feed addition has increased. The提货 volume is at a high level; in some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein [7] 3.6开机 and Pressing Situation - The开机 rate and soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are shown in historical data analysis charts [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 will fluctuate in the range of 2520 - 2580. It's affected by factors such as the low - level operation of oil mills, low inventory, short - term peak season of spot demand, increased import of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short term, it shows a slightly stronger volatile trend, but the upward space is limited [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. The short - term trend is influenced by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and will return to range - bound fluctuations with the influence of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 fluctuates in the range of 2520 - 2580. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is bullish, the disk is neutral, the main positions are bullish, and in the short term, it will return to range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market [11]. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing, and the result is still uncertain [11]. - The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduced output in the EU and lower - than - expected output in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed output and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and low inventory pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed is on the market in June, and the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain. Rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [13]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Trading data**: From June 18th to 27th, the average trading price of soybean meal decreased from 2999 to 2886, and the trading volume fluctuated. The average trading price of rapeseed meal decreased from 2620 to 2500, and the trading volume was relatively small. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated [14]. - **Price summary**: From June 18th to 27th, the rapeseed meal futures price and spot price both declined. The spot price in Fujian decreased from 2620 to 2500, and the spot discount remained at a relatively high level [16]. - **Warehouse receipt data**: From June 16th to 27th, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 26177 to 21544, showing a continuous downward trend [17]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including data on harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions of rapeseed meal decreased, and funds flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The short - term trend of rapeseed meal is affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and will return to range - bound fluctuations with the influence of soybean meal [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580. It is currently affected by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, leading to a short - term rise followed by a fall. With the influence of soybean meal, its price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market [11]. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future outcome uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: The increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [24][25]. - **Price and Transaction Data**: From June 17 - 26, the average transaction price of soybean meal decreased from 2994 yuan/ton to 2889 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal decreased from 2600 yuan/ton to 2500 yuan/ton. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [13]. - **Inventory Data**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 1.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.93% [9]. - **Aquaculture Data**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [39]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have decreased, and funds have flowed out [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal is affected by soybean meal and technical oscillations. Low oil mill operation and low inventory support the market. Short - term demand is in the peak season, and although the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased, short - term inventory pressure is low, making the short - term market oscillate strongly [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2500 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory has decreased significantly compared to the previous week and the same period last year [9]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards [9]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out [9]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580 in the short term [9].