1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the supply is tightening. However, the demand for rapeseed meal has declined due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market is expected to remain volatile, and short - term observation is recommended. Later, attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and the breakthrough of China - Canada trade policies [2] - The rapeseed oil market is supported by tight supply as the import of rapeseed is restricted and oil mills are mostly shut down, and it will continue the de - stocking mode. But the demand is mainly for rigid needs due to the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has slightly declined due to the weakening of palm oil, but it may continue to be stronger than palm oil, and short - term participation is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9819 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal futures is 2439 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] - The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 279 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 52 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 13487 lots, up 4267 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal is - 10080 lots, up 2966 lots [2] - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3965 sheets, down 3 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] - The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 647.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed futures is 5442 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10110 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2440 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10196.25 yuan/ton, down 87.5 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7896.7 yuan/ton, up 17.9 yuan [2] - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio is 4.02, unchanged [2] - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 291 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 1 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2] - The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1660 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8290 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1820 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - The total rapeseed import volume for the current month is 0 tons, down 115300 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 758 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 0.1 tons, down 0.15 tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the current month is 140000 tons, down 20000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the current month is 220600 tons, up 62900 tons [2] - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 12500 tons, down 8300 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 100 tons, down 1900 tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 364500 tons, down 36000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 226600 tons, down 3000 tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 11500 tons, down 3300 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 230000 tons, up 7000 tons [2] - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 8600 tons, down 1500 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 200 tons, down 100 tons [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 29.57 million tons, down 1.717 million tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.276 million tons, down 674000 tons [2] - The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 519.9 billion yuan, up 69.04 billion yuan [2] 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.74%, down 1.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.74%, down 1.34% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.86%, down 1.7%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.84%, up 0.02% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, unchanged; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, unchanged [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.98%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.65%, up 0.03% [2] 3.8 Industry News - On November 25, ICE rapeseed futures rose for the second consecutive day. The January rapeseed futures contract rose 3.90 Canadian dollars to settle at 648.10 Canadian dollars per ton, and the March contract rose 4.10 Canadian dollars to settle at 661.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - US soybeans are in the export season, with abundant short - term supply. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. However, the domestic crushing consumption of US soybeans is good, and China has purchased nearly 2 million tons of US soybeans since October 30, supporting the price of US soybeans, which have been fluctuating widely at a high level recently [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - Domestically, China - Canada trade negotiations have not made a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the rapeseed inventory is zero with oil mills shut down, tightening the supply. However, the demand for rapeseed meal has declined due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution advantage of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain volatile. Short - term observation is recommended, and later attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and the breakthrough of China - Canada trade policies [2] 3.10 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - Internationally, the US government is considering delaying the plan to cut biofuel import incentives, and the output of Malaysian palm oil in November increased while exports declined, increasing the inventory pressure and dragging down the international oil market. Domestically, China - Canada trade negotiations have not reached an agreement on rapeseed tariffs, the import of rapeseed is restricted, and oil mills are mostly shut down. Rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode, supporting its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs due to the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has slightly declined due to the weakening of palm oil, but it may continue to be stronger than palm oil, and short - term participation is recommended [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market lacks short - term guidance and remains volatile [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is bullish, the price trend on the disk is neutral, the main positions show a bullish signal, and the short - term market is expected to return to an oscillatory pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply tightening and demand weakening, which suppresses the market. Canada's rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but trade issues may reduce short - term exports to China. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, with a 75.8% import deposit. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and import deposit on Canadian rapeseed, and low inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result. The main market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From October 20th to 28th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. Rapeseed meal futures prices bottomed out and rebounded, while spot prices were relatively stable, with a small - amplitude fluctuation in the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory was flat week - on - week. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained at a low level. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][22]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, and capital flowed in [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2440. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Short - term demand is in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market will be affected by news and maintain a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2380 and 2440. The market is neutral. The basis is 115, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish. The inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The main short positions are decreasing, and funds are flowing out, which is bearish [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good expectation. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final ruling result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed; the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From September 18th to 26th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The rapeseed meal futures bottomed out and rebounded, the spot was relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills decreased significantly. The price of aquatic fish rebounded slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [13][18][23]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not provide detailed position data analysis other than the information that the main short positions are decreasing and funds are flowing out [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil market, due to Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. For the double - meal market, short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and those not yet entered the market should wait and see for buying points after stabilization [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Vegetable Oil Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybean series, global vegetable oil futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased in price and positions, with the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closing at 8086 yuan/ton, down 3.35% day - on - day [1]. Important Information - International oil prices rose on September 23 due to the impasse in the agreement to restart Iraqi Kurdish oil exports. - The US EPA plans to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted by the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) program to large refineries, with two main options of 50% and 100% quota distribution. The public comment period lasts until the end of October, and a decision may be made in late November or December 25. - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a 33.60% increase from the previous month and a 15.17% decrease from the same period last year. - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - Canada launched a $370 million biofuel production incentive program to boost domestic rapeseed consumption. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 6.57% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.25%. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase from August 1 - 20. Exports to China were 30,400 tons, lower than the previous month. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.6773 million tons, a 1.68% week - on - week decrease and a 22.80% year - on - year increase [1][2]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's cancellation of soybean oil and meal export tariffs and the continuous reduction of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC soybean oil led to the decline of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient, oil mill operating rates are around 65%, and soybean oil supply is abundant. Rapeseed oil is still in the process of inventory reduction, and palm oil is in the process of inventory accumulation [2]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: No relevant arbitrage strategy is provided [2]. Double - Meal Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, double - meal futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all decreased in price and increased in positions, with the main soybean meal contract M2601 closing at 3250 yuan/ton, down 3.49% day - on - day [2]. Important Information - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - As of the week ending September 18, 2025, US soybean export inspections were 484,116 tons, at the lower end of market expectations, a 41% decrease from the previous week and a 3% decrease from the same period last year. - As of September 21, the US soybean harvest was 9% complete, with a good - to - excellent rate of 61%. - Brazil's soybean exports in September 2025 are estimated to be 7.43 million tons, a 44% increase from the same period last year. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory was 770,800 tons, an increase from the previous week, and the imported rapeseed inventory was 66,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 124,600 tons, an increase from the previous week [2][3]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's zero - tariff policy on soybean series affected the global soybean market, but the continuous decline of US soybeans is limited. Domestically, oil mill spot prices have decreased, and near - month basis has increased. The terminal's willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has improved. Rapeseed meal spot transactions are limited, and institutional long - short games have intensified [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and wait for buying points after stabilization. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - short spread trade for soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts. Temporarily exit on September 23 and wait for subsequent stabilization [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2700 - 2760. Supported by good demand and technical buying, with low rapeseed meal oil - mill operation and low inventory, the spot demand has entered a short - term peak season. Although the import of rapeseed has increased, the oil - mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The short - term impact of the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes in China is positive but limited. The price is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff situation [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509: 2700 - 2760 range oscillation. Fundamental aspects are neutral; the basis is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, which is bullish; the price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upwards, which is bullish; the main short positions have increased with capital inflow, which is bearish. In the short term, the price is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good outlook. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU and Canadian production. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other, the global geopolitical conflict may increase, providing support for commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12][13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: From July 25 to August 5, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was relatively small, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices also fluctuated, with the spot price showing a narrowing high - discount situation [14][16]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 1.9 million tons, up 25.83% week - on - week and down 44.12% year - on - year. The import of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. The oil - mill rapeseed inventory increased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory remained low. The oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume increased slightly [9][27][29]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, showing the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and there has been capital inflow [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The short - term outlook for rapeseed meal is range - bound fluctuations. The price is affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes in China. It is expected to return to the range of 2700 - 2760 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2680 - 2740. The market is influenced by factors such as the low - level operation of rapeseed meal oil mills, low inventory, the peak season of spot demand, increased imports of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The overall situation is neutral. In the short - term, due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, the price may rise and then fall, and return to the range oscillation with the influence of soybean meal [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are affected by factors like soybean meal trends, low - level operation of oil mills, low inventory, and tariff policies. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, the major short positions have decreased, and the price is expected to return to range oscillation [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the supply shortage expectation in the spot market has improved. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, and the geopolitical conflict may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [12]. - **Bearish**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June, the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From July 24 to August 4, the average trading price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated, with the 2509 contract showing weak oscillation [14]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The futures and spot prices of rapeseed meal fluctuated. The basis of rapeseed meal was at a discount, and the high - level discount has narrowed. The warehouse receipts increased by 1200 on July 31 and remained stable thereafter. The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 were provided, showing changes in inventory and consumption ratios [16][18][26][27]. 5. Position Data - The major short positions of rapeseed meal decreased, and the funds flowed out [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The short - term view is a range - bound oscillation. The strategy is based on the analysis of fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and major positions [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2660 - 2720. It is influenced by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill operation and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is in the short - term peak season, and although the arrival of imported rapeseed increases, there is no short - term pressure on oil - mill inventory. The short - term outlook is for range - bound movement. China's tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the lack of a tariff on rapeseed limits the upside potential [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a 2660 - 2720 range - bound state. The market is affected by soybean meal trends, technical consolidation, low oil - mill operation, and low inventory. Spot demand is in a short - term peak season, and the impact of China's tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is limited [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the supply outlook. The demand side maintains a good outlook. Canadian rapeseed annual production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced EU production and lower - than - expected Canadian production. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the impact of Ukrainian production cuts and Russian production increases offsetting each other, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: China's tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - **Bearish**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2600, with a basis of - 75, indicating a discount to the futures. The futures price is in a range - bound state, and the spot price fluctuates accordingly, with the high - level discount narrowing [9][20]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 19,000 tons, up 25.83% week - on - week from 15,100 tons last week and down 44.12% year - on - year from 34,000 tons last year [9]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory over the years [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal is expected to experience short - term fluctuations within the 2660 - 2720 range, affected by factors such as low imported rapeseed inventory, China's tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and soybean meal trends [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2700 - 2760. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the supply of domestic rapeseed has improved. The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The global rapeseed production has decreased slightly due to lower yields in the EU and Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - **Bearish factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2620, with a basis of - 102, indicating a discount to the futures. The rapeseed meal price has rebounded, and the spot price has followed suit, with a relatively high discount level [9][20]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.51 tons, a 228% increase from last week's 0.46 tons and a 58.06% decrease compared to the same period last year. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory has declined slightly, and rapeseed meal inventory remains low [9]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory over the years [25][26]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [39]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions have increased, but funds have flowed out [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Viewpoint**: Rapeseed meal is expected to trade within a range in the short term, affected by factors such as low rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes [9]. - **Strategy**: Not provided

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by factors such as the low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, but the lack of tariff on Canadian rapeseed imports limits the upside potential. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain range - bound due to the influence of imported rapeseed inventory and soybean meal prices [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No information provided. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, with expectations of improved supply in the spot market and good demand. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and an anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russia's production. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June, and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [25][26]. - **Price and Transaction Data**: It shows the average transaction price and volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from June 26 to July 7, as well as the price difference between them. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from June 27 to July 7 are also presented, along with the change in rapeseed meal warehouse receipts during the same period [14][16][17]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: The import volume of rapeseed in July is lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills has rebounded from a low level, while the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills has slightly decreased [27][29][31]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: The production and price data of Chinese aquatic products, including fish, shellfish, and shrimp - crabs, are mentioned. The price of aquatic fish has slightly fluctuated, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [33][35][39]. 5. Position Data No information provided. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal has oscillated and declined, affected by soybean meal prices and technical adjustments. Low rapeseed meal inventory in oil mills and the peak season of short - term demand support the market, but the lack of tariff on Canadian rapeseed imports limits the upside potential [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2500, with a basis of - 79, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67%, which is bullish [9]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending downward, which is bearish [9]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions have decreased, but capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal is expected to remain range - bound in the short - term, affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, as well as the influence of soybean meal prices [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - With the gradual establishment of downstream inventories of domestic soybean meal, the subsequent inventory accumulation speed of domestic soybean meal may accelerate under the expectation of high - opening and high - crushing of oil mills, and it is expected that the 009 contract will show a sideways movement. In the fourth quarter, there is an expectation of rising import costs for soybean meal, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices for the November and January contracts. Also, pay attention to the results of the USDA planting area report at the end of June [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) in Dalian was - 11 with a change of 15; in Tianjin, it was - 41 with a change of 25; in Rizhao, it was - 81 with a change of 25. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was - 121 with a change of 5; in Dongguan, it was - 111 with a change of 35; in Zhanjiang, it was - 111 with a change of - 15; in Fangcheng, it was - 111 with a change of 5. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was - 2 with a change of 27 [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 389 with a change of 2; the spread of the main contract was 280 with a change of 10 [7] 3.3 International Data - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1656, and the on - disk crushing profit was 232 yuan/ton with a change of 2 [7] 3.4 Inventory Data - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level in the same period of history; soybean meal inventory is still at a low level in the same period of history, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises continued to rise [7][8] 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in China in June, July, and August is expected to be over 10 million tons each month. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans has dropped to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth. Demand: From the perspective of inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November; the inventory of poultry remains at a high level; the cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the proportion of feed addition has increased. The提货 volume is at a high level; in some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein [7] 3.6开机 and Pressing Situation - The开机 rate and soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are shown in historical data analysis charts [7]