Group 1 - The U.S. has announced the cancellation of the tax exemption policy for small packages from China starting May 2, which is expected to lead to a significant reduction in imported goods by U.S. retailers, resulting in a severe shortage of consumer products [1][3] - Craig Fuller, CEO of "Freight Waves," expressed concerns that while large retailers may have prepared for this change, many small and medium-sized enterprises have not taken preventive measures, which could lead to supply chain disruptions affecting various products, including essential items like air conditioning units [1][3] - The impact of increased tariffs on supply chains is anticipated to manifest in the coming months, with consumers likely to experience product shortages as retailers deplete their inventories [1][3] Group 2 - The shortages may become noticeable as early as June, with significant effects expected during the back-to-school season in August, when parents will struggle to find essential items such as backpacks and school supplies [3]