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火炬电子:新备货周期有望牵引业绩增长,新材料需求端或引来复苏-20250418
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-18 10:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set at 36.3 yuan, maintaining the rating for the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.802 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 20.04% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 195 million yuan, down 38.9% year-on-year. The decline in revenue is attributed to macroeconomic factors and a slow recovery in downstream market demand, particularly due to a significant reduction in demand from trade business clients. However, there is an expectation of a demand turning point in the future [1]. - The company’s self-produced components business generated sales revenue of 992 million yuan, accounting for 35.40% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 11.77%. The company is expected to benefit from a new round of procurement cycles driven by military informationization and the release of previously delayed orders [2]. - The new materials segment achieved sales revenue of 141 million yuan, representing 5.02% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 19.41%. The core products have made progress in downstream applications, and the demand for new materials is anticipated to recover as the aerospace equipment construction demand remains clear [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s financial projections indicate a recovery in net profit, with estimates of 502 million yuan, 722 million yuan, and 950 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 33.40, 23.22, and 17.64 [4][3]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly in the coming years, with expected growth rates of 33.98%, 33.24%, and 31.69% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 8.238 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 25.82% [13].