期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 弱现实格局未变，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局有所变化，螺纹钢产量持续下降，供应延续收缩但旺季减产动能不强，整体降 幅不大，而库存相对偏高，利好效应有限。与此同时，节后螺纹需求如期改善 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, medium - term, and show a weak - side fluctuation intraday. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, and the steel price will fluctuate [2]. - Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and industrial contradictions continue to accumulate. The steel price is still under pressure. With the positive factors of cost increase and production limitation disturbances, the steel price is expected to continue the fluctuating trend, and the demand performance should be monitored [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term trend is "fluctuation", and the intraday trend is "weak - side fluctuation". The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the game between expectations and reality and the steel price's fluctuating operation [2]. Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar are weakly stable. Although the production has decreased, it's hard to sustain during the peak season, and inventory is increasing, so the supply pressure relief is limited. Demand remains weak, high - frequency indicators are at a low level, and the downstream industry has not improved, with limited marginal improvement in demand. With the game of long and short factors, the steel price is expected to continue fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].