1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - level shows that real estate investment continues to decline, infrastructure investment slows down, and terminal demand is weak. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market expects policy intensification. - On the fundamental side, last week's industrial data was favorable. The output of the five major steel products decreased slightly, the apparent demand rebounded, and the inventory increased but the growth rate narrowed significantly. The inventory of rebar turned to decline. The apparent demand for rebar increased, but the terminal was weak, with limited rebound space. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased month - on - month but still showed resilience. - It is expected that the futures price will show a volatile trend. [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3172 | 36 | 1.15 | 8980373 | 3148179 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3374 | 4 | 0.12 | 2777138 | 1412324 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 807.5 | 11.5 | 1.44 | 1698860 | 533529 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1232.0 | 44.5 | 3.75 | 8119133 | 943381 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1738.5 | 50.0 | 2.96 | 160217 | 52987 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and rebounded. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 3010 (+20) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (-20) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 (+20) yuan/ton. - From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 643109 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new housing construction area was 39801 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 18.8%. The investment in water transportation increased by 15.9%, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 7.4%, and the investment in railway transportation increased by 4.5%. - In terms of the industry, last week, the rebar output was 2060000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons month - on - month, the apparent demand was 2100000 tons, an increase of 120000 tons, the factory inventory was 1650000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons, the social inventory was 4850000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons, and the total inventory was 6500000 tons, a decrease of 40000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3260000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons, the factory inventory was 810000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons, the social inventory was 2970000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons, the total inventory was 3780000 tons, an increase of 50000 tons, and the apparent demand was 3220000 tons, a decrease of 40000 tons. [4][5] 3.3 Industry News - From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 643109 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. Among them, the residential construction area was 448460 million square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The new housing construction area was 39801 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 29304 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The housing completion area was 27694 million square meters, a decrease of 17.0%. Among them, the residential completion area was 19876 million square meters, a decrease of 18.5%. - From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 7.7% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 3.0%, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 18.8%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) increased by 2.0% year - on - year. Among them, the investment in water transportation increased by 15.9%, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 7.4%, and the investment in railway transportation increased by 4.5%. [6][7] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the futures and monthly spread trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the basis trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the spot regional price difference trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the smelting profits of long - process steel mills, the short - process electric furnace profits in the East China region, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, the output, inventory, and apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils. [11][12][13]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局弱稳运行，螺纹周产量环比下降，但旺季减产料难持续，且库存在增加，供应 利好有限。相反，螺纹钢需求表现疲弱，高频指标依旧是近年来同期低位，且下游行业未改善，旺 季需求成色不足。总之，供需双弱局面下螺纹钢基本面并未好转，产业矛盾持续累积，钢价继续承 压，相对利好成本 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 预期现实博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢基本面弱稳运行，螺纹产量有所下降，但旺季减产难持续，且库存在增加，供应压力缓 解有限。与此同时，螺纹钢需求延续疲弱，高频指标低位运行，且下游行业并未改善，需求边际改 善力度不强。总之，供需双弱局面下螺纹钢基本面并未好转，产业矛盾持续累积，钢价继续承压， 相对利好成本抬升 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局偏弱，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 唐山限产扰动再现，提振钢市情绪，钢价止跌企稳，而螺纹钢基本面表现疲弱，螺纹钢产量环 比微降但依旧处于年内高位，且品种吨钢利润较好，生产积极性未退，供应压力尚存。与此同时， 螺纹钢需求弱势下行，高频指标环比下降，且下游行业未见好转，淡季特征明显，弱势需求易承压 钢价。总之 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are limited and steel prices move in an oscillatory manner [2] - Although the market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have oscillated higher, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. However, the low - inventory pattern limits the downside space, and steel prices will continue to oscillate. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory changes [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term is weak oscillation, the medium - term is oscillation, and the intraday is weak oscillation. The view is to focus on the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are limited and steel prices move in an oscillatory manner. The calculation of price fluctuations is based on different rules for products with or without night trading sessions [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The strength of coking coal and coke boosts the black series, and steel futures prices oscillate higher. But the fundamentals of rebar are poor. Although the weekly output has decreased month - on - month and supply has shrunk at a low level, the profit per ton of the variety is good, and the sustainability of production cuts is not strong [3] - The demand for rebar is seasonally weakening, high - frequency indicators have fallen again, and they have been at the low level in the same period in recent years. The off - season characteristics remain, continuing to put pressure on steel prices [3] - The market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have oscillated higher. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The positive factor is that the low - inventory pattern means that industrial contradictions are not significant, and the downside space is limited. Steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a stable supply and slight adjustments in prices, with calls for self-discipline among companies to avoid excessive competition and maintain price stability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Data - As of July 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a total of 85,034 tons of rebar warehouse receipts, an increase of 594 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting emphasizing the need for self-discipline in the industry, urging companies to adhere to the "three determinations and three non-requests" principle to control production and stabilize prices [1]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - On July 29, Shougang Changzhi adjusted its rebar prices, reducing the HRB400E rebar price by 30 yuan, with the ex-factory base price for Φ20mm set at 3,220 yuan/ton [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Guosen Futures noted that despite being in the off-season, steel mills are maintaining decent profits and high production levels, with a slight weekly increase in rebar output and stable overall steel supply [2]. - Ningzheng Futures reported that adverse weather conditions are impacting construction and transportation, leading to generally weak downstream demand, while high coal prices are providing some support for steel prices [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the support level of the MA60 line. The core logic is that market sentiment has weakened, and steel prices have declined in a volatile manner [2]. - Under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. During the off - season, steel prices continue to face pressure. It is expected that steel prices will continue the volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The view is to pay attention to the support of the MA60 line, and the core logic is the weakening market sentiment and the decline of steel prices in a volatile manner. There are also explanations for price change calculations and definitions of different trends [2]. Market Driving Logic - Tariff disturbances have reappeared, weakening market sentiment, and steel prices have declined from high levels. The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. Steel mills' production is active, and rebar output continues to rise, increasing supply pressure. Demand shows a stable performance overall, and although high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded, they are still at a low level in the same period, and off - season demand remains weak. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. It is expected that steel prices will continue the volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is ★★ [7] 2. Core Viewpoints - The contradiction in the steel fundamentals is not prominent currently. With the continuous three - week rebound in rebar production and increasing production - restriction disturbances, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [6][33] - It is recommended to take a bullish stance on dips and treat the market with a bias towards long positions in a volatile market [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the rebar 2510 contract rose 0.03% [5] - **Spot Price**: The analysis involves the market price of rebar, but no specific price data is presented [11] - **Basis and Spread**: No specific analysis content is provided Important Market Information - On July 4th, the research group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development conducted research in Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces, emphasizing promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market and taking multiple measures to stabilize the market [16] Supply - side Situation - In late June, according to CISA data, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, pig iron increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and steel increased by 6.4% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 4.7% month - on - month [6][31] - According to Mysteel data, this week, the weekly output of rebar increased by 3.24 tons week - on - week, the steel mill inventory decreased by 5.13 tons week - on - week, the social inventory increased by 1.34 tons week - on - week, the weekly output of the five major steel products increased by 4.17 tons week - on - week, and the total inventory decreased by 0.1 tons week - on - week [32] Demand - side Situation - As of June 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 52.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the current value of the steel circulation industry's purchasing manager index was 45.6, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% [23] Fundamental Analysis - In late June 2025, the daily output of national crude steel decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, pig iron increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and steel increased by 1.3% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 4.7% compared with the previous ten - day period, but increased compared with the beginning of the year, the same period last month, the same period last year, and the same period the year before last [31] - According to Mysteel data, this week, the weekly output of rebar increased, the steel mill inventory decreased, the social inventory increased, the weekly output of the five major steel products increased, and the total inventory decreased slightly [32] 后市展望 - Currently, the contradiction in the steel fundamentals is not prominent. With the continuous three - week rebound in rebar production and increasing production - restriction disturbances, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [6][33] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to take a bullish stance on dips and treat the market with a bias towards long positions in a volatile market [7][34]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the seasonal weakness of the fundamentals and the continuation of the volatile steel prices [2]. - The policy's positive expectations drive the steel prices to rise, but the fundamentals of rebar continue to be seasonally weak with limited upward momentum. The low - inventory pattern remains unchanged. With the game between long and short factors, the steel prices maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Situation - Over the weekend, the spot prices of steel products were weakly stable, and the trading volume was weak. The sentiment in the real - market was relatively cautious [3]. Supply - Due to the steel mills' product conversion, the output of rebar has been continuously increasing, and the supply pressure has increased [3]. Demand - The demand for rebar is stable. The high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded under the stimulation of the speculative demand, but they are still at the low level of the same period, and the improvement space in the off - season is questionable [3]. Inventory - The low - inventory pattern of rebar remains unchanged [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, the 2510 contract of rebar rose by 1.15%. The manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMIs in June all increased compared to the previous month. The central bank aims to consolidate the stability of the real estate market, and anti-dumping duties will be imposed on imported stainless steel products. From May to June, the molten iron output reached its peak and then declined. Although there was a rebound at the end of June, the overall supply contraction trend remained unchanged. In the second half of the year, production cuts will be the main variable in supply. Currently, due to high temperatures and heavy rainfall across the country, it has entered the traditional off - season for demand, and demand has weakened. With no prominent fundamental contradictions at present, steel prices in July are expected to fluctuate mainly. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [5][31][32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - This section includes analyses of futures prices, spot prices, and basis spreads, but specific data and conclusions are not elaborated in the text [7][9][12] Important Market Information - In June, the manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMIs were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The central bank's second - quarter meeting in 2025 focused on revitalizing existing commercial housing and land to stabilize the real estate market. On June 25, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations. From January to May, transportation fixed - asset investment was 1.2 trillion yuan. Since July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties of 20.2% - 103.1% will be imposed on imported stainless steel billets and hot - rolled stainless steel sheets/coils from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for 5 years [14] Supply - side Situation - This section mentions the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan, but specific data and conclusions are not elaborated in the text [15] Demand - side Situation - As of May 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the current value of the Steel Distribution Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 47.5, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% [21] Fundamental Analysis - In Linfen, Shanxi, a coal mine with a production capacity of 900,000 tons was shut down for 10 - 15 days due to safety hazards. Last week, the weekly output of rebar was 2.1784 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,600 tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.856 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,800 tons; the social inventory was 3.634 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,500 tons. The weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.8099 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124,800 tons; the total inventory was 13.4003 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons; the apparent demand was 8.7985 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,300 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, unchanged from the previous week and up 0.71% year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83%, up 0.04% from the previous week and up 1.70% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week and up 16.45% year - on - year; the daily average molten iron output was 2.4229 million tons, up 110,000 tons from the previous week and up 2.85 million tons year - on - year. Jiangsu Yonggang plans to overhaul a 1080³ blast furnace for about 2 months starting in early July, which is expected to affect about 200,000 tons of molten iron [30] 后市展望 - From May to June, the molten iron output reached its peak and then declined. Although there was a rebound at the end of June, the overall supply contraction trend remained unchanged. In the second half of the year, production cuts will be the main variable in supply. Currently, due to high temperatures and heavy rainfall across the country, it has entered the traditional off - season for demand, and demand has weakened. With no prominent fundamental contradictions at present, steel prices in July are expected to fluctuate mainly [31] Operation Strategy - The recommended operation strategy is to wait and see [32]