Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal are all "oscillating" [1][3][5][7] Core Views - The steel market has inventory pressure, and steel prices will oscillate. The iron ore market has high supply and inventory pressure, and ore prices will likely oscillate. The coking coal and coke markets are pessimistic, with prices running weakly. The thermal coal market has limited supply recovery and high prices, with short - term prices oscillating strongly [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures prices oscillated weakly, and spot prices followed suit. National building materials trading volume was 84,500 tons, a decrease of 8.15% from the previous day. Rebar production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand was better than expected. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and consumption increased month - on - month [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials have supply pressure, but inventory reduction is significant, and apparent consumption is good. However, the consumption off - season is approaching, and consumption sustainability needs to be observed. The supply - demand pattern of strip steel has improved, but supply pressure remains, and inventory reduction pressure is still large. Short - term steel prices will oscillate, and future winter storage games and raw material support need to be observed [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures oscillated. Spot prices were generally weak and stable, and trading was dull. The cumulative trading volume of main ports in the country was 918,000 tons, an increase of 27.32% from the previous day. This week, the average daily hot metal output decreased slightly, port inventory decreased slightly, and the number of stranded ships increased [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore supply remains high, and inventory pressure persists. With steel mills' losses and production cuts, hot metal output has decreased month - on - month. Port inventory reduction and a decline in arrivals support prices, so the callback space for ore prices is limited, and they will likely oscillate within a range. Future hot metal output and downstream inventory changes need to be observed [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the prices of black - sector commodities generally fell, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Imported Mongolian coal prices weakened due to the decline in futures prices, trading was cold, and trading volume further declined. This week, coking coal production continued to increase, downstream coking plants and ports reduced inventory significantly, coke production decreased slightly, and overall inventory increased slightly [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic mines are gradually resuming production, Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high, and seaborne coal imports have also increased. Short - term coking coal supply has recovered month - on - month, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with insufficient speculative demand. The market focus is on the value of warehouse receipts. For coke, production restrictions in some areas have ended, supply has improved, hot metal output has decreased slightly, speculative demand has weakened, and coke supply and demand are in a weak balance [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke trading are both oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices have been slightly adjusted, and supply has tightened in some mines due to environmental protection and other factors, leading to a slight increase in prices. At present, coal prices are relatively high, and downstream buyers only purchase on demand, with speculative demand slowing down. At ports, inventory has accumulated due to navigation bans, market coal trading is sluggish, and downstream buyers are mainly waiting and watching. For imported coal, supply from Indonesia is low, and foreign mine quotes remain high due to existing profits [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Current supply recovery in the production area is limited, and downstream purchasing is more cautious. However, the consumption peak season has arrived, port inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and non - power demand downstream is strong. Short - term prices will oscillate strongly, and future overall consumption and inventory replenishment need to be observed [7]

钢材周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 钢材减产增加 期价震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 ⚫ 宏观面：1-10月份，全国房地产开发投资73563亿元， 同比下降14.7%。房地产开发企业房屋施工面积652939 万平方米，同比下降9.4%。房屋新开工面积49061万平 方米，下降19.8%。房屋竣工面积34861万平方米，下降 16.9%。新建商品房销售面积71982万平方米，同比下降 6.8%。全国固定资产投资（不含农户）408914亿元，同 比下降1.7%。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量200万 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - The report is titled "Steel Weekly Report 20251020" and focuses on the steel industry [2] - The analysts are Zhou Guisheng and Duan Yiwen [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with cost support and attention to macro changes and demand [6] Group 4: Summary by Section 1.成材 (Finished Products) Supply - The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide is 2.0116 million tons (-22,400 tons), and that of hot - rolled coils is 3.2184 million tons (-14,500 tons) [5] Demand - The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1975 million tons (+665,700 tons), and for hot - rolled coils was 3.1555 million tons (+205,400 tons) [5] Inventory - Rebar total inventory is 6.4105 million tons (-185,900 tons), social inventory is 4.5641 million tons (-108,900 tons), and steel mill inventory is 1.8464 million tons (-77,000 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory is 4.1919 million tons (+62,900 tons), social inventory is 3.4134 million tons (+120,400 tons), and steel mill inventory is 778,500 tons (-57,500 tons) [7] Basis - The futures fluctuate, and the basis fluctuates [7] Summary - The steel mill profitability rate has shrunk, iron - water production has decreased but remains high. Some steel mills are under maintenance, blast - furnace operating rate is flat, short - process production has increased, and the total rebar output has decreased slightly. After the holiday, demand has recovered but is still at a low level year - on - year. Inventory has decreased but remains high, and there is still inventory pressure. The demand for hot - rolled coils is weakly balanced, with a slight decrease in production, high inventory, and limited improvement in demand. Terminal demand is weak, and steel prices are under pressure. Pay attention to macro changes and demand, and the cost side still has support. Short - term fluctuations are expected [6] 2. Raw Materials - The cost side still has support. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,450 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), and the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1,575 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton) [13][14] 3. Production and Operation Indicators - As of October 17, 2025, the blast - furnace operating rate remained flat, the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 1.79% month - on - month, and iron - water production was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons month - on - month [19] - As of October 17, the steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87% month - on - month [24] - As of October 17, the blast - furnace operating rate in Tangshan was 91.68%, an increase of 1.68% month - on - month [29] 4. Demand and Sales - Rebar consumption increased by 665,700 tons month - on - month, and hot - rolled coil demand increased by 205,400 tons month - on - month [39] - As of October 17, the weekly average building materials trading volume was 97,700 tons, and the trading volume remained at a low level [43] - As of October 17, the weekly average hot - rolled coil trading volume was 30,160 tons, and the downstream cold - rolled production was 874,100 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons month - on - month [48] 5. Inventory - As of October 17, Tangshan billet inventory was 444,100 tons, a decrease of 25,400 tons month - on - month. The total inventory of major steel products was 11.2552 million tons, a decrease of 29,100 tons month - on - month [52] 6. Exports - According to customs data, steel exports in August were 9.41 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons month - on - month. From January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10% [66] 7. Downstream Industries Automotive - In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, an increase of 466,000 vehicles month - on - month; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons month - on - month. New - energy vehicle production was 1.617 million vehicles, an increase of 226,000 vehicles month - on - month; new - energy vehicle sales increased by 209,000 tons month - on - month [70] Real Estate - From January to September, national real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with a 1% decrease in the decline rate. Housing new - start area decreased by 18.9%, housing completion area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year (with a narrowing decline), new - built commercial housing sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year (with a 0.8% decline), new - built commercial housing sales revenue decreased by 7.9% year - on - year (with a 0.6% decline), and the funds available to development enterprises decreased by 8.4% year - on - year [73]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a divergence in the futures market for steel and iron ore, with steel prices expected to remain weak while iron ore is anticipated to fluctuate [1] Group 2 - On the steel market, futures prices showed weakness with a reported transaction volume of 106,000 tons and specific price changes: Tangshan steel billet at 2,940 (-10) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar at 3,220 (-10) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot-rolled coil at 3,320 (-20) yuan/ton [1] - In September, the new residential property transaction area in 10 major cities reached 6.7637 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 24.6% and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. The second-hand housing transaction area was 9.3068 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9.2% and a year-on-year increase of 22.3% [1] - The sentiment among traders in the spot market remains stable, but transactions are at low levels, indicating weak terminal demand. While second-hand home sales have improved, new home sales show limited improvement [1] - Steel mills are maintaining production levels, leading to increased supply pressure as hot-rolled coil inventories rise to high levels, suggesting a bearish outlook for steel prices [1] Group 3 - In the iron ore market, futures prices are fluctuating with a reported port transaction volume of 950,000 tons. Prices for PB powder are at 796 (+6) yuan/ton, and for super special powder at 720 (+4) yuan/ton, with a price difference of 76 yuan/ton between PB and super special powder [1] - From October 6 to 12, the total iron ore volume arriving at 47 Chinese ports was 31.441 million tons, an increase of 3.683 million tons compared to the previous period. Global shipments totaled 32.075 million tons, a decrease of 0.715 million tons [1] - The demand side shows that steel mills are profitable, with high furnace operation rates and an average daily pig iron output exceeding 2.41 million tons. The supply side remains stable, with a slight decrease in overseas shipments this week, while arrivals are at near three-year highs [1] - Post-holiday, steel mill inventory is expected to decrease, while port inventories are anticipated to increase, leading to a forecast of fluctuating iron ore prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - level shows that real estate investment continues to decline, infrastructure investment slows down, and terminal demand is weak. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market expects policy intensification. - On the fundamental side, last week's industrial data was favorable. The output of the five major steel products decreased slightly, the apparent demand rebounded, and the inventory increased but the growth rate narrowed significantly. The inventory of rebar turned to decline. The apparent demand for rebar increased, but the terminal was weak, with limited rebound space. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased month - on - month but still showed resilience. - It is expected that the futures price will show a volatile trend. [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3172 | 36 | 1.15 | 8980373 | 3148179 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3374 | 4 | 0.12 | 2777138 | 1412324 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 807.5 | 11.5 | 1.44 | 1698860 | 533529 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1232.0 | 44.5 | 3.75 | 8119133 | 943381 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1738.5 | 50.0 | 2.96 | 160217 | 52987 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and rebounded. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 3010 (+20) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (-20) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 (+20) yuan/ton. - From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 643109 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new housing construction area was 39801 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 18.8%. The investment in water transportation increased by 15.9%, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 7.4%, and the investment in railway transportation increased by 4.5%. - In terms of the industry, last week, the rebar output was 2060000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons month - on - month, the apparent demand was 2100000 tons, an increase of 120000 tons, the factory inventory was 1650000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons, the social inventory was 4850000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons, and the total inventory was 6500000 tons, a decrease of 40000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3260000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons, the factory inventory was 810000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons, the social inventory was 2970000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons, the total inventory was 3780000 tons, an increase of 50000 tons, and the apparent demand was 3220000 tons, a decrease of 40000 tons. [4][5] 3.3 Industry News - From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 643109 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. Among them, the residential construction area was 448460 million square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The new housing construction area was 39801 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 29304 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The housing completion area was 27694 million square meters, a decrease of 17.0%. Among them, the residential completion area was 19876 million square meters, a decrease of 18.5%. - From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 7.7% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 3.0%, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 18.8%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) increased by 2.0% year - on - year. Among them, the investment in water transportation increased by 15.9%, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 7.4%, and the investment in railway transportation increased by 4.5%. [6][7] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the futures and monthly spread trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the basis trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the spot regional price difference trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the smelting profits of long - process steel mills, the short - process electric furnace profits in the East China region, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, the output, inventory, and apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils. [11][12][13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core Views - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2601 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. The weekly output has decreased, but the production cut in the peak season is unlikely to last, and inventory is increasing, so supply benefits are limited. Demand is weak, with high - frequency indicators at a low level in recent years and no improvement in downstream industries, resulting in insufficient peak - season demand. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and industrial contradictions are accumulating. Steel prices are under pressure, but there are cost increases and production - limit disturbances. With the game between long and short factors, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is shock - weak. The reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakly - stable supply - demand pattern and the continuation of steel - price fluctuations [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Weekly output has decreased, inventory is increasing, and supply benefits are limited. Demand is weak, with high - frequency indicators at a low level in recent years and no improvement in downstream industries. The fundamentals have not improved, and industrial contradictions are accumulating. Steel prices are under pressure, but there are cost increases and production - limit disturbances. With the game between long and short factors, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, medium - term, and show a weak - side fluctuation intraday. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, and the steel price will fluctuate [2]. - Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and industrial contradictions continue to accumulate. The steel price is still under pressure. With the positive factors of cost increase and production limitation disturbances, the steel price is expected to continue the fluctuating trend, and the demand performance should be monitored [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term trend is "fluctuation", and the intraday trend is "weak - side fluctuation". The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the game between expectations and reality and the steel price's fluctuating operation [2]. Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar are weakly stable. Although the production has decreased, it's hard to sustain during the peak season, and inventory is increasing, so the supply pressure relief is limited. Demand remains weak, high - frequency indicators are at a low level, and the downstream industry has not improved, with limited marginal improvement in demand. With the game of long and short factors, the steel price is expected to continue fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2510 is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weak, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - Under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. However, due to cost increase and production restriction disturbances, there is resistance to downward movement. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term and intraday trends are oscillating weakly, the medium - term trend is oscillating. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern and steel prices under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - Tangshan's production restriction disturbances have boosted the steel market sentiment, and steel prices have stopped falling and stabilized. Rebar production has slightly decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level this year, with good profit per ton and high production enthusiasm, so supply pressure still exists [3]. - Rebar demand is weakly declining, high - frequency indicators are decreasing month - on - month, downstream industries have not improved, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Weak demand easily puts pressure on steel prices [3]. - In the situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and steel prices are under pressure. The relative positives are cost increase and production restriction disturbances, so there is resistance to downward movement. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are limited and steel prices move in an oscillatory manner [2] - Although the market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have oscillated higher, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. However, the low - inventory pattern limits the downside space, and steel prices will continue to oscillate. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory changes [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term is weak oscillation, the medium - term is oscillation, and the intraday is weak oscillation. The view is to focus on the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are limited and steel prices move in an oscillatory manner. The calculation of price fluctuations is based on different rules for products with or without night trading sessions [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The strength of coking coal and coke boosts the black series, and steel futures prices oscillate higher. But the fundamentals of rebar are poor. Although the weekly output has decreased month - on - month and supply has shrunk at a low level, the profit per ton of the variety is good, and the sustainability of production cuts is not strong [3] - The demand for rebar is seasonally weakening, high - frequency indicators have fallen again, and they have been at the low level in the same period in recent years. The off - season characteristics remain, continuing to put pressure on steel prices [3] - The market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have oscillated higher. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The positive factor is that the low - inventory pattern means that industrial contradictions are not significant, and the downside space is limited. Steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a stable supply and slight adjustments in prices, with calls for self-discipline among companies to avoid excessive competition and maintain price stability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Data - As of July 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a total of 85,034 tons of rebar warehouse receipts, an increase of 594 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting emphasizing the need for self-discipline in the industry, urging companies to adhere to the "three determinations and three non-requests" principle to control production and stabilize prices [1]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - On July 29, Shougang Changzhi adjusted its rebar prices, reducing the HRB400E rebar price by 30 yuan, with the ex-factory base price for Φ20mm set at 3,220 yuan/ton [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Guosen Futures noted that despite being in the off-season, steel mills are maintaining decent profits and high production levels, with a slight weekly increase in rebar output and stable overall steel supply [2]. - Ningzheng Futures reported that adverse weather conditions are impacting construction and transportation, leading to generally weak downstream demand, while high coal prices are providing some support for steel prices [3].