Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to fluctuate and operate in a volatile manner [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Steel Production Capacity Utilization - The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.61 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 42.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.29 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2815 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 69,500 tons [2] - The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.57%, a week - on - week increase of 6.13 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.67 percentage points; the average operating rate was 66.89%, a week - on - week increase of 9.55 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.04 percentage points [2] Steel Price - At the end of last week, the ex - factory tax - included price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 20 to 2,980 yuan/ton [2] Market Situation - The finished steel fluctuated last week, reaching a high and then falling back during the week, but strengthened again on the night of Friday driven by coking coal [2] - The fundamentals of the cost itself have changed little, remaining in a state of rising supply and demand after the festival and gradually entering the inventory reduction state. The rise of its raw materials provides some support from the cost side [2] - Steel follows the fluctuations of the raw material end in the short term, and it is recommended to focus on downstream demand in the longer term [2] Later Attention Factors - Macro - policies and downstream demand conditions need to be paid attention to [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a transition from the off - season to the peak season, with supply - demand contradictions not fully resolved. Steel prices are likely to remain range - bound in the short term, and the core of the market lies in the strength of demand recovery and inventory depletion rhythm. Attention should be paid to terminal construction start - up rhythm, inventory depletion speed, and raw material price trends [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: Iron - water output was 2.212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.07%. Rebar production was 1.953 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.00%. Hot - rolled coil production was 2.9526 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.34%. The steel mill profitability rate was 41.13% [11] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 1.7681 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.18% and a week - on - week increase of 80.00%. Hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 2.9536 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.86% and a week - on - week increase of 4.90%. Plate demand was more resilient than long - product demand [11] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory was 8.9417 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 403,800 tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.7159 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 553,700 tons (+13.30%). Both inventories were at relatively high levels [11] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts show the price trends, basis, and price differentials of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, as well as the price trends and differentials of cold - rolled coils, color - coated coils, and galvanized sheets [22][24][27] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Multiple charts show the profit trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils in the futures market, as well as the profit and inventory trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils from different sources and in different regions [78][80][91] 3.4. Cost Side - Multiple charts show the ratios of rebar to iron ore futures and coke futures, iron - water and crude - steel daily output, billet prices, scrap prices, and scrap consumption [111][114][117] 3.5. Supply Side - Multiple charts show the production, production capacity utilization, and cumulative year - on - year production changes of rebar and hot - rolled coils [135][137][140] 3.6. Demand and Import - Export - Multiple charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year consumption changes of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the production and export of home appliances, and the import and export volume of steel products [147][150][154]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price maintained a volatile trend today, rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon. The overall spot trading volume of steel was average, with most purchases at low futures and spot prices. This week, the output of the five major steel products increased slightly, with rebar production continuing to increase and hot-rolled coil production decreasing. Steel mills are still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance, and it is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline this week. Recently, downstream demand has seasonally rebounded, and the demand performance is acceptable, but the inventory is still accumulating rapidly. Among them, the inventory of rebar is accumulating at a faster rate, while the hot-rolled coil has started to destock this week. Recently, the capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved, but the resumption of work and capital situation are still weaker than in previous years. Recently, the export orders have been performing well, which has improved the supply and demand of hot-rolled coils, but the overall inventory level is still high, and there is pressure on supply and demand. However, recently, the geopolitical friction overseas has increased, and the energy prices and shipping freight rates have continued to rise. If the friction intensifies in the future, it may drive up the raw material costs of steel. After the market closed, there was news that the sales of Newman powder were blocked, which may affect the subsequent iron ore supply. Therefore, the steel price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. In the future, attention still needs to be paid to the molten iron production situation, downstream demand performance, and overseas geopolitical frictions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: The prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 increased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and 4 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as RB01 - RB05 decreased by 1 yuan/ton, and RB10 - RB01 increased by 1 yuan/ton. The disk profits of 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 12 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton, and 15 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Rebar Spot**: The prices of rebar in various regions increased by 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the cheapest delivery product for 05, 10, and 01 contracts is 70 yuan/ton, 41 yuan/ton, and 16 yuan/ton respectively. The regional price differences remained mostly unchanged, and the spot profits in different regions also changed to varying degrees, such as the adjusted rolling profit increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the East China rebar profit increased by 5 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot-rolled Coil Futures**: The prices of HC05, HC10, and HC01 increased by 6 yuan/ton, 6 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as HC01 - HC05 increased by 1 yuan/ton, and HC10 - HC01 decreased by 1 yuan/ton. The disk profits of 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 11 yuan/ton, 11 yuan/ton, and 12 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Hot-rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of hot-rolled coils in various regions increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis of the cheapest delivery product for 05, 10, and 01 contracts is -15 yuan/ton, -24 yuan/ton, and -39 yuan/ton respectively. The regional price differences remained mostly unchanged, and the spot profits in different regions also changed to varying degrees, such as the Tianjin hot-rolled coil profit increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the East China hot-rolled coil profit increased by 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3190 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3140 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3250 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3170 yuan (-) [5]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Follow the overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Important Information** - As of March 11 (the 23rd day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites across the country is 42.5%, a month-on-month increase of 19 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.2 percentage points in the lunar calendar; the labor attendance rate is 43.9%, a month-on-month increase of 14.2 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.8 percentage points in the lunar calendar; the capital availability rate is 42.8%, a month-on-month increase of 7.4 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points in the lunar calendar [9]. - On March 12, Minister of Justice He Rong stated at the third "Ministers' Passage" of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress that this year's government legislation work will focus on several aspects, one of which is to optimize the business environment, formulate regulations for the construction of a unified national market, and address issues such as local protection, improper access conditions, and "involutionary" competition [10]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the base price of rebar and hot-rolled coil contracts in different periods, the price difference between contracts, the disk profit, the cash profit, and other data trends over the years [15][17][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices declined today, with overall weak spot steel transactions, a drop in the futures market, and no spot - futures connection, leading to a general weakening of transactions. Last week's data showed a slight increase in the production of the five major steel products, with an increase in rebar production and a shift to increased production in hot - rolled coils. Steel mills are still in the mode of production suspension and maintenance. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has seasonally recovered, but inventories are still accumulating rapidly, especially for rebar, and the inventory is shifting from mill warehouses to social warehouses. The capital availability of downstream construction sites nationwide improved last week, with better capital availability in housing projects than in non - real estate projects. Recently, the pace of fiscal expenditure has accelerated, and the recovery of downstream demand remains to be seen. Steel mills' willingness to resume production is weak, still putting pressure on raw materials in the short term. However, due to large overseas geopolitical frictions and the recent signs of easing in US - Iran relations, energy prices have fallen, and the black metal sector has followed suit. Therefore, steel prices may maintain a volatile trend in the near term, but there is still a chance for steel prices to return to fundamentals in March, and pressure on steel prices remains. Attention should still be paid to hot metal production, downstream demand performance, and overseas geopolitical frictions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Rebar - **Futures**: RB05 rose 31 yuan/ton to 3119 yuan/ton, RB10 rose 32 yuan/ton to 3147 yuan/ton, and RB01 rose 33 yuan/ton to 3174 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts and the changes in the spreads are also presented. For example, the spread between RB01 - RB05 increased by 2 yuan to 55 yuan. The rebar's disk profit for different contracts decreased, with the 05 - contract rebar disk profit dropping by 10 yuan to - 151 yuan [2]. - **Spot**: The prices of rebar in different regions such as Shanghai, Nanjing, Shandong, and Tangshan all increased to varying degrees. The cheapest deliverable product's 05 - contract basis was 71 yuan. The regional price spreads and spot profits also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai rebar and Beijing rebar remained unchanged at 90 yuan, and the adjustment and rolling profit increased by 40 yuan to 50 yuan [2]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Futures**: HC05 rose 40 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, HC10 rose 38 yuan/ton to 3282 yuan/ton, and HC01 rose 28 yuan/ton to 3291 yuan/ton. There were also changes in the spreads between different contracts. The hot - rolled coils' disk profit for different contracts also changed, with the 01 - contract hot - rolled coils' disk profit dropping by 14 yuan to 18 yuan [2]. - **Spot**: The prices of hot - rolled coils in Tianjin, Lecong, and Shanghai all increased. The cheapest deliverable product's 05 - contract basis was - 10 yuan. The regional price spreads and spot profits also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai hot - rolled coils and Tianjin hot - rolled coils remained unchanged at 20 yuan, and the Tianjin hot - rolled coils' profit increased by 26 yuan to - 344 yuan [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Relevant Prices - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3190 yuan, Beijing Jingye rebar was 3120 yuan (down 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3250 yuan (down 10 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3170 yuan (down 10 yuan) [5]. 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile trend. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio when the price is high, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. 3.2.3 Important Information - From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%; cumulative steel imports were 0.827 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. - According to the data of the General Administration of Customs on March 10, 2026, China's household appliance exports in February 2026 were 35.8985 million units; the cumulative exports from January to February were 80.2852 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.4% [9]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the basis, price spreads, and disk profits of different contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the cash profits of different steel products in different regions and the cost of electric furnaces in East China, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided for the charts [13][14][15]...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View - The steel price of finished products is expected to fluctuate. The current situation is that supply and demand are both weak, but the rise of coking coal at the raw material end provides some support. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, and the verification of demand has a significant impact on prices. As the Two Sessions approach, the macro - level will have a greater impact on prices [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents - **Production Restrictions in Tangshan**: Most steel mills in Tangshan have planned to reduce blast furnace production by 30% and sintering production by 30% - 50%. Some steel mills have blast furnace maintenance plans, mostly for 5 - 7 days. The blast furnace hot metal in the Tangshan market is expected to decline in early March and recover in mid - March, with a relatively limited overall impact [3]. - **Cost and Profit of Electric Arc Furnace Steel Mills**: On March 3, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,380 yuan/ton, with an average profit loss of 72 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit of 39 yuan/ton [3]. - **Real Estate Transaction Area**: From February 23 to March 1, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.3202 million square meters, a 3.5% increase compared with the week before the Spring Festival. The cumulative transaction area since the beginning of this year has decreased by 16.9% year - on - year [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, with the intraday trend being slightly weaker. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line. The current situation is weak, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate [2]. - The steel market is mainly driven by domestic factors. After the Spring Festival, the fundamentals of rebar are still weak, with continuous inventory accumulation, so steel prices are still under pressure. However, the policy expectations are increasing as major meetings approach. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to domestic policies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively volatile, volatile, and slightly weaker. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that the current situation is weak and steel prices will continue to fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have changed. Rebar production has declined again to a low level, but the inventory level is high, and short - process steel mills will resume production, so the supply will increase from a low level, with limited positive effects. Meanwhile, rebar demand is weak, high - frequency demand remains at a low level compared to the same period, and there is a time lag in downstream resumption of work, so the weak demand pattern will continue, dragging down steel prices. The positive factor is the increasing policy expectations as major meetings approach. Currently, the steel market is mainly driven by domestic factors, and after the Spring Festival, the fundamentals of rebar are still weak with continuous inventory accumulation, so steel prices are still under pressure. With the increasing policy expectations, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate under the game between expectations and reality, and attention should be paid to domestic policies [3].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is not clearly stated in the report [1][3] Group 2: Core View - The core view of the report is that the steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the start - up of the demand side and the impact of macro - policies [1][3] Group 3: Key Points from the Report - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 80.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.09 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.93 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3328 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 53,400 tons [2] - The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 7.35%, basically unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 41.56 percentage points; the average operating rate was 10.14%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 53.2 percentage points [2] - Tangshan City launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 18:00 on March 1, 2026, and the lifting time will be notified separately [2] - At the end of last week, the ex - factory tax - included price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by RMB 10/ton, reaching RMB 2,920/ton [2] - Last week, the finished steel prices first declined and then rose, fluctuating at the bottom. The main contract of rebar approached the 3,000 level at the lowest, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil briefly fell below 3,200 [2] - Last week's fundamental changes were in line with expectations, and inventory accumulation was within the normal rhythm. Although the Spring Festival holiday has passed, downstream demand has not started yet. As the Two Sessions approach, the impact of macro - level factors on prices has increased [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - During the Spring Festival in 2026, the national construction steel market was generally closed, with the overall price remaining the same as before the festival and regional performance showing differentiation. This year, manufacturers are cautiously optimistic, but there are differences in expectations for the post - holiday market. After the festival, steel prices are expected to have a short "good start" supported by the inertia of steel mills' price increases, low inventory, and cost. However, the recovery rhythm of demand, the resumption progress of steel mills, and inventory digestion will be key variables. Subsequently, the market will likely enter a shock adjustment stage, and the sustainability of the market depends on the actual release intensity of demand, with a short - term shock - upward trend [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - During the 2026 Spring Festival, the national construction steel market was closed, with prices unchanged from pre - holiday levels and regional differences. Manufacturers have a cautious and optimistic attitude, but there are differences in post - holiday market expectations. After the holiday, steel prices may have a short "good start" due to factors such as steel mills' price increases, low inventory, and cost support. Key variables include demand recovery, steel mill resumption, and inventory digestion. The market will likely enter a shock adjustment stage, and its sustainability depends on actual demand release, with a short - term shock - upward trend [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Steel Type | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average hot metal production of steel mills | 10,000 tons | 230.49 | 228.58 | 1.91 | 0.84% | Weekly | | Rebar mill inventory | 10,000 tons | 163.59 | 153.65 | 9.94 | 6.47% | Weekly | | Rebar social inventory | 10,000 tons | 423.23 | 365.92 | 57.31 | 15.66% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil mill inventory | 10,000 tons | 79.85 | 78.75 | 1.1 | 1.40% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil social inventory | 10,000 tons | 290.92 | 280.45 | 10.47 | 3.73% | Weekly | [4] Futures Market Review - The report presents figures such as the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, on - disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) [5][6][9]. Spot Market Review - The report shows figures such as the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), the hot - rolled 4.75 spot price (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [14][15]. Fundamental Data - The report includes figures such as the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar supply - demand trend, hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, rebar mill inventory seasonal analysis, rebar social inventory seasonal analysis, hot - rolled coil mill inventory seasonal analysis, and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis [17][22][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of steel products are weak, and steel prices are fluctuating. The supply side shows that steel mills are reducing production, while the demand side is weak due to the approaching festival. The cost - side support is weakening, and the steel market is expected to operate weakly and fluctuate in the short term, with attention paid to the demand recovery after the festival [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Steel mills are reducing production. The weekly output of rebar at major steel mills nationwide is 1916800 tons (-81500 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 3091600 tons (-500 tons). From a process perspective, the long - process rebar output decreased by 48100 tons, and the short - process output decreased by 33400 tons [4][34]. 3.2 Demand - As the festival approaches, demand is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has declined. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 1476400 tons (-287600 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3055400 tons (-58700 tons). The weekly average trading volume of rebar is 34800 tons, and that of hot - rolled coils is 25000 tons, with the trading volume of hot - rolled coils decreasing [4][43][47]. 3.3 Inventory - Rebar inventory accumulation has increased, and hot - rolled coil inventory has also accumulated. The total rebar inventory is 5195700 tons (+440400 tons), the social inventory is 3695200 tons (+395200 tons), and the steel mill inventory is 1536500 tons (+45200 tons). The total hot - rolled coil inventory is 3592000 tons (+36200 tons), the social inventory is 2804500 tons (+21500 tons), and the steel mill inventory is 787500 tons (+15000 tons). The inventory of major steel products is 9401300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 491500 tons, and the billet inventory in Tangshan is 578000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 49500 tons [6][50]. 3.4 Price - As of February 6, the national aggregated average price of rebar is 3306 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the national aggregated average price of hot - rolled coils is 3284 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [10]. 3.5 Basis - As of February 6, the basis of the main rebar contract is 143 yuan/ton (+21 yuan/ton), and the basis of the main hot - rolled coil contract is - 1 yuan/ton (+17 yuan/ton) [5]. 3.6 Raw Materials - The cost - side support is weakening. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1470 yuan/ton, the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1483 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 765 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of - 29 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3.7 Other Market Indicators - The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen to 39.39%. The molten iron output is 2285800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6000 tons. The blast furnace operating rate is 79.53%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22%; the electric furnace operating rate is 57.33%, a week - on - week decrease of 13.33%; the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 48.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59%. The Tangshan blast furnace operating rate is 92.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.46% [5][29]. 3.8 Industry - related Data - In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197800 tons; from January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons. In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173300 vehicles; automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106900 tons. In November, new energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108000 vehicles; new energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108000 tons. From January to December, national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, the cumulative new housing construction area decreased by 20.4% year - on - year, the cumulative housing completion area decreased by 18.1% year - on - year, the new commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year - on - year, the new commercial housing sales volume decreased by 12.6% year - on - year, and the funds in place for development enterprises decreased by 13.4% year - on - year [60][64][68].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the inventory of five major steel products has started to increase. Rebar production has increased while demand has decreased, with inventory rising month - on - month, but the inventory accumulation pressure is limited due to the low absolute quantity. The decline in hot - rolled coil inventory has narrowed, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising, and the short - term inventory contradiction is limited. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from overseas (Australia and Brazil) has decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume has increased. The daily output of hot metal continues to rise, supporting the restocking demand. However, port inventory has further increased, and the price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the upside is limited [4]. - For coking coal and coke, supply has gradually recovered as some coal mines resumed production, and downstream transactions have improved. With the continuous increase in the daily output of hot metal, there is a certain support for coking coal and coke, and they are expected to operate in a strong - oscillating manner [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the macro - environment improved, but the industrial supply - demand structure weakened. Rebar inventory started to increase, and the decline in hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed. Steel prices lacked upward momentum and showed an oscillating pattern [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar weekly output was 191.04 tons (up 1.50% month - on - month and down 4.20% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 305.51 tons (up 0.33% month - on - month and up 0.53% year - on - year). Both blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar increased, and the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces also increased. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased [14][15][25]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 174.96 tons (down 12.71% month - on - month and down 5.50% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 308.34 tons (down 0.78% month - on - month and up 2.41% year - on - year). The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [33]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory started to increase, with both factory and social inventories rising. Hot - rolled coil inventory decline slowed down, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising [34][39]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, both the commercial housing and land markets showed a month - on - month decline. In the automotive market, in November 2025, automobile production and sales continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year [44][47]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2606.4 tons (down 5% month - on - month and down 0.7% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2920.4 tons (up 5.95% month - on - month and up 24.59% year - on - year) [56]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 229.5 tons (up 2.07 tons month - on - month and up 5.13 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 323.27 tons (down 0.60% month - on - month and down 0.92% year - on - year) [61]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 16275.26 tons (up 1.91% month - on - month and up 8.10% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8989.59 tons (up 0.48% month - on - month and down 10.77% year - on - year) [66]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 85.34% (up 7.17% month - on - month and down 2.52% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.90 tons (down 11.27% month - on - month and up 10.11% year - on - year) [72]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 95.12% (up 21.42% month - on - month and up 37.72% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 85.85% (up 24.26% week - on - week and up 32.89% year - on - year) [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 45 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.69% (up 1.35% month - on - month and down 0.63% year - on - year) [81]. - **Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory decreased month - on - month, and coking plant inventory increased. Coke port inventory increased slightly, and coking plant inventory decreased [82][88]. - **Spot Price**: After the fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, the price remained stable, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued [94]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil both contracted, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil slightly contracted. The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread oscillated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore slightly contracted [100][105].