2025 年 10 月 10 日 LPG：成本端偏弱，关注低位反弹风险 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2511 | 4,072 | -3.89% | 4,061 | -0.27% | | 期货价格 | PG2512 | 3,978 | -4.35% | 3,985 | 0.18% | | | PL2601 | 6,210 | -1.74% | 6,204 | -0.10% | | | PL2602 | 6,252 | -1.91% | 6,250 | -0.03% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2511 | 70,374 | -3978 | 66,864 | 1964 | | | PG2512 | 31,980 | 12669 | 54,225 | 7818 | | | PL2601 | 4,594 | 1598 | 12,716 | 616 | | | PL2602 | 28 ...

商 品 研 究 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2510 | 2,909 | -0.65 | 9,470 | -27,775 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,360 | 0.36 | -2,169 | -2,665 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 差 价 | 鸡蛋10-12价差 | | -280 | | -262 | | | 鸡蛋10-1价差 | | -451 | | -434 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.40 | | 3.40 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.96 | | 3.07 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.40 | | 3.15 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.53 | | 3.60 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 玉米现货 ...

2025 年 10 月 9 日 沥青：华南独累库，美委再生波 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,424 | -1.21% | 3,424 | 0.00% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,373 | -1.32% | 3,373 | 0.00% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 126,540 | (25,581) | 111,919 | (20,946) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 47,488 | (7,421) | 84,959 | (6,738) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 44430 | -6220 | | | | | | | 昨日价 ...

2025年09月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，高位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：原料走势趋弱，偏弱震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：原料走势趋弱，偏弱震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 30 日 铁矿石：预期反复，高位震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【宏观及行业新闻】 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 784. 0 | -6. 0 | -0.76% | | | | | ...

2025 年 9 月 29 日 LPG：短期支撑不弱，关注成本变化 丙烯：短期偏弱运行 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2511 | 4,290 | 0.54% | 4,317 | 0.63% | | 期货价格 | PG2512 | 4,211 | 0.21% | 4,235 | 0.57% | | | PL2601 | 6,365 | -0.11% | 6,396 | 0.49% | | | PL2602 | 6,399 | 0.00% | 6,412 | 0.20% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2511 | 65,891 | 4599 | 80,682 | -7631 | | | PG2512 | ...

| | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2510 | 2,957 | -0.17 | -12,594 | -6,401 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,354 | -0.36 | -7,297 | 2,124 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋10-12价差 | | -222 | | -242 | | | 鸡蛋10-1价差 | | -397 | | -413 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.50 | | 3.50 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 3.38 | | 3.38 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.45 | | 3.45 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.96 | | 3.96 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 玉米现货价格 | | 2,300 | | 2,317 | | | 豆粕现货价格 | | 2,900 | | 2,920 | | | ...

2025年09月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 期货研究 商 期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 24 日 | 对二甲苯：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：山东厂库承压，华东出货走稳 | 9 | | LLDPE：中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：后期低位追空需谨慎，中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实压制 | 13 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：短期震荡，中期承压 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：中期偏空 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期窄幅震荡 | 24 | | 丙烯：短期高位偏弱 | 24 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 27 | | 燃料油：夜盘大幅转强，短期易涨难跌 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：偏弱震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - PX is expected to remain weak in the medium term due to low profits and increased maintenance in downstream PTA, leading to a marginal easing of PX supply [1][11] - PTA's short - term processing fee for 01/05 contracts may rebound, but the unilateral trend remains weak. With limited room for polyester load increase and expected weakening demand in Q4, the medium - term trend may be weak after the end - September restocking [1][11] - MEG's valuation has recovered in the short term, but the medium - term unilateral trend may still be weak. A 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage is recommended. Supply pressure will gradually emerge, and demand is expected to weaken in Q4 [1][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Yesterday's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6684, 4666, 4268, 6344, and 491.8 respectively, with fluctuations of - 1.30%, - 0.98%, - 0.67%, - 0.91%, and - 1.50% [2] - The price differences between different contract months of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC all showed declines compared to the previous day [2] Spot Market - Yesterday's PX CFR China price was 826.67 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars from the previous day; PTA's East China price was 4626 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; MEG's spot price was 4362 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2] - PX - naphtha spread was 232.83 dollars/ton, down 1.5 dollars; PTA processing fee was 107.46 yuan/ton, down 16.52 yuan; short - fiber processing fee was 239.06 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan; bottle - chip processing fee was 82.22 yuan/ton, up 27.77 yuan; MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread remained unchanged at - 6.01 dollars [2] Fundamental Data PX - Today's PX price dropped to 827 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars from yesterday. A 70 - ton PX unit in the Northeast is under maintenance for about 45 days, and two 70 - ton PX units in the East are expected to postpone maintenance to next year [4] PTA - As of Thursday, PTA load was 76.8%, and the operating rate was around 82.7%. Today's PTA spot price rose to 4630 yuan/ton [4] MEG - Today's MEG spot average price was 4362 yuan/ton. A 30 - ton/year synthetic - gas - based MEG unit in Inner Mongolia plans to shut down for 20 - 30 days starting October 10. A 60 - ton/year synthetic - gas - based MEG unit in Xinjiang is restarting. As of September 18, the overall operating load of MEG in the Chinese mainland was 74.93% (up 0.02% from the previous period), and the operating load of synthetic - gas - based MEG was 79.38% (up 2.69% from the previous period) [5] Polyester - The operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn plants remained stable at around 75%. As of Thursday, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland was around 91.4%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales rate of 60% [6] Terminal Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang - The comprehensive operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained at 78%, 66%, and 72% respectively [7] - Downstream raw material inventory decreased. Some factories made rigid - demand purchases, some stocked up until late September or early October, and a few until late October [8] - New orders and shipments in the weaving sector were weak, and high inventory pressured fabric prices. Conventional fabric varieties still had nominal cash - flow losses [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Short - fiber and bottle - chip will follow cost fluctuations in the short term and face pressure in the medium term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Short - fiber - Price changes: Short - fiber 2510 rose from 6366 to 6408, short - fiber 2511 from 6360 to 6402, short - fiber 2512 from 6326 to 6378 [1] - Spread changes: PF10 - 11 remained at 6, PF11 - 12 decreased from 34 to 24, PF basis decreased from 110 to 73 [1] - Position and volume: Short - fiber main position increased from 124769 to 220956, main volume decreased from 185819 to 181515 [1] - Spot price and sales rate: Short - fiber East China spot price rose from 6.470 to 6.475, sales rate decreased from 64% to 54% [1] Bottle - chip - Price changes: Bottle - chip 2510 rose from 5854 to 5880, bottle - chip 2511 from 5846 to 5868, bottle - chip 2512 from 5846 to 5874 [1] - Spread changes: PR10 - 11 increased from 8 to 12, PR11 - 12 decreased from 0 to - 6, PR main basis decreased from 4 to - 18 [1] - Position and volume: Bottle - chip main position decreased from 35813 to 33645, main volume increased from 34144 to 36618 [1] - Spot price: Bottle - chip East China spot price remained at 5850, South China spot price remained at 5890 [1] Spot News Short - fiber - Short - fiber futures fluctuated with raw materials, factory quotes were stable, and transactions were negotiated on a case - by - case basis. The mainstream negotiation range for semi - bright 1.4D was 6400 - 6700. The average sales rate was 54% [1] Bottle - chip - Upstream polyester raw material futures rose slightly, bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable, and the market trading atmosphere was average. Orders from September to November were mostly traded at 5830 - 5920 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] Trend Intensity - Short - fiber trend intensity was 0, bottle - chip trend intensity was 0 (referring only to the daily - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX, PTA, and MEG are expected to have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium term. For PX and PTA, 11 - 01 positive spreads should be held, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads should be used. For MEG, 1 - 5 reverse spreads are recommended. PXN compression positions should be stopped for profit below 220 US dollars. The overall price increase of PX is restricted by poor terminal demand. The PTA processing fee is in a downward channel, and the polyester demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, which is negative for PTA. The MEG supply pressure is gradually emerging, and the valuation is expected to decline in the long - term [1][5][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On September 16, the Platts - assessed Asian paraxylene price dropped by 1.50 US dollars/ton. The PX production profit margins are mixed, with non - integrated producers having higher margins and integrated producers seeing shrinking margins. The PX - naphtha spread reached a low on September 15. The Chinese PTA and polyester markets are weak, and an increase in PTA inventory is inevitable. The naphtha price was stable at the end of the session, and PX prices declined on September 16 [2][3] - **PTA**: The PTA spot price rose to 4,610 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 01 - 80, a monthly average price of 4,632.5 yuan/ton, and a monthly settlement price of 4,675.63 yuan/ton [3] - **MEG**: The MEG domestic market was consolidating at a low level with a weak basis. The planned arrival volume at major ports from September 15 - 21 is about 9.4 tons [4] - **Polyester**: On September 16, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of about 40% by 3:45 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 64% by 3:00 pm [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral view [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In the short - term, it will rebound following oil prices. After the terminal's last round of inventory replenishment at the end of September, it may remain weak in the medium - term. The domestic PX operating rate is 87.8% (+4.1%), and the PTA load is 76.8% (+4%). Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new PTA devices and the potential impact of device overhauls [5] - **PTA**: In the short - term, it will rebound following oil prices. After the terminal's inventory replenishment at the end of September, it may remain weak in the medium - term. The PTA processing fee is in a downward channel, and the polyester load is expected to reach a high of no more than 92% and then weaken in the fourth quarter [6] - **MEG**: The short - term valuation has recovered, but it may remain weak in the medium - term. The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and the polyester operating rate is 91.6% (+0.3%), with a high of no more than 92% and expected weakening demand in the fourth quarter [7][8]