2025 年 8 月 25 日 丙烯：供需紧平衡，价格偏强整理 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 3,878 | -0.56% | 3,889 | 0.28% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,387 | -0.14% | 4,428 | 0.93% | | | PL2601 | 6,470 | -0.03% | 6,510 | 0.62% | | | PL2602 | 6,522 | 0.00% | 6,543 | 0.32% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 12,533 | -6081 | 29,779 | -5452 | | | PG2510 | 66,214 | ...

2025年08月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宏观风偏尚未显著回调，支撑仍存 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场情绪冷淡，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场情绪冷淡，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 铁矿石趋势强度：1 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 21 日 铁矿石：宏观风偏尚未显著回调，支撑仍存 | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | 来源：Mysteel，东财 Choice，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 财联社 8 月 16 日电，据央视新闻，当地时间 8 月 15 日，美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口 ...

2025 年 8 月 20 日 商 品 研 究 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 玉米基本面数据 | 重要现货 | | | | 昨日价格 | 价格变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 东北收购均价 | 元/吨 | | n a | 0 | | | | 锦州平仓 | 元/吨 | | 2,310 | 0 | | | 价 格 | 华北收购均价 | 元/吨 | | n a | 0 | | | | 广东蛇口 | 元/吨 | | 2,400 | 0 | | | | 山东玉米淀粉价格 元/吨 | | | 2,840 | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌% | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌% | | | C2509 | 元/吨 | 2,242 | -1.10 | 2,236 | -0.27 | | | C2511 | 元/吨 | 2,170 | -0.60 | 2,165 | -0.23 | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成 ...

2025 年 8 月 19 日 硅铁：板块情绪偏弱，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 锰硅：现货报价坚挺，宽幅震荡 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | 期 货 | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2509 | 5710 | -44 | 35,596 | 53,054 | | | 硅铁2510 | 5688 | -44 | 50,479 | 63,542 | | | 锰硅2509 | 6026 | 0 | 112,392 | 142,698 | | | 锰硅2510 | 6030 | - 2 | 27,269 | 51,731 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5450 | - | 元/吨 | | ...

2025 年 8 月 18 日 硅铁：板块情绪偏弱，偏弱震荡 锰硅：板块情绪偏弱，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | 硅 铁2509 | 5754 | | 10 | 57,163 | 60,480 | | 期 货 硅 铁2510 | 5732 | | 8 | 108,161 | 60,258 | | 锰 硅2509 | 6026 | | -24 | 177,513 | 153,180 | | 锰 硅2510 | 6032 | | -22 | 37,158 | 53,010 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 硅 | 铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内 | 蒙 | 5450 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Support remains as the macro risk appetite has not significantly declined [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Coke: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Coking coal: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Logs: Repeated oscillation [2][18] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend analysis for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, based on their fundamentals and macro - industry news. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Relevant data is tracked from Mysteel, Dongcai Choice, and the research institute [4] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [4] - **Trend strength**: 1, indicating a relatively positive trend [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, RB2510's yesterday's closing price was 3,188 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.41%); HC2510's was 3,439 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.20%) [6] - **Macro - industry news**: In early August 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 4.7%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 4.1%. Their steel inventory increased by 2.0% compared to the previous ten - day period. On August 14, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [6][8] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and various spreads. For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5,754 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [10] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, China's crude steel output decreased by 4.0% year - on - year. As of August 16, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 1.65 million tons compared to the previous period [10][14] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,230 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.3%) [15] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [16] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot - futures spreads, and various spreads of different log products. For example, the closing price of the 2509 contract was 815, with a daily increase of 0.7% [19] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, M2 balance increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 balance increased by 5.6% year - on - year [21] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]

2025 年 8 月 18 日 商 品 研 究 LPG：短期估值合理，震荡运行 丙烯：供需收紧，价格存一定支撑 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 3,861 | 0.08% | 3,872 | 0.28% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,332 | 0.56% | 4,331 | -0.02% | | | PL2601 | 6,492 | 0.06% | 6,475 | -0.26% | | | PL2602 | 6,525 | 0.18% | 6,525 | 0.00% | | 持 仓&成 交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 75,971 | 10341 | 73,799 | -7159 | | | PG2510 | 47,247 | 7426 | 97,481 | -213 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The manganese - silicon sector has a weak sentiment and is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Core View - The report provides the latest data on silicon - iron and manganese - silicon fundamentals, including futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and price differences. It also presents relevant macro and industry news [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon - iron, the 2509 contract closed at 5744 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 92,937 and an open interest of 72,388; the 2510 contract closed at 5724 yuan, down 54 yuan, with a trading volume of 73,995 and an open interest of 58,183. For manganese - silicon, the 2509 contract closed at 6050 yuan, down 24 yuan, with a trading volume of 177,497 and an open interest of 172,038; the 2510 contract closed at 6054 yuan, down 32 yuan, with a trading volume of 45,940 and an open interest of 48,032 [1] - **Spot Data**: The spot price of silicon - iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia is 5450 yuan/ton; the spot price of silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia is 5800 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) is 40.3 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu is 620 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - 09 futures price difference of silicon - iron is - 294 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot - 09 futures price difference of manganese - silicon is - 250 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - On August 14, the price range of 72 silicon - iron in different regions: 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in Qinghai, 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton in Gansu, and 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price range of 75 silicon - iron: 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton in Shaanxi (+50), 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton in Qinghai, 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton in Gansu, and 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The FOB price of 72 silicon - iron is 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton (+10), and that of 75 is 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton (+10). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese is 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton [2] - Hegang has finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon - iron in August at 6030 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan/ton from July, with a quantity of 2835 tons, an increase of 135 tons from July. A steel mill in Zhejiang set the price of silicon - manganese at 6122 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory, based on the standard), with a purchase volume of 1000 tons. A steel mill in Jiangxi set the price of 6517 silicon - manganese at 6180 yuan/ton (based on the standard, acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory), up 80 yuan/ton from the beginning - of - month price [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon - iron is 0, and that of manganese - silicon is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of the peanut market is "near - strong, far - weak". The peanut trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The prices of important peanut varieties such as Liaoning 308, Henan Baisha, Xingcheng Xiaoriben, and Sudan refined rice remained unchanged at 8,200 yuan/ton, 8,160 yuan/ton, 8,060 yuan/ton, and 8,775 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices**: PK510 closed at 8,116 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.47%, and PK511 closed at 7,988 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.73% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: PK510 had a trading volume of 64,410 lots (an increase of 35,782 lots) and an open interest of 89,499 lots (a decrease of 6,193 lots); PK511 had a trading volume of 72,641 lots (an increase of 39,589 lots) and an open interest of 93,792 lots (an increase of 427 lots). The total trading volume of the peanut market was 167,497 lots (an increase of 94,598 lots), and the total open interest was 229,647 lots (a decrease of 3,660 lots) [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of peanut warehouse receipts in the market was 0, with no change [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Liaoning 308 was 84 yuan/ton, Henan Baisha was 44 yuan/ton, Xingcheng Xiaoriben was - 56 yuan/ton, Sudan refined rice was 659 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 128 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Focus - In Henan, new peanuts in some areas are gradually coming onto the market. The prices are stable with limited trading. In Jilin, it is mainly inventory trading, and the prices are generally stable. New peanuts such as Silihong are expected to be listed in mid - to - late September, and 308 is expected to be listed around mid - October. In Liaoning, the raw material acquisition at the grass - roots level has ended, and it is mainly inventory trading with stable prices. In Shandong, it is mainly cold - storage peanut trading, and most areas are in the final stage of trading with limited inventory [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The peanut trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market outlook, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, with investment advice such as "oscillating repeatedly," "broadly oscillating," and "bullishly oscillating" [5][10][14]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day; the previous day's position was 271,889 lots, a decrease of 36,188 lots; spot prices of imported and domestic ores all increased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating due to sector sentiment resonance [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,250 yuan/ton and 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.09% and 1.29% respectively; spot prices in various regions showed different degrees of increase or remained unchanged [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 5.6% month-on-month; in July, automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year; in late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month-on-month, pig iron decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, and steel increased by 0.5% month-on-month; according to the weekly data of Steel Union on August 7, the output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, hot-rolled coils decreased by 7.9 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 23.47 tons [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of ferrosilicon 2509 and 2510 were 5,830 yuan/ton and 5,820 yuan/ton respectively; the previous day's futures closing prices of silicomanganese 2509 and 2510 were 6,100 yuan/ton and 6,112 yuan/ton respectively; spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,450 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 8, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Qinghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Gansu increased by 50 yuan/ton; the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,850 - 5,950 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the total manganese ore inventory increased by 8.83 tons month-on-month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Bullishly oscillating [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2509 and J2509 were 1,106.5 yuan/ton and 1,681 yuan/ton, up 3.5% and 1.7% respectively; most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [19]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease; most spot prices remained unchanged [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [23].