2025 年 11 月 24 日 LPG：下游需求分化，关注成本变动 丙烯：上涨驱动转弱，成本支撑偏强 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 商 品 研 究 期货研究 图 1：FEI 丙烷升贴水 图 2：美湾丙烷升贴水 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 图 3：中东丙烷升贴水 图 4：运费 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | PG2512 | 4,332 | -1.48% | 4,272 | -1.39% | | | PG2601 | 4,272 | -1.16% | 4,194 | -1.83% | | | PL2601 | 5,846 | -0.65% | 5,819 | -0.46% | | | PL2602 | 5,803 | -1.14% | 5,783 | -0. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Logs: Oscillation and repetition [2] Core Viewpoints - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, along with their respective fundamental data and macro - industry news [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price was 791.5 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The 12601 contract had a position of 480,907 hands, an increase of 9,616 hands. Spot prices of various types of iron ore remained unchanged. The basis and spreads had minor changes [4] - **Macro - Industry News**: In October, the year - on - year actual growth of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the year - to - date growth from January to October was 6.1% [5] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,070 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,277 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. The basis and spreads also changed [8] - **Macro - Industry News**: According to the November 13th weekly data from Steel Union, there were decreases in production, total inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil. In October 2025, there were changes in national steel production, imports, and exports [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon 2601, the closing price was 5,462 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. For silicomanganese 2601, the closing price was 5,642 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. The basis and spreads also changed [12] - **Macro - Industry News**: On November 19th, there were price ranges for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions [12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,139.5 yuan/ton, down 1.7%. For coke J2601, the closing price was 1,639 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. The basis and spreads also changed [15] - **Macro - Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: There were data on the trading volume, positions, and closing prices of different contracts, as well as spot - futures spreads and price changes in the log spot market [18] - **Macro - Industry News**: Customs总署 decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10, 2025 [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space, and the valuation is high [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Both are expected to experience wide-range fluctuations [2][7][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Market sentiment has weakened, and the alloys are experiencing compensatory declines [2][14]. - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to experience wide-range fluctuations [2][17]. - Logs: The market will fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 792.0 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan or 0.44%. The open interest decreased by 10,108 lots to 471,291 lots. Spot prices generally declined, with the basis and some spreads showing changes [4]. - **News**: In October, the year-on-year actual growth of industrial added value above designated size was 4.9%, and the year-to-date growth from January to October was 6.1% [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Rebar RB2601 closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.46%. Hot-rolled coil HC2601 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.21%. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, spot prices, basis, and spreads [8]. - **News**: In the weekly data on November 13, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand all changed. In early November, key steel enterprises' steel inventories, production, and import/export data also showed various trends [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5,474 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan. Manganese silicon 2601 closed at 5,680 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, spot prices, basis, and spreads [14][15]. - **News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions, and electricity prices in some areas changed [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are -1, indicating a bearish outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal JM2601 closed at 1,159 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan or 4.2%. Coke J2601 closed at 1,649.5 yuan/ton, down 60.5 yuan or 3.5%. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, spot prices, basis, and spreads [17]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply during the heating season [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log futures contracts, as well as in spot prices and spreads [20]. - **News**: The Customs总署 decided to lift the suspension of log imports from the United States starting from November 10, 2025 [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The asphalt market is experiencing a slowdown in shipments and is in a weak and volatile state. The trend strength of asphalt is rated as neutral, with a value of 0 [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On November 17, 2025, the closing price of BU2512 was 3,049 yuan/ton, up 0.69% daily, and the night - session closing price was 3,057 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The closing price of BU2601 was 3,037 yuan/ton, up 0.26% daily, and the night - session closing price was 3,039 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The trading volume of BU2512 was 6,726 lots, an increase of 304 lots, and the open interest was 18,902 lots, a decrease of 636 lots. The trading volume of BU2601 was 267,916 lots, a decrease of 1,939 lots, and the open interest was 192,751 lots, a decrease of 1,021 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 30,110 lots, with no change [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 12) was - 39 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan compared to the previous day. The 12 - 01 inter - period spread was 12 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan compared to the previous day. The Shandong - South China spread was - 190 yuan/ton, with no change. The East China - South China spread was 130 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,010 yuan/ton, with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,129 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,268 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,330 yuan/ton, with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,342 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,401 yuan/ton [1]. - **Refinery Data**: As of November 13, the refinery operating rate was 34.58%, an increase of 1.08% compared to November 10. The refinery inventory rate was 29.48%, an increase of 1.03% compared to November 10 [1]. Market Information - **Social Warehouse Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 114.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.9% compared to November 10. Most social warehouses in major domestic regions decreased, with the Shandong region showing a significant reduction due to the recovery of terminal demand, some projects being in the final stage, slower inventory - entry by traders, and more consumption of inventory for shipments [8]. - **Factory Warehouse Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factory warehouses was 69.1 million tons, an increase of 0.4% compared to November 10. The factory warehouses in South China and Southwest China showed significant inventory accumulation because the main refineries in the regions maintained stable production, but the market trading atmosphere was average, and refinery shipments slowed down [11].

Group 1: Report Title and Industry Outlook - The report is titled "LPG: Strong Buying Interest from Downstream, Relatively Resilient in the Short Term; Propylene: Improving Demand Expectations, Bullish in the Short Term" [1] - The outlook for LPG is that downstream buying interest is strong, making it relatively resilient in the short term, while propylene is expected to have improving demand and a bullish short - term trend [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data LPG Futures Prices - PG2512 yesterday's closing price was 4,350 with a daily increase of 0.60%, and night - session closing price was 4,363 with a night - session increase of 0.30% [1] - PG2601 yesterday's closing price was 4,256 with a daily increase of 0.78%, and night - session closing price was 4,270 with a night - session increase of 0.33% [1] Propylene Futures Prices - PL2601 yesterday's closing price was 5,903 with a daily increase of 0.22%, and night - session closing price was 5,894 with a night - session decrease of 0.15% [1] - PL2602 yesterday's closing price was 5,923 with a daily increase of 0.02%, and night - session closing price was 5,909 with a night - session decrease of 0.24% [1] - PL2603 yesterday's closing price was 5,917 with a daily decrease of 0.02%, and night - session closing price was 5,904 with a night - session decrease of 0.22% [1] Position and Trading Volume - PG2512 yesterday's trading volume was 114,980, an increase of 27,033 from the previous day, and yesterday's position was 69,585, a decrease of 1,680 from the previous day [1] - PG2601 yesterday's trading volume was 38,421, an increase of 2,281 from the previous day, and yesterday's position was 50,331, an increase of 4,003 from the previous day [1] - PL2601 yesterday's trading volume was 1,182, a decrease of 67 from the previous day, and yesterday's position was 5,165, a decrease of 125 from the previous day [1] - PL2602 yesterday's trading volume was 13,379, a decrease of 19,077 from the previous day, and yesterday's position was 6,857, a decrease of 144 from the previous day [1] - PL2603 yesterday's trading volume was 22,586, a decrease of 21,413 from the previous day, and yesterday's position was 14,187, a decrease of 19 from the previous day [1] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG12 contract was 100 (previous day's spread was 176) [1] - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG12 contract was 80 (previous day's spread was 176) [1] - The spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was - 98 (previous day's spread was - 110) [1] - The spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 28 (previous day's spread was - 40) [1] - The spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 78 (previous day's spread was - 65) [1] Industry Chain Data - This week's PDH operating rate was 71.7%, down from last week's 75.5% [1] - MTBE operating rate was 70.3%, up from 68.6% [1] - Alkylation operating rate was 42.2%, up from 38.5% [1] Group 3: Trend Strength - LPG trend strength is 0, and propylene trend strength is 0. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5] Group 4: Market Information - On November 14, 2025, the December CP paper cargo price for propane was 482 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day, and for butane was 474 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The January CP paper cargo price for propane was 484 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day [6] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans from different companies with different start and end times and capacities [7] - There are also multiple domestic LPG factory device maintenance plans from different production enterprises in different regions with different normal and loss volumes, start and end times, and maintenance durations [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil lacks driving forces and will mainly move in a sideways pattern [5]. - With the stabilization of US soybeans, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil will continue to widen [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: closed at 8,752 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.09% increase, and 8,712 yuan/ton at night with a -0.46% decrease. Trading volume was 652,768 lots, an increase of 256,393 lots, and open interest was 409,209 lots, a decrease of 10,095 lots [3]. - Soybean oil主力: closed at 8,316 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.34% increase, and 8,328 yuan/ton at night with a 0.14% increase. Trading volume was 278,949 lots, an increase of 42,242 lots, and open interest was 464,244 lots, an increase of 8,824 lots [3]. - Rapeseed oil主力: closed at 9,975 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.37% increase, and 9,982 yuan/ton at night with a 0.07% increase. Trading volume was 260,760 lots, an increase of 64,851 lots, and open interest was 237,907 lots, an increase of 15,923 lots [3]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: closed at 4,126 ringgit/ton during the day session with a 0.02% increase, and 4,128 ringgit/ton at night with a 0.07% increase [3]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: closed at 50.53 cents/pound during the day session with a -0.79% decrease [3]. - **Spot Data**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: spot price was 8,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [3]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: spot price was 8,610 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: spot price was 10,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton [3]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price: 1,045 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Basis Data**: - Palm oil (Guangdong): basis was -182 yuan/ton [3]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong): basis was 294 yuan/ton [3]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): basis was 355 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spread Data**: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: 1,223 yuan/ton, compared with 1,096 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: -436 yuan/ton, compared with -456 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3]. - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: -102 yuan/ton, compared with -90 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's palm oil production from January to September this year exceeded 43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%, and exports were about 25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% [4]. - Indonesia is considering a plan to increase the oil palm plantation area by 600,000 hectares starting next year, including providing 400,000 hectares of "Plasma mode" oil palm plantations for small farmers [6]. - Indonesia will launch the B50 biodiesel road test in early December, and the government is considering whether to implement the B50 mandatory standard only in specific areas. It plans to implement the B50 blending standard in the second half of next year, up from 40% this year [6]. - Due to the implementation of the B50 biodiesel blend fuel, Indonesia's palm oil exports in 2026 may decline by 11% - 12% [6]. - India's palm oil imports in October were 602,381 tons, down from 833,017 tons in September. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, palm oil imports were 7.58 million tons, lower than 9.01 million tons in the same period last year. The proportion of palm oil in India's vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year fell below 50% for the first time [7]. - CONAB expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach 177.6016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1199 million tons or 3.6%; the sown area to reach 49.0634 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.7169 million hectares or 3.6%; and the yield per hectare to be 3.62 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0 kg or 0.1% [8]. - IBGE expects Brazil's soybean planting area in 2025 to be 47.676233 million hectares, roughly the same as last month's forecast and a 3.6% increase from last year; the production to be 165.913102 million tons, the same as last month's forecast and a 14.5% increase from last year. The soybean production forecast for 2026 is 167.683455 million tons, a 1.1% increase from the 2025 forecast [8]. - Brazil exported 942,502 tons of soybeans, 433,164 tons of soybean meal, and 1,602,174 tons of corn last week (November 2 - 8). This week (November 9 - 15), it plans to export 1,361,184 tons of soybeans, 594,397 tons of soybean meal, and 1,600,468 tons of corn [8]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 Note: The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the corn industry is "Short - term bullish" [1] Core View - The corn market shows a short - term upward trend, with the trend strength at 0, indicating a neutral - to - bullish state [1][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Jinzhou closing price is 2,140 yuan/ton with no change; the Guangdong Shekou price is 2,250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Shandong corn starch price is 2,770 yuan/ton with no change [1] - **Futures Prices**: C2601 closed at 2,154 yuan/ton yesterday, up 0.75%, and 2,156 yuan/ton in the night session, up 0.09%; C2603 closed at 2,183 yuan/ton yesterday, up 0.88%, and 2,186 yuan/ton in the night session, up 0.14% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For C2601, yesterday's trading volume was 566,057 lots, an increase of 174,262 lots, and open interest was 970,616 lots, an increase of 34,867 lots; for C2603, yesterday's trading volume was 143,300 lots, an increase of 76,545 lots, and open interest was 450,090 lots, an increase of 1,019 lots. The total trading volume of the corn market was 763,993 lots, an increase of 256,063 lots, and total open interest was 1,820,782 lots, an increase of 33,509 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts of the corn market were 66,351 lots with no change [1] - **Price Spreads**: The main 01 basis was - 14 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 03 inter - period spread was - 29 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - Northern corn bulk shipping port - collection prices are 2,100 - 2,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; containerized first - class grain port - collection prices are 2,140 - 2,210 yuan/ton. In Guangdong Shekou, bulk shipping prices are 2,230 - 2,250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, and container quotes are 2,270 - 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. Northeast deep - processing corn prices have mixed changes, with the mainstream purchase prices of wet grain in Heilongjiang and Jilin at 1,960 - 2,060 yuan/ton, and the mainstream feed corn prices at 2,080 - 2,160 yuan/ton. North China corn prices have limited fluctuations, with the mainstream purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises at 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton (including wet grain within 18% moisture), and the purchase prices of local grain by feed enterprises at 2,280 - 2,320 yuan/ton. The price of imported Australian sorghum for November - December shipments in Guangdong is 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of Argentine sorghum is 2,120 yuan/ton. The pre - sale price of imported barley for self - pick - up from January 2026 to March 2027 is 2,000 yuan/ton [2] Trend Strength - The trend strength of corn is 0, within the range of [- 2, 2], indicating a neutral - to - bullish state [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fuel oil is expected to show a volatile trend and remain weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strong in the short term, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market will continue to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - For fuel oil futures, FU2512 closed at 2,722 yuan/ton, down 0.87% daily, and the settlement price was 2,711 yuan/ton, down 1.85%. FU2601 closed at 2,743 yuan/ton, down 1.85% daily, and the settlement price was 2,727 yuan/ton, down 1.52%. - For low - sulfur fuel oil futures, LU2512 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton, up 0.21% daily, and the settlement price was 3,263 yuan/ton, down 1.45%. LU2601 closed at 3,297 yuan/ton, down 1.45% daily, and the settlement price was 3,277 yuan/ton, down 1.15% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - For fuel oil futures, the trading volume of FU2512 was 1,728 lots, an increase of 127 lots, and the open interest was 5,021 lots, a decrease of 337 lots. The trading volume of FU2601 was 456,878 lots, an increase of 59,135 lots, and the open interest was 183,463 lots, an increase of 2,413 lots. - For low - sulfur fuel oil futures, the trading volume of LU2512 was 3,516 lots, an increase of 898 lots, and the open interest was 11,508 lots, a decrease of 523 lots. The trading volume of LU2601 was 87,167 lots, a decrease of 2,856 lots, and the open interest was 74,847 lots, a decrease of 1,435 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts of fuel oil in the whole market were 29,740, a decrease of 16,720, and the warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil were 34,730, a decrease of 11,000 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - High - sulfur (3.5%S) fuel oil spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend, with daily declines ranging from 0.26% to 1.24%. - Low - sulfur (0.5%S) fuel oil spot prices in most regions also declined slightly, except for a 0.72% increase in South Korea [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread of FU12 - 01 was - 21 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was - 16 yuan/ton, with a difference of 5 yuan/ton. - The spread of LU12 - 01 was - 11 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was - 14 yuan/ton, with a difference of - 3 yuan/ton. - The spread of LU12 - FU12 was 564 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was 552 yuan/ton, with a difference of - 12 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and the trend intensity of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2601 is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are poor and steel prices are weakly seeking the bottom [2]. - Rebar fundamentals are weak. Steel prices are under pressure and are expected to continue the oscillating bottom - seeking trend, with cost support being a relative positive factor. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term is weakly oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is weakly oscillating. The view is to pay attention to the MA5 line pressure, with the core logic of poor fundamentals and steel prices seeking the bottom weakly. There are also explanations for time - cycle and amplitude calculation [2]. Market Driving Logic - Rebar fundamentals are weak. Production is increasing, inventory is high, supply pressure is growing. Although demand has a seasonal improvement, it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years and will weaken at the end of the peak season. In the situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure. Cost support is a positive factor, and the trend is expected to continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG demand improvement is limited, and the futures valuation is high - Propylene supply is expected to contract, and the oversupply situation has improved [1] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2512 closed at 4,293 with a daily increase of 0.16% and a night - session close of 4,286 with a decrease of 0.16%. PG2601 closed at 4,213 with a daily increase of 0.21% and a night - session close of 4,206 with a decrease of 0.17%. PL2601 closed at 6,009 with a daily decrease of 1.14% and a night - session close of 6,006 with a decrease of 0.05%. PL2602 closed at 6,078 with a daily decrease of 1.14% and a night - session close of 6,076 with a decrease of 0.03% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: PG2512 had a trading volume of 73,634 (an increase of 5,847 from the previous day) and an open interest of 106,040 (an increase of 1,287). PG2601 had a trading volume of 11,489 (an increase of 1,510) and an open interest of 28,420 (an increase of 2,219). PL2601 had a trading volume of 23,828 (an increase of 10,938) and an open interest of 7,956 (a decrease of 1,107). PL2602 had a trading volume of 17,031 (an increase of 11,227) and an open interest of 5,266 (a decrease of 2) [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG12 contract was 107 (compared to 114 the previous day), and the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG12 contract was 157 (compared to 164 the previous day). The spreads between Shandong, East China, and South China propylene and the PL01 contract were - 109, - 59, and - 84 respectively, compared to - 138, - 78, and - 53 the previous day [1] - **Key Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate was 73.9% (compared to 71.7% last week), the MTBE operating rate was 68.0% (compared to 67.8% last week), and the alkylation operating rate was 43.6% (compared to 44.9% last week) [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] 3.3 Market Information - On October 31, 2025, the December CP paper cargo price for propane was 487 USD/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day), and for butane was 472 USD/ton (a decrease of 4 USD/ton from the previous trading day). The January CP paper cargo price for propane was 494 USD/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day) [5] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with different capacities and maintenance time ranges [6] - There are also multiple domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, including those of Huaxing Petrochemical, Rizhao (Overseas CNOOC), etc., with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, and maintenance time ranges [6]