1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Soda Ash - The supply - demand pressure of soda ash still exists. The supply is expected to increase as some previously overhauled devices will resume production, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a relatively high level in the same period. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand, and the high supply and high inventory strongly limit the price rebound space. If there is no significant reduction in supply, short - selling opportunities after the weakening of macro - disturbances can be considered. The SA2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan/ton [6]. 2.2. Glass - Attention should be paid to the dynamic of production line cold - repair under the condition of profit losses. Recently, there are many cold - repair production lines of float glass, and the supply has decreased significantly. The demand of downstream deep - processing enterprises is at a low level in the same period, and they mainly purchase based on rigid demand. The cost support expectation of glass has increased due to the rise in energy prices. The glass 2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - by - Week Views Summary 3.1.1. Soda Ash - **Supply**: The device operating rate is 81.87% (down 4.51% month - on - month), ammonia - soda process is 90.45% (unchanged month - on - month), and combined - soda process is 76.17% (down 3.81%); the weekly output is 77.54 tons (down 4.27 tons), light soda ash output is 36.80 tons (down 1.61 tons), and heavy soda ash output is 40.74 tons (down 2.66 tons) [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for soda ash is 77.73 tons (down 11.87 tons), light soda ash apparent demand is 38.45 tons (down 5.01 tons), and heavy soda ash apparent demand is 39.28 tons (down 6.86 tons) [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 185.19 tons (up 4.03 tons), light soda ash inventory is 94.66 tons (down 0.02 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory is 90.53 tons (up 1.46 tons) [6]. 3.1.2. Glass - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass is 14.49 tons, down 0.62% compared with the 19th. There are 294 glass production lines in China, among which 207 are in production and 87 are cold - repaired and shut down. The in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass is 87320 tons/day, down 4.87% month - on - month [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 73.622 million heavy boxes, down 814,000 heavy boxes month - on - month, a decrease of 1.09% month - on - month and an increase of 9.86% year - on - year. The inventory days are 33.6 days, down 0.1 day compared with the previous period [8]. - **Demand**: As of March 16, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 6.11 days, down 3.74% compared with before the festival and down 23.6% year - on - year [8]. 3.2. Variety Details Decomposition 3.2.1. Market Review - Spot Price - The domestic spot price of soda ash remained stable. As of March 26, 2026, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China is 1230 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash is 1130 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton; in North China, the market price of heavy soda ash is 1280 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash is 1250 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 30 yuan/ton [14]. - The price of the main soda ash contract fluctuated weakly. As of March 26, 2026, the basis of soda ash in Shahe area is - 20 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton month - on - month); the glass futures price was weakly sorted, and the basis of glass in Shahe area is - 76 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan/ton month - on - month) [17]. - As of March 26, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread of soda ash is - 83 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton month - on - month); the 5 - 9 spread of glass is - 148 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton month - on - month); the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread is 189 yuan/ton (up 37 yuan/ton month - on - month) [22]. 3.2.2. Fundamental - Supply - The weekly output of soda ash is 77.54 tons (down 4.27 tons), light soda ash output is 36.80 tons (down 1.61 tons), and heavy soda ash output is 40.74 tons (down 2.66 tons). Some enterprise overhaul devices will resume, and the supply is expected to increase [28]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week is 81.87%, down 4.51% month - on - month. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate is 90.45%, unchanged month - on - month; the combined - soda capacity utilization rate is 76.17%, down 3.81% month - on - month [37]. 3.2.3. Fundamental - Inventory - As of March 26, 2026, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is 185.19 tons (up 4.03 tons), light soda ash inventory is 94.66 tons (down 0.02 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory is 90.53 tons (up 1.46 tons) [41]. 3.2.4. Fundamental - Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash is 77.73 tons, a decrease of 11.87 tons month - on - month. The apparent demand for light soda ash is 38.45 tons, a decrease of 5.01 tons month - on - month, and the apparent demand for heavy soda ash is 39.28 tons, a decrease of 6.86 tons month - on - month. The apparent demand for both light and heavy soda ash decreased month - on - month [45]. - There are 294 glass production lines in China, among which 207 are in production and 87 are cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output of national float glass is 14.49 tons, down 0.62% compared with the 19th. This week, the national float glass output is 101.45 tons, down 0.77% month - on - month and down 8.47% year - on - year. The in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass is 87320 tons/day, down 4.87% month - on - month [47]. - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 73.622 million heavy boxes, down 814,000 heavy boxes month - on - month, a decrease of 1.09% month - on - month and an increase of 9.86% year - on - year. The inventory days are 33.6 days, down 0.1 day compared with the previous period. As of March 16, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 6.11 days, down 3.74% compared with before the festival and down 23.6% year - on - year [52]. 3.2.5. Fundamental - Soda Ash Cost and Profit - As of March 26, 2026, the theoretical profit of Chinese ammonia - soda process soda ash is - 26.20 yuan/ton, down 0.90 yuan/ton month - on - month; the theoretical profit (double - ton) of Chinese combined - soda process soda ash is 215 yuan/ton, down 5.49% month - on - month [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the latest price, trading volume, position, inventory, spread, and exchange rate data of platinum and palladium, as well as macro and industry news, and indicates the trend strength of platinum and palladium [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 487.40 with a -3.65% decline; gold - exchange platinum was at 484.55 with a -4.88% decline; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 1813.30 with a -5.06% decline; London spot platinum (previous day) was 1818.50 with a -5.54% decline. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 353.35 with a -4.12% decline; RMB spot palladium was 337.00 with a -2.60% decline; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1365.00 with a -6.44% decline; London spot palladium (previous day) was 1359.00 with a -3.45% decline [1] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai platinum (kg) was 5,515, a decrease of 2,933 from the previous day, and the position was 21,460. NYMEX platinum (kg) had a trading volume of 22,967, a decrease of 6,931, and a position of 63,467, an increase of 39,795. The trading volume of Shanghai palladium (kg) was 3,404, a decrease of 2,240, and the position was 8,574. NYMEX palladium (kg) had a trading volume of 13,829, an increase of 2,883, and a position of 45,433, an increase of 323 [1] - **ETF Position Data**: Platinum ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 3,067,478, a decrease of 18,005. Palladium ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 1,049,605, a decrease of 6,308 [1] - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai platinum (kg) inventory remained unchanged; NYMEX platinum (ounces) (previous day) was 573,753, a decrease of 5,521. Shanghai palladium (kg) inventory remained unchanged; NYMEX palladium (ounces) (previous day) was 248,374, unchanged [1] - **Spread Data**: PT9995 to PT2606 spread was -2.85, a decrease of 6.42 from the previous day; Shanghai platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 2.50, a decrease of 2.80; buying Shanghai platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 6.04, a decrease of 0.22. Shanghai platinum main contract to London platinum spread (considering VAT) was 31.47, an increase of 7.70. RMB spot palladium price to PD2606 spread was -16.35, an increase of 6.20. Shanghai palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was -0.65, a decrease of 0.85; buying Shanghai palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 4.45, a decrease of 0.18. Shanghai palladium main contract to London palladium spread (considering VAT) was 13, a decrease of 3.48 [1] - **Exchange Rate Data**: The US dollar index was 99.88, an increase of 0.77%. The US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 6.90, an increase of 0.13%; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.90, an increase of 0.14%; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.81, a decrease of 0.02% [1] Macro and Industry News - The European Parliament voted to pass the EU - US trade agreement [4] - Maduro appeared in court in New York again, and his request to dismiss the case was rejected [4] - The US lifted sanctions on more than a dozen Belarusian entities [4] - Pakistan said that its actions against Afghanistan were ongoing [4] - The EU plans to introduce new fees for small packages entering the EU [4] - US media reported that the US Department of Defense is considering diverting military aid to Ukraine to the Middle East [4] - Turkey sold 22 tons of gold in a single week, the largest single - week decline since 2018 [4] - A Turkish oil tanker carrying Russian oil was attacked in the Black Sea, and the Turkish Foreign Ministry said it reserved the right to take necessary measures [4] - The Pakistani Foreign Ministry announced that the suspension of military operations against Afghanistan had ended, and the operations were still ongoing [4] Trend Strength - Platinum trend strength: -1; Palladium trend strength: -1. The trend strength value ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market is in a state of oscillating bottom - seeking [1] - The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is neutral, with a value of 0 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,770 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 217,959 lots and a position of 232,078 lots. PS2605 closing price is 36,750 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 12,429 lots and a position of 32,820 lots [1] - The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract for industrial silicon is - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread for polysilicon is - 860.0 yuan/ton [1] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is + 430 yuan/ton, and for polysilicon (against N - type reinvestment) is + 3250 yuan/ton [1] Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8550 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9900 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type reinvestment material is 40500 yuan/ton [1] Profit - Silicon factory profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 2361.5 yuan/ton, and (Yunnan new standard 553) is - 5229 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit is - 3.8 yuan/kg [1] Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.3 tons, enterprise inventory is 19.8 tons, and industry inventory is 75.1 tons. Polysilicon factory inventory is 34.4 tons [1] Raw Material Cost - The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, Yunnan silicon ore is 230 yuan/ton. Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1475 yuan/ton, and Ningxia is 1200 yuan/ton [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Shandong Electric Power Company released the "Information Sheet" for the February 2026 electricity market. In February, the wind power mechanism electricity price settlement reference price was 171.324 yuan/MWh, a 16.64% decrease from January. The photovoltaic mechanism electricity price settlement reference price was 50.941 yuan/MWh, a 64.83% decrease from January [2][3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment of coke and coking coal is fermenting, and the prices are fluctuating widely. The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [1][2][5] Group 3: Fundamental Tracking Futures Prices - JM2605 closed at 1,249.5 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton or 3.1%. The trading volume was 1,501,424 lots, and the open interest was 390,957 lots, a decrease of 45,887 lots. - J2605 closed at 1,798 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton or 2.7%. The trading volume was 28,124 lots, and the open interest was 34,384 lots, a decrease of 2,320 lots [2] Spot Prices - For coking coal, the prices of some varieties such as Lvliang low - sulfur main coking coal increased, while others remained unchanged. For example, Lvliang low - sulfur main coking coal rose 135 yuan/ton to 1,603 yuan/ton, and Lvliang medium - sulfur fat coal rose 50 yuan/ton to 1,500 yuan/ton. - For coke, all the spot prices remained unchanged [2] Basis and Spreads - The basis of JM2605 for some varieties increased, such as coking coal No. 5 from Inner Mongolia, which increased by 30 yuan/ton to 87.5 yuan/ton. - The spreads between different contract months of coking coal (JM2605 - JM2609) and coke (J2605 - J2609) decreased. JM2605 - JM2609 decreased by 33 yuan/ton to - 122 yuan/ton, and J2605 - J2609 decreased by 7.5 yuan/ton to - 75.5 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - On March 24, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed that CCI Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal S0.7 was 1,564 yuan/ton (+97), CCI Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal S1.3 was 1,330 yuan/ton (+30), and CCI Shanxi high - sulfur main coking coal S1.6 was 1,324 yuan/ton (+30). - On March 24, the online auction of coking coal had a total listing volume of 339,500 tons, with a 0% failure rate, the same as the previous day. The average premium was 94.64 yuan/ton. Due to the continuous fermentation of macro - news, participants had a strong bullish sentiment, and the coal prices rose significantly, with an increase of 32 - 190 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: Near - end trading shows marginal improvement, and prices are firm [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon: Affected by sector sentiment, it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][11]. - Silicomanganese: Disturbed by market information, intraday fluctuations will intensify [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal: Due to the fermentation of market sentiment, both will have wide - range fluctuations [2][14]. - Steam coal: The sentiment is strong, and port transactions are moving upward [2][18]. - Logs: Demand is recovering, and prices are rising [2][20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 824.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton (0.61%). The open interest increased by 3,958 to 445,891 hands. Among the spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 3.0 yuan/ton to 960.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The price increase is driven by cost and inventory structural contradictions, including rising energy costs, low available port inventory, and restricted deliverable goods. The GDP growth target in the 2026 government work report was adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0%, and the scale of policy - based financial instruments was increased. The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel enterprises was 228.18 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.95 tons [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,145 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.10%); the closing price of HC2605 was not clearly stated. In terms of spot prices, the prices in some regions changed slightly. For example, the price of rebar in Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early March 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased. The daily output of steel products decreased. The real estate investment from January to February decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, while the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The import and export of steel and iron ore also changed [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2605 was 6,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of silicomanganese 2605 was 6,480 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan. Spot prices generally increased, and the basis and spread also changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions increased on March 24. Some silicon - iron furnaces were restarted. Some enterprises set the purchase price. There are news that manganese - alloy plants will start production cuts on April 1 [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,249.5 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 3.1%); the closing price of J2605 was 1,798 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan (- 2.7%). Spot prices of some coal types increased, and the basis and spread changed [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 24, the CCI metallurgical coal index increased. The coking coal online auction had no unsold items, with an average premium of 94.64 yuan/ton, and coal prices generally rose [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Steam Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of steam coal in production areas, ports, and overseas markets changed. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie steam coal in Shanxi Datong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 593.0 yuan/ton [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 24, the market sentiment in northern ports was positive, but there were differences in views on the future market. The national raw coal output from January to February decreased slightly by 0.3% year - on - year [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity based on the northern port steam coal spot price is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [19]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of some log varieties also changed, such as the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 1.3% [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The demand for logs recovered, the port inventory decreased, and the prices rebounded. The GDP growth target in the 2026 government work report was adjusted, and the scale of policy - based financial instruments was increased [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: In the short - term, it is a volatile market. After an overnight sharp decline in oil prices, PX followed suit, but the medium - term trend remains strong. It's recommended to buy on dips. The internal - external price difference arbitrage window is partially open, and the PXN and PX - MX Korea have declined. There are changes in supply with some PX plants under maintenance and restart [2][7]. - PTA: In the short - term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium - term, the trend is strong. Do not chase the high price. It's advisable to buy on dips. There is a short - term pressure due to production cuts at some plants and difficulties in spot sales, but the medium - term cost support is strong [2][7]. - MEG: Supply is tight, and the medium - term trend is strong. The import has significantly shrunk, and the port inventory has decreased. The strategy suggests trading in the 4500 - 6000 range and conducting a 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Futures Market - **Prices and Fluctuations**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 10390, 7134, 5574, 8680, and 834.6 respectively, with daily increases of 708, 484, 221, 432, and 61, and daily increase rates of 7.31%, 7.28%, 4.13%, 5.24%, and 7.89% respectively [4]. - **Month - spread**: The previous day's closing prices of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 month - spreads were 410, 188, 150, - 166, and 5.2 respectively, with changes of - 28, - 10, - 44, 22, and 2.7 compared to the day before [4]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, Naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 1301.67 dollars/ton, 6910 yuan/ton, 5470 yuan/ton, 1189.5 dollars/ton, and 110.05 dollars/barrel respectively. Compared with the day before, they changed by 95, 360, 390, 49, and - 6.89 respectively [4]. - **Processing Fees**: The previous day's spot processing fees of PX - Naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai crude oil were 65.17, 278.35, 84.3, 844.62, and - 4.34 respectively, with changes of - 38, - 5.95, 213.88, 18.77, and 0 compared to the day before [4]. Fundamental Data of PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: On March 23, the PX price rose, with two May Asian spot transactions at 1310. The end - of - session physical May had a buy - in at 1305, and June was under negotiation at 1278/1306. The PX valuation on March 23 was 1302 dollars/ton, up 81 dollars from last Friday [5]. - **PTA**: Due to upstream raw material supply issues, the 7.2 - million - ton PTA plant of Yisheng New Materials plans to reduce its load by 30% on April 1. Other Yisheng plants will adjust their operating rates according to raw material availability [5]. - **MEG**: A 185,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South Korea plans to shut down this weekend, and its current load is only around 50% [5]. - **Polyester**: On March 23, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially recovered, with the average sales estimated at around 90% by 4 pm. The sales rates of some direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 61% by around 3 pm [5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene and PTA is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend. The trend intensity of MEG is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: After the overnight sharp decline in oil prices, PX followed the downward trend. In the medium - term, the trend remains strong. It's recommended to buy on dips. The internal - external price difference arbitrage window is partially open, with the 04 contract's domestic price 50 yuan/ton higher than the foreign price and the 05 contract's domestic valuation 300 yuan/ton higher. The overall valuation of the 04 contract has returned to normal. The PXN has dropped to 81 dollars, and PX - MX Korea has dropped to 90 dollars. In terms of supply and demand, a 2 - million - ton PX plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical is under maintenance recently, and a 1.6 - million - ton PX plant in Ningbo Daxie has restarted. The 7.2 - million - ton PTA plant of Yisheng New Materials has reduced its load by 30% due to raw material shortages [7]. - **PTA**: Do not chase the high price. In the medium - term, the trend is strong. It's advisable to buy on dips. The 7.2 - million - ton PTA plant of Yisheng New Materials has reduced its load by 30% due to raw material shortages. Three major polyester filament manufacturers plan further maintenance, which is expected to affect polyester production by 2.8%. Therefore, the spot sales of PTA are relatively difficult, the basis remains low, and the warehouse receipts increase, creating short - term pressure. However, in the medium - term, the cost support from crude oil is strong, and the probability of industrial chain production cuts in the future is still high, so it's not advisable to be bearish. It's recommended to conduct a month - spread positive arbitrage and hold a long PX and short PTA position [7]. - **MEG**: The import has significantly shrunk, and the port inventory has decreased. The unilateral trend is still strong. It's recommended to conduct a 5 - 9 month - spread positive arbitrage. On the supply side, many naphtha cracking units have reduced their loads, and the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has dropped from 80% to 66%. Many ethylene glycol plants in Kuwait and Iran overseas have shut down, and there are difficulties in passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Mandeb. The import volume will accelerate its decline this week. On the demand side, three major polyester filament manufacturers plan to cut production by 8%, which is expected to affect polyester production by 2.8%, increasing the short - term sales difficulty of ethylene glycol. In terms of valuation, the profits of multiple processes such as coal - based and oil - based are differentiated. The strategy suggests trading in the 4500 - 6000 range and conducting a 5 - 9 month - spread positive arbitrage [8].

Report Title - The report is titled "Rebar: Awaiting the Release of Demand" [1] Report Date - The report was published on March 20, 2026 [1] Price Movement - Since late February, rebar futures and spot prices have rebounded from their lows. The main contract reached a maximum of 3,167 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 5.4%. During the same period, spot prices in mainstream regions recorded increases ranging from 20 to 80 yuan/ton [2] Core Views - The core support for the recent increase in steel prices lies in the raw material side. Recent positive factors have driven up the prices of iron ore and coking coal, which in turn have led to the rebound of steel prices from their lows. However, the supply-demand pattern of raw materials has not changed substantially, and the current strong trend is mainly due to non-industrial factors. Once these factors fade, the raw material prices will be under pressure, and the cost support for steel will weaken [3] - Rebar demand has improved marginally, which has also contributed to the increase in steel prices. After the Spring Festival, the demand for construction steel has gradually recovered, and high-frequency demand indicators have rebounded from their lows. As of the week of March 13, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 1.7681 million tons, up for three consecutive weeks after the Spring Festival and slightly higher than the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 4.86%. The daily high-frequency transactions have also rebounded from their lows, with the average daily trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders in March reaching 79,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 127% [3] - The improvement in rebar demand is mainly due to the good performance of downstream industries. Policy support has led to an increase in fixed asset investment, especially in infrastructure investment. In January-February, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 11.4% year-on-year. In addition, the drag from the real estate sector has weakened, although the real estate investment still declined by 11% in January-February, the decline has narrowed significantly compared to the 17.2% decline in the whole year of 2025 [4] - The supply pressure of rebar has increased. The production of rebar has increased, and the inventory is at a high level. As of the week of March 13, the weekly production of rebar reached 1.953 million tons, up for two consecutive weeks and reaching a relatively high level this year. The increase in production mainly comes from the resumption of production by short-process steel mills. The current profitability of steel mills is good, and the production is expected to remain at a high level. In addition, the long-process steel mills are about to resume production, so there is still room for the production of rebar to increase [5] - The inventory of rebar has also increased significantly. The latest inventory is 8.9417 million tons, an increase of 465,200 tons compared to the same period last year. The inventory is mainly concentrated in core consumption areas, mainly due to the active futures-spot arbitrage trading. The current billet inventory is also significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the overall inventory de-stocking pressure is relatively large, which puts some pressure on steel prices [6] - Overall, the positive factors are gradually fermenting, the raw material side is strong, and the demand has improved marginally, which together support the rebar price to rebound from its low. However, the current production of rebar is at a high level and the inventory is high, so the supply-side pressure still exists. It is expected that rebar will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and whether it can break the pattern still depends on the further release of peak-season demand [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Short-term volatile market, medium-term trend remains strong [1][4] - PTA: Short-term correction, medium-term remains strong [1][4] - MEG: Supply is tight, medium-term trend is strong [1][5] Core Viewpoints - PX: Near the end of the month, the terminal sales of the polyester industry chain are difficult, price transmission is blocked, and raw material prices follow the correction. The supply side has a domestic PX load of 84%, and the demand side has a PTA load of 78%. The PX - naphtha spread has narrowed to $100/ton, and the aromatics blending oil economy has recovered [4]. - PTA: There is a short-term correction, but the medium-term remains strong. The supply side has a PTA operating rate of 78%, and the demand side has a polyester load of 87.7%. The profit transmission is smooth, and the PTA valuation is mainly driven by PX costs [4]. - MEG: The expected reduction in imports is expected to expand, and the trend of ethylene glycol is strong. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has dropped from 80% to 66%, and the import volume of ethylene glycol has sharply decreased. The demand side has a polyester load of 87.2%, and the prices of ethylene glycol spot and futures have strengthened with costs [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the PX main contract yesterday was 9914, up 40 with a daily increase of 0.41%. The 5 - 9 month spread was 370, down 118 from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the PTA main contract yesterday was 6834, up 44 with a daily increase of 0.65%. The 5 - 9 month spread was 168, down 74 from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The closing price of the MEG main contract yesterday was 5220, up 371 with a daily increase of 7.65%. The 5 - 9 month spread was 113, up 46 from the previous day [2]. - **PF**: The closing price of the PF main contract yesterday was 8358, up 176 with a daily increase of 2.15%. The 3 - 4 month spread was -166, up 22 from the previous day [2]. - **SC**: The closing price of the SC main contract yesterday was 814.9, up 79.5 with a daily increase of 10.81%. The 2 - 3 month spread was -3.4, down 6.6 from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - **PX**: The CFR China price of PX yesterday was $1263.67/ton, up $14 from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was $214.58/ton, down $113.5 from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The East China price of PTA yesterday was 6865 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 280.7 yuan/ton, up 36.78 yuan from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The spot price of MEG yesterday was 5154 yuan/ton, up 354 yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Naphtha**: The MOPJ price of naphtha yesterday was $1160.5/ton, up $121.25 from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was -$4.34/barrel, the same as the previous day [2]. - **Brent**: The Dated Brent price yesterday was $117.44/barrel, up $4.91 from the previous day [2]. Fundamental Data - **PX**: The end - of - day naphtha price rose, and the current estimated price of April MOPJ is $1024/ton CFR. Today's PX price rose, with the end - of - day physical goods for May at 1246/1291 (long) in negotiation and a buy order for June at 1220, but no transactions. Today's PX estimated price is $1264/ton, up $14 from yesterday [3]. - **PTA**: This week, the PTA device changes include the load reduction of Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton and Fujian Baihong's 2.5 million - ton devices, the short - stop recovery of Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 million - ton device, the restart of Yizheng's 3 million - ton device, and the load increase of other individual devices. As of Thursday, the domestic PTA load was adjusted to 78.2% [3]. - **MEG**: As of March 19, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 66.45% (a 0.32% decrease from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 72.32% (a 2.34% decrease from the previous period) [3]. - **Polyester**: As of Thursday this week, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland was approximately 87.7% [3]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: -1 [4] - PTA trend intensity: -1 [4] - MEG trend intensity: 0 [4] Strategies and Suggestions - **PX**: Unilaterally focus on the 9000 - 12000 range, 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage, and long PX short PTA [4]. - **PTA**: Unilaterally operate in the 6200 - 8000 range, 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage, and long PX short PTA [4]. - **MEG**: Unilaterally operate in the 4500 - 6000 range and 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage [5].

Report Investment Rating - The investment ratings for p-xylene, PTA, and MEG are all "Unilateral Oscillation with an Upward Bias" [1] Core Viewpoints - The trends of p-xylene, PTA, and MEG are all relatively strong. The core risks for p-xylene and PTA are oil price corrections, while the core risk for MEG is changes in the geopolitical situation [5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The previous day's closing price was 10018, with a decline of 162 and a decline rate of 1.59%. The 5 - 9 month spread closed at 496 the previous day, down 82 from the day before [2] - **PTA**: The previous day's closing price was 6918, with a decline of 64 and a decline rate of 0.92%. The 5 - 9 month spread closed at 248 the previous day, down 44 from the day before [2] - **MEG**: The previous day's closing price was 4826, with a decline of 71 and a decline rate of 1.45%. The 5 - 9 month spread closed at 67 the previous day, down 15 from the day before [2] - **PF**: The previous day's closing price was 8278, with a decline of 90 and a decline rate of 1.08%. The 3 - 4 month spread closed at -166 the previous day, up 22 from the day before [2] - **SC**: The previous day's closing price was 761.2, with a decline of 9.3 and a decline rate of 1.21%. The 2 - 3 month spread closed at -1.9 the previous day, up 0.6 from the day before [2] Spot Market - **PX**: The previous day's price was $1274.67 per ton, down $20 from the day before. The PX - naphtha price difference was $214.58, down $113.5 from the day before [2] - **PTA**: The previous day's price was 6775 yuan per ton, down 185 yuan from the day before. The PTA processing fee was 280.7 yuan, up 36.78 yuan from the day before [2] - **MEG**: The previous day's price was 4740 yuan, down 115 yuan from the day before [2] - **Naphtha MOPJ**: The previous day's price was $1032 per ton, down $20.5 from the day before. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil price difference was -$4.34, unchanged from the day before [2] - **Dated Brent**: The previous day's price was $103.31 per barrel, down $0.39 from the day before [2] Fundamental Data - **PX**: The price of PX fell today. The estimated price was $1275 per ton, down $6 from the previous day. The Asian PX operating rate dropped slightly to 83%, with planned maintenance of Japanese and Korean plants and potential export disruptions in the Middle East [3][5] - **MEG**: From March 16th to March 22nd, the planned arrival quantity at major ports was about 150,000 tons. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate dropped from 80% to 66%, and the import arrival volume decreased sharply [3][7] - **Polyester**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to be weak, with an average sales rate of less than 20% by 4 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 44% by 3 pm [3] Strategy Suggestions - **PX**: Unilateral focus on the 9000 - 12000 range, 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage, and long PX short PTA [5] - **PTA**: Unilateral operation in the 6200 - 8000 range, 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage, and long PX short PTA [6] - **MEG**: Unilateral operation in the 4500 - 6000 range and 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are firm, and both are in a wide - range shock [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Industry News - On March 16, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon was 5400 - 5600 yuan/ton in different regions (with an increase of 50 yuan/ton in Ningxia), and the price range of 75 ferrosilicon was 5900 - 6100 yuan/ton (with an increase of 25 yuan/ton in Ningxia). The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1140 - 1160 dollars/ton (+20), and that of 75 was 1160 - 1180 dollars/ton (+10). The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton [1]. - Yunnan Qujing Chenggang finalized the purchase price of 72 ferrosilicon at 5980 yuan/ton in cash, with a quantity of 400 tons [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Price Data - **Futures Contracts**: - For ferrosilicon 2605, the closing price was 5872, down 16 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 118,885 and an open interest of 172,137. For ferrosilicon 2607, the closing price was 5994, down 8, with a trading volume of 63,271 and an open interest of 107,840 [1]. - For silicomanganese 2605, the closing price was 6162, down 14, with a trading volume of 151,573 and an open interest of 364,751. For silicomanganese 2607, the closing price was 6196, down 8, with a trading volume of 70,671 and an open interest of 106,263 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of ferrosilicon (FeSi75 - B: summary price: Inner Mongolia) was 5930 yuan/ton, up 30 from the previous trading day; the price of silicomanganese (FeMn65Si17: Inner Mongolia) was 5580 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 44.5 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material: Shenmu) was 695 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The basis of ferrosilicon (spot - 05 futures) was - 292 yuan/ton, up 16; the basis of silicomanganese (spot - 05 futures) was - 266 yuan/ton, up 44 [1]. - The spread between ferrosilicon 2605 and 2607 was - 122 yuan/ton, down 8; the spread between silicomanganese 2605 and 2607 was - 34 yuan/ton, down 6 [1]. - The spread between silicomanganese 2605 and ferrosilicon 2605 was 290 yuan/ton, up 2; the spread between silicomanganese 2607 and ferrosilicon 2607 was 202 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is also 0 [2].