1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is not explicitly stated in the report, but the short - term view is that the rebar main contract will fluctuate weakly, and the long - term view is that it will continue to fluctuate strongly [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term rebar main contract fluctuates weakly due to the easing of the Middle - East situation and the weakening of iron ore and coking coal driven by the decline in crude oil. However, the downside space is limited. In the future, it will mainly follow the spot price to repair the basis. In the long - term, as it enters the peak season, it is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the downstream resumption progress and destocking speed [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: The rebar main contract on Wednesday had a decrease of 56,176 open positions, and the trading volume shrank compared with the previous trading day, with 593,608 lots. The short - term moving average broke below the 5 - day moving average of 3137, and the daily line was above the medium - term 30 - day moving average of 3096 and the 60 - day moving average of 3115. The short - term trend was weak, while the medium - term trend was strong [1] - **Spot Price**: The mainstream area's HRB400E 20mm rebar spot price was 3,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1] - **Basis**: The futures price was at a discount of 98 yuan/ton to the spot price [2] Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Situation** - **Supply**: In the week of March 19, 2026, the rebar production was 2.0333 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 80,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 228,800 tons. The steel mill's resumption of production was moderate, and the supply - side pressure on prices was limited [3] - **Demand**: In the week of March 19, 2026, the current apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 312,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 349,100 tons. Seasonal resumption of work drove the rebound of apparent demand, but the year - on - year performance was still weak. The intensity of demand recovery was the core variable in the future [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 6.5321 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,400 tons; the steel mill inventory was 2.362 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,200 tons; the total inventory was 8.8941 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,600 tons, entering the weekly destocking for the first time. However, the absolute inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio were still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [3] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel price valuation was at a low level. Geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3] - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real - estate support increased, and the sentiment received phased support [4] Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support repair [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow destocking speed, and bearish capital position structure [5]