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中诚信国际:日28万亿刺激计划效果或不及预期,对其主权信用水平影响有待观察
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2026-01-16 08:25
Group 1: Economic Stimulus Plan Overview - Japan's cabinet approved a fiscal stimulus plan worth 28.1 trillion yen (approximately 273 billion USD) aimed at infrastructure investment and public service improvement[2] - The plan includes 13.5 trillion yen in fiscal stimulus, 7.5 trillion yen in new national and local budget expenditures, and 6 trillion yen in low-interest fiscal investments and loans[2] - The government expects the stimulus measures to boost economic growth by 1.3%[2] Group 2: Challenges and Limitations - The actual impact of the stimulus plan is limited, with only 6.2 trillion yen directly stimulating the economy, and only 4.6 trillion yen allocated for the current fiscal year, equivalent to 0.9% of Japan's GDP[3] - The plan lacks accompanying structural reforms and monetary policy support, which are crucial for long-term economic growth potential[3] - The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain a -0.1% interest rate without further easing measures limits the effectiveness of the stimulus[3] Group 3: Financial Implications - The stimulus plan may exacerbate Japan's fiscal pressure, potentially leading to increased issuance of construction bonds and worsening the fiscal situation and debt burden[3] - The stimulus's lower-than-expected impact led to a rise in the yen against the dollar and a sell-off in the Japanese bond market, pushing the benchmark 10-year government bond yield to -0.009%[3] - The long-term effects of the stimulus on Japan's sovereign credit level remain to be observed, with a focus on future structural reforms, monetary policy changes, and the medium- to long-term effects of fiscal stimulus[4]