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TV报价反弹有限 大摩看面板双虎 评价中立
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-30 14:25
Core Viewpoint - The recent report from Morgan Stanley indicates that while TV panel prices have stabilized, the average price for the third quarter is still expected to decrease by approximately 2% compared to the previous quarter, reflecting limited recovery in pricing momentum for companies like AUO and Innolux [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - In August, the prices for TV, monitor, and laptop panels remained flat month-over-month, which is better than the previously expected decline of 0.3% [1] - The mainstream sizes of TV panels, including 32, 43, 55, 65, and 75 inches, all maintained stable pricing throughout August [1] - Despite the stabilization, the timing for a price rebound remains unclear, which is crucial for the industry's trajectory [1][2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - TV brands have resumed normal procurement starting in August to prepare for promotional demands in China, the U.S., and Europe by year-end [1] - The previous overstock situation is gradually being resolved, and ongoing trade negotiations are stabilizing tariff issues, which helps restore market confidence [1] Group 3: Shipment and Capacity Utilization Outlook - The third quarter is expected to see a low single-digit percentage increase in TV panel shipments, improving from a 9% decline in the second quarter [1] - According to Morgan Stanley's survey, manufacturers' capacity utilization is projected to slightly increase from 75%-80% in the second quarter to 80%-85% in the third quarter, indicating a gradual recovery in shipment momentum [1] Group 4: Future Expectations - Morgan Stanley anticipates that TV panel prices will remain generally flat in the near term, benefiting from a rebound in order momentum, which could enhance the bargaining power of panel manufacturers [2] - The prices for information panels, including monitors and laptop panels, are expected to remain stable in the coming quarters, with the third quarter projected to show flat pricing [2] - Although AUO and Innolux have been diversifying into automotive subsystems and industrial displays, standard panels still constitute the majority of their revenue [2]