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今创集团(603680):轨交景气度持续提升,布局商业航天着眼未来
Guotou Securities· 2025-12-12 06:22
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 15.32 CNY, based on a 2026 PE of 18 times [4][8][16]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the long-term growth in railway construction, with a stable increase in performance due to its focus on rail transit vehicle supporting products [1][10]. - The company is also expanding into the commercial aerospace sector, which is expected to create a second growth curve for long-term development [3][7][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The rail transit industry is experiencing sustained growth, with China's railway operating mileage projected to reach 165,000 kilometers by 2025, including 50,000 kilometers of high-speed rail [1]. - The National Railway Group plans to put into operation over 2,600 kilometers of new lines in 2025, maintaining high industry activity levels [1]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 367 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 149.29%, while the revenue for Q1-Q3 was 3.516 billion CNY, up 15.66% year-on-year [2]. - The company expects to maintain good growth in 2025, benefiting from downstream construction progress [2][10]. Business Strategy - The company is optimizing its asset structure by focusing on its core business and has initiated a layout in the commercial aerospace industry, establishing a new subsidiary for this purpose [3][10]. - The sale of non-core assets, such as the disposal of the Indian 3C company's main assets, is part of the strategy to concentrate on primary business areas [3][10]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.57 billion CNY, 6.22 billion CNY, and 6.84 billion CNY, with growth rates of 23.8%, 11.7%, and 9.9% respectively [8][10]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 579 million CNY, 667 million CNY, and 737 million CNY, with growth rates of 91.7%, 15.2%, and 10.4% respectively [8][10].