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新秀丽(01910.HK):3Q25业绩超预期 中国和途明品牌业绩反弹;4Q25经营杠杆可期
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-14 21:28
Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected Q3 2025 results, driven by strong performance from the China and TUMI brands [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 net sales reached $873 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% at constant exchange rates [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was $143 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.3%, down from 17.6% in the same period last year [1] - Adjusted net profit was $63.6 million, compared to $79.7 million in the previous year [1] Growth Trends - Management anticipates a long-term global passenger travel growth rate of approximately 4% from 2024 to 2029, benefiting from sustained travel demand [1] - The company is expected to gain from the replacement cycle of luggage purchases following the rebound in travel from 2021 to 2023 [1] - Sales need to grow over 5% to achieve operational leverage release, with advertising expenses projected to remain at 6-6.5% of sales [1] Shareholder Returns - The dividend payout ratio is maintained at 40%, with a stock buyback plan to be finalized by the board in early 2026 [1] - The company plans to complete a dual listing in the U.S. by 2026, depending on market conditions [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to stronger-than-expected recovery in Asia and the upcoming Q4 2025 shopping season, revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 have been raised by 3% and 12% to $3.513 billion and $302 million, respectively [1] - For 2026, revenue and net profit forecasts have been increased by 3% and 8% to $3.753 billion and $342 million, respectively [1] - The target price has been raised by 20% to HKD 24, indicating a 44% upside based on a 13x 2026 P/E ratio [1]