Core Viewpoint - Intel, once a chip giant, is struggling in the foundry business, with projected revenue of only $100 million in 2025, despite significant capital expenditures on advanced processes like 18A [2][5][6] Group 1: Market Overview - The global foundry market is rapidly growing, expected to reach $170 billion by 2025, with a broader market size approaching $300 billion, reflecting over 10% year-on-year growth [5][6] - TSMC dominates the market with over 60% share, while other players like SMIC, Samsung, UMC, and GlobalFoundries occupy the remaining market [5][6] Group 2: Intel's Challenges in Foundry - Intel's transition from an IDM model to a foundry service faces significant hurdles, including trust and ecosystem challenges, as TSMC has established a reliable and stable process [7][11] - The company's past IDM model, while effective in a controlled technology iteration environment, has proven inflexible in the fast-paced mobile and AI markets, leading to missed opportunities [9][10] Group 3: Technological Developments - Intel's "Four Nodes in Four Years" plan aims to recover its process lead by launching five new manufacturing technologies from 2021 to 2025, with 18A being a critical step [6][10] - The 18A process, equivalent to 1.8nm, is currently in risk production and is expected to support future generations of client and server products [10][12] Group 4: Future Prospects - The success of Intel's 18A and subsequent 14A nodes is crucial for its return to the foundry market, with potential revenue exceeding $5 billion if it secures major clients like NVIDIA and Broadcom [14][15] - The upcoming years (2025-2027) will be pivotal for Intel to validate its 18A process in the market, with 2027 marking a critical point for its foundry business [14][15][16]