量化宏观策略
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量化、宏观、CTA,到底选谁?
雪球· 2026-01-15 08:06
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing trend of quantitative macro strategies in the investment landscape, emphasizing their growth and effectiveness in asset allocation and risk management [9][10]. Group 1: Growth of Quantitative Macro Strategies - Over the past seven years, the global management scale of quantitative macro strategies has experienced explosive growth, surpassing 60% of the global macro strategy proportion in 2023, with this percentage continuing to rise [9]. - Quantitative macro strategies shift investment decision-making from narrative-driven approaches to rule-based execution through quantitative models, integrating both quantitative trading and macroeconomic logic [10]. Group 2: Addressing Criticisms of Quantitative Macro Strategies - Criticism regarding the rationality of macro strategies is addressed, highlighting that while traditional macro strategies rely on low-frequency economic data, quantitative macro can utilize a broader range of high-frequency data through advancements in machine learning and AI [12][13]. - The article counters the skepticism about the performance of quantitative macro strategies, asserting that many strategies have demonstrated significant excess returns, particularly in volatile market conditions, where they can quickly respond to market signals [16][18]. Group 3: Strategy Implementation - An example of a quantitative macro strategy is provided, which divides its approach into Beta and Alpha components, with the Beta portion using a risk parity model to allocate equal volatility weights to equity indices, government bonds, and commodity futures [15]. - The Alpha component employs machine learning models to identify short-term signals for timing and trading, enhancing returns without increasing overall portfolio risk [15][18]. Group 4: Risk Management and Leverage - Quantitative macro strategies are noted for their cautious approach to leverage, utilizing a more diversified trading portfolio and a programmatic risk control mechanism to monitor leverage usage in real-time [20]. - The article emphasizes that the flexibility in using leverage is a significant advantage of macro strategies, particularly when employing CTA methods to amplify returns during certain market conditions [18][20].