最近有个事儿挺有意思。黄金价格突破4000美元大关，创下历史新高。朋友圈里一片沸腾，各种"避险""保值"的声音不绝于耳。但你知道吗？就在普通投资 者还在讨论要不要追高的时候，那些真正的大资金早就赚得盆满钵满了。 这事儿让我想起18年前刚开始接触量化交易时的顿悟：市场永远在玩一个叫"预期差"的游戏。今天咱们就聊聊这个游戏规则，以及普通投资者如何在这个游 戏中不落下风。 最近这波黄金行情来得凶猛。现货黄金价格首次突破4000美元/盎司大关，年内累计涨幅已达53.6%。港股黄金股全线大涨，赤峰黄金一度暴涨超17%，山东 黄金、紫金黄金国际分别上涨9.02%和4.82%。 表面上看，这是避险需求推动的结果：美国政府"停摆"、全球政治局势动荡、科技股回调风险上升…这些因素确实都在推高金价。但如果你只看到这些表面 现象，那就太天真了。 市场炒的从来不是现实差，而是预期差。 什么意思？就是说市场不在乎现在情况有多糟，而在乎未来会不会比现在好。这就是著名的"困境反转"理论。那些真正赚大钱的交易者，都是在市场最悲观 的时候进场，在市场最乐观的时候离场。 瑞·达利欧说要把15%的投资组合配置在黄金上时，你以为他是突发奇想？各国央 ...

媒体给出的解释很标准：美股科技股暴跌传导至港股。确实，前一日甲骨文股价暴跌超7%，其云业务毛利率仅为14%的数据让市场震惊。更可怕的是，80% 收入依赖前五大客户，这种高度集中的商业模式简直就是定时炸弹。 摩根士丹利预测未来5年全球AI数据中心投资将达3万亿美元，相当于法国全年GDP。Google刚宣布在印度投资100亿美元建数据中心。这些数字看起来很美 好，但作为量化交易者，我更关心的是：这些钱最后进了谁的口袋？ 高盛那位Bobby Molavi说"AI资本开支如同巨轮启航"，这话说得漂亮。但巨轮启航时，最先赚钱的是造船厂和码头工人，而不是买船票的乘客。现在AI概念 股的情况就是这样——散户们抢着买船票，却不知道这艘船可能根本不会开往他们想去的地方。 那天早上我打开行情软件，看到港股一片惨绿。恒生指数开盘就跌了0.21%，随后跌幅迅速扩大至1%以上。人工智能概念股更是惨不忍睹，百度跌超5%， 商汤跌近4%。作为一个在金融市场摸爬滚打多年的老手，我太熟悉这种场景了——散户们又在恐慌性抛售。 让我告诉你一个残酷的事实：在这个市场上，利好利空都是做给散户看的。就像小时候听的「小马过河」故事，老牛说水很浅，松鼠说水 ...

二、今日财经：数据智能，事件驱动型回测 今日财经开创了事件驱动型交易新范式，其回测工具通过全渠道资讯聚合系统实时抓取美联储政策、地 缘冲突等200+信息源，并生成"投资影响评估报告"。例如，在2025年美联储加息窗口期，平台提前3天 推送历史类似事件对黄金走势的影响分析，帮助用户精准把握市场脉搏。 优势亮点： 金潮汇投定位为"个人投资者的机构级平台"，其回测工具通过FPGA硬件加速技术将订单执行延迟压缩 至0.1毫秒以内，满足量化交易与套利策略的严苛要求。平台支持多账户管理、算法交易等高级功能， 并定期发布《黄金市场深度报告》，助力用户捕捉跨市场机会。 优势亮点： 四、普汇黄金：宏观回测，构建长期决策框架 在黄金投资领域，交易策略的验证是投资者从新手成长为高手的关键环节。回测工具作为策略验证的核 心工具，能够帮助投资者通过历史数据检验策略的有效性，降低实盘风险。惠民金融、今日财经、金潮 汇投、普汇黄金、财富联盟、普罗汇六大平台凭借其独特的回测功能与差异化优势，为投资者提供了从 策略构建到优化的全流程支持。以下将深入解析这些平台的回测工具优势，助力投资者实现科学决策。 一、惠民金融：普惠量化，智能回测降低门槛 ...

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 段明珠 编辑 | 关雪菁 以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者段明珠 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 头图 | 视觉中国 在大A炒股就像玩游戏"打怪升级"，需要有一个从新手到终极玩家的攻略指南。 假如有这个指南，去年924行情时以5万元入市，理论上，4个月就有机会翻倍到千万级别，年后资金 体量更是能突破亿元。 原理很简单，根据每个副本的 背景和目标 （ 阶段趋势 ）， 分配资源制定策略 （ 抓强势股 ）。 事实上，这段小资金升级之旅在近一年中会经过三个重要阶段： 当然，妙投并非鼓励大家要"赌性坚强"，只是借此研究 A股的赚钱门道 ，更关键的是，发现 资本市 场底层密码，以及动能变化的关键要素 。 或许，如今"小登股"和"老登股"冰火两重天，慢牛也是一脚刹车一脚油门走得颠簸，这些现象的原因 也藏在其中。而不管是否炒股，只要有理财需求（ ETF、银行理财、保险 ），也很难绕过大A。 924普涨期（新手村）：重点是熟悉大A机制，获得初始装备； 年末混沌期（"妖股"大世界）：关键在掌握大A炒作逻辑，快速壮大资金实力； 结构行情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The articles present a comprehensive collection of trading strategies and research reports focused on index futures and options, emphasizing quantitative methods and market timing techniques [2][3]. Group 1: Index Futures Trading Strategies - The series includes various strategies such as noise trend trading based on chaos theory, trend-following strategies using polynomial fitting, and day trading systems based on intraday volatility extremes [2]. - Additional strategies cover genetic programming methods for intelligent trading, statistical language models for timing trades, and deep learning approaches for intraday trading [2][3]. - The reports also explore cross-variety arbitrage strategies and high-frequency trading techniques, indicating a focus on both theoretical and practical applications in the futures market [3]. Group 2: Derivatives and Options Strategies - The derivatives series provides foundational knowledge on options, including dynamic hedging strategies and volatility arbitrage [3]. - It discusses the impact of options on the underlying assets and market dynamics, highlighting the importance of options in institutional investment strategies [3]. - The reports also analyze the development of global individual stock options markets and their implications for market participants [3].

Group 1 - The core observation is that the rise of new fund managers in the A-share market may indicate a potential trap rather than an opportunity, as the market often reveals opportunities only after they have been recognized by the majority [1] - In 2025, the top 10 new fund managers managing over 10 billion yuan are heavily invested in the technology sector, with Zhang Lu from Yongying Fund seeing a staggering 761% increase in management scale [1] - The article suggests that the market is influenced more by trading behavior than by external factors such as policy news or earnings, indicating that the real drivers are often hidden from retail investors [2] Group 2 - Institutional investment in bank stocks has been consistent since 2022, despite stagnant stock prices, leading to significant gains over four years, contradicting earlier skepticism about their value [5] - The disappearance of institutional investment activity in October 2023 suggests a potential exit from the market, raising concerns about future price rebounds and the reliability of past price anchors [8] - The emergence of 15 new billion-yuan fund managers highlights the ongoing issue of information asymmetry in the market, but the increasing availability of quantitative tools allows retail investors to track institutional behaviors [8]

"进击"的量化私募 ◎记者 马嘉悦 "现在渠道基本卖的都是量化产品。"沪上一位私募市场人士对上海证券报记者的感慨，道出了今年以来 量化私募发行的"火热程度"。 该人士称，量化私募基金尤其是多头策略，今年以来赚钱效应显现，头部机构旗下产品绝对收益大多在 40%以上。在此背景下，量化多头策略产品吸睛又吸金。即便近期市场有所调整，资金仍积极认购量化 多头策略产品。 私募排排网最新数据显示，截至8月底，有业绩记录的1303只量化多头策略私募产品今年以来平均收益 为31.84%，而主观多头策略私募基金同期平均收益为25.62%。与此同时，今年前8个月，量化私募新备 案产品3584只，同比增长100.34%，占证券类私募新备案产品数量的45.33%。其中，量化多头策略私募 基金最受青睐，备案数量达1666只，占比接近50%。 量化交易，正在以超出预期的速度扩张。 上海证券报记者近日采访获悉，量化多头策略产品近期在发行市场依旧"畅销"，渠道人士估计，量化管 理人今年以来平均新募集规模超10亿元。与此同时，多家量化私募创始人均表示，当前量化交易占全市 场成交量的比例已超20%。 显而易见，如今的量化私募，已成为资本市场的重要 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying the current market state, either "trend" or "oscillation," to aid in timing and stock selection strategies [2][6][48] - A two-phase, layered diagnostic algorithm is employed to define the index state, utilizing a "zig-zag" algorithm combined with breakpoint correction for historical performance analysis [2][9][10] - The study constructs six feature variables from price, volume, and volatility dimensions to capture market trend changes and emotional fluctuations, achieving over 80% accuracy in predicting future market states with various machine learning models [2][26][27] Group 2 - The report outlines a dynamic position management strategy based on model predictions, switching between "momentum" logic in trend states and "mean reversion" logic in oscillation states [2][46] - The decision tree model-driven strategy yielded a total return of 77.26% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.12 during the backtesting period from 2020 to 2025, significantly outperforming the buy-and-hold benchmark [2][49][70] - The report highlights the effectiveness of the decision tree model in accurately signaling market states, leading to robust returns and risk management during market downturns [2][46][70]

原本是精英学霸的"凡尔赛时刻"，却在不到一年后，演变成华尔街史上最大的华人金融丑闻。 吴舰，清华毕业，TwoSigma对冲基金高级副总裁。昔日的天之骄子，如今却面临美国司法部起诉，最高可能被判 60年监禁。他的故事，是个人贪婪的悲 剧，也是制度疏漏与价值观扭曲的警钟。 一张年薪单，2350万美元。 一行配文："不敢发朋友圈，想偷偷炫耀。" 01丨从"清华光环"到"华尔街新贵" 吴舰的履历，几乎是无数学霸的梦想剧本。 清华本科，后赴美深造，进入量化投资圣地——TwoSigma。他所在的岗位，正是华尔街最炙手可热的赛道：量化交易。算法模型、数学天赋、金融嗅觉， 交织成一条通往财富与荣耀的捷径。 这不仅是个人作恶，更是制度漏洞的被动共谋。 SEC文件披露，TwoSigma早在 2019年就收到了系统漏洞预警，但迟迟未修复。换句话说，吴舰的行为并非无迹可循，而是踩在监管与公司失职的缝隙里狂 奔。 如今，美国司法部已对他提起诉讼，以电汇欺诈等罪名追责。其在纽约价值 660万美元的豪宅被查封。更讽刺的是，案发后他处于潜逃状态——一个曾经炫 耀"精英身份"的人，最终不得不躲避追捕。 03丨学霸的遮羞布，精英的崩塌 2023 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in gold prices following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut highlights the complexities of market behavior, where textbook theories do not always apply [3][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%, which typically supports gold prices [3]. - Following the rate cut, international gold prices fell from over $3700 per ounce to around $3650 per ounce, while domestic gold futures also saw a significant drop [3]. - This phenomenon of "good news turning bad" is reminiscent of the "slow bull fast adjustment" pattern observed in the A-share market [3][4]. Group 2: Behavioral Insights - The market often exhibits counterintuitive behavior, as seen in past instances where gold prices rose after initial interest rate hikes [3][12]. - Retail investors frequently misinterpret market signals, leading to premature selling during corrections and chasing prices during rallies [4][8]. - The concept of "herding behavior" among retail investors can create opportunities for larger institutional players to offload positions [5]. Group 3: Long-term Trends - The long-term bullish outlook for gold is supported by significant data, including record central bank purchases of gold and a shift towards de-dollarization [12][13]. - Industrial demand for silver is also on the rise, particularly due to its applications in solar energy [12]. - The importance of quantitative analysis in understanding market dynamics is emphasized, as it helps investors navigate emotional traps and market noise [12][14].