研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2026 年 03 月 02 日 1/ 5 研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 721.5 | 719.0 | 2.5 | I01-I05 | -33.0 | -31.5 | -1.5 | | DCE05 | 754.5 | 750.5 | 4.0 | I05-I09 | 21.0 | 19.5 | 1.5 | | DCE09 | 733.5 | 731.0 | 2.5 | I09-I01 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 748 | 746 | 2 | 812 | 85 | 53 | 73 | | 纽曼粉 | 748 | 746 | 2 | 818 | 91 | 60 | 79 | | 麦克粉 | 744 | 743 | 1 | 822 | 95 ...

要点速览版 宏观背景切换 商品主线转向"控通胀与保增长"的平衡，国内告别大基建，进入存量博弈。 核心矛盾 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 黑色系只剩"弱现实+弱预期"，过剩矛盾突出，价格中枢下移、波动收窄。 作者：董良/F3065228、Z0020800/ 一德期货黑色分析师 后市展望 趋势向下但难一次性大跌。钢材端有出口对冲预期，矿价大跌将触发供给成本弹性。 年后以来，黑色板块依然"沉闷"，从宏观背景看是商品交易主逻辑的切换，外部矛盾从"防衰退"转 向"控通胀与稳增长的平衡"，国内则彻底告别"大基建+房地产"，进入"高质量存量需求博弈"阶段，全 球竞争分化，国内产业分化，黑色需求仍有韧性，但直接利好不足。 黑色市场较去年失去"低库存≈高弹性"的逻辑后，只剩下"弱现实+弱预期"组合，所以过剩矛盾较强，结 果是整体价格下移伴随波动区间收窄。2月25日的上涨则是受到唐山减产以及上海地产放开消息的利好 刺激，实际基本面变化不大。 对于铁矿石来说，春节前后的海外天气扰动已消除，全球铁矿石发运总量回升至高位，海飘库存和到港 量虽然有下滑，但同比水平仍高，小周期上又面临至三月中旬的限产， ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: February 25, 2026 [2] Group 2: Spot Market Data - **Australia's Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 740, down 8 daily and 19 weekly, with a disc conversion of 791.1; PB powder price is 744, down 8 daily and 19 weekly, disc conversion is 790.7; Mac powder price is 738, down 8 daily and 19 weekly, disc conversion is 806.2; Jinbuba powder price is 697, down 8 daily and 19 weekly, disc conversion is 786.1; Mixed powder price is 701, down 4 daily and 6 weekly, disc conversion is 836.8; Super special powder price is 638, down 3 daily and 12 weekly, disc conversion is 854.6; Carajás powder price is 859, up 5 daily and down 4 weekly, disc conversion is 790.9 [3]. - **Brazil's Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed powder price is 778, down 5 daily and 13 weekly, disc conversion is 780.9; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 719, down 8 daily and 19 weekly, disc conversion is 788.6; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 724, down 8 daily and 19 weekly [3]. - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore**: Ukrainian concentrate powder price is 840, down 4 daily and up 2 weekly, disc conversion is 926.0; 61% Indian powder price is 686, down 8 daily and 19 weekly; Karara concentrate powder price is 844, down 4 daily and 3 weekly, disc conversion is 860.8; Roy Hill powder price is 731, down 8 daily and 19 weekly, disc conversion is 804.7; KUMBA powder price is 803, down 8 daily and 19 weekly, disc conversion is 781.1; 57% Indian powder price is 573, down 3 daily and 12 weekly; Atlas powder price is 696, down 4 daily and 6 weekly [3]. - **Other Products**: PB block/block premium price is 843, down 5 daily and 7 weekly; Ukrainian pellet/pellet premium price is 840, down 4 daily and up 2 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate price is 944, down 13 daily and 19 weekly, disc conversion is 831.0 [3]. Group 3: Forward Market Data - **Newman Powder**: The forward price is 93.80, up 0.90 daily and 0.25 weekly, with an import profit of 12.44 [3]. - **Mac Powder**: The forward price is 93.60, up 1.00 daily and 0.35 weekly, with an import profit of 33.76 [3]. - **Jinbuba Powder**: The forward price is 86.20, up 1.65 daily and 1.00 weekly, with an import profit of 41.15 [3]. - **Mixed Powder**: The forward price is 91.25, up 0.90 daily and 0.25 weekly, with an import profit of 12.60 [3]. - **Super Special Powder**: The forward price is 85.75, up 0.90 daily and 0.25 weekly, with an import profit of - 1.20 [3]. - **Carajás Powder**: The forward price is 114.05, up 1.05 daily and 0.40 weekly, with an import profit of 9.85 [3]. - **Brazilian Mixed Powder**: The forward price is 103.35, up 1.55 daily and 0.90 weekly, with an import profit of 10.11 [3]. - **Roy Hill Powder**: The forward price is 89.95, up 0.85 daily and 0.20 weekly, with an import profit of 59.17 [3]. Group 4: Futures Market Data - **Dalian Commodity Exchange**: i2701 contract price is 713.5, down 6.5 daily and 18.5 weekly, with a monthly spread of 11.0 and a basis of 67.4, up 1.8 daily and 4.4 weekly; i2605 contract price is 740.5, down 5.5 daily and 21.0 weekly, with a monthly spread of - 27.0 and a basis of 40.4, up 0.8 daily and 6.9 weekly; i2609 contract price is 724.5, down 6.0 daily and 19.5 weekly, with a monthly spread of 16.0 and a basis of 56.4, up 1.3 daily and 5.4 weekly [3]. - **Singapore Exchange**: FE01 contract price is 93.82, up 0.36 daily and 0.28 weekly, with a monthly spread of 0.95 and a basis of - 19.7, up 7.5 daily and 10.1 weekly; FE05 contract price is 95.50, up 0.42 daily and 0.10 weekly, with a monthly spread of - 1.68 and a basis of - 7.5, up 8.8 daily and 9.8 weekly; FE09 contract price is 94.77, up 0.42 daily and 0.25 weekly, with a monthly spread of 0.73 and a basis of - 17.0, up 7.8 daily and 11.0 weekly [3].

铁矿石日报 2026 年 02 月 24 日 研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 713.5 | 720.0 | -6.5 | I01-I05 | -27.0 | -26.0 | -1.0 | | DCE05 | 740.5 | 746.0 | -5.5 | I05-I09 | 16.0 | 15.5 | 0.5 | | DCE09 | 724.5 | 730.5 | -6.0 | I09-I01 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 0.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 752 | 763 | -11 | 816 | 88 | 62 | 78 | | 纽曼粉 | 752 | 763 | -11 | 823 | 95 | 69 | 84 | | 麦克粉 | 745 | 755 | -10 | 823 | 95 | 69 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - The report is the Iron Ore Morning Report released by the Black Team of the Research Center on February 24, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Spot Market Data - **Price Changes**: The prices of various iron ore varieties have different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the price of the Platts 61 Index is 99.60, with a daily change of -0.35 and a weekly change of -0.70. Newman powder is priced at 748, with a daily change of -11 and a weekly change of -10 [3] - **Import Profits**: Different varieties also have different import profits. For instance, the import profit of Newman powder is 23.12, and that of Macfarlane powder is 45.07 [3] Group 3: Futures Market Data - **Dalian Commodity Exchange**: The latest price of i2701 is 720.0, with a daily change of -13.5 and a weekly change of -12.5. The latest price of i2605 is 746.0, with a daily change of -16.0 and a weekly change of -14.5. The latest price of i2609 is 730.5, with a daily change of -14.5 and a weekly change of -12.0 [3] - **Singapore Exchange**: The latest price of FE01 is 97.07, with a daily change of -0.30 and a weekly change of -1.10. The latest price of FE05 is 99.28, with a daily change of -0.42 and a weekly change of -1.07. The latest price of FE09 is 98.27, with a daily change of -0.27 and a weekly change of -1.16 [3] Group 4: Basis and Spread Data - **Basis**: The basis of i2701 is 65.5, with a daily change of 4.1 and a weekly change of 3.9. The basis of i2605 is 39.5, with a daily change of 6.6 and a weekly change of 5.9. The basis of i2609 is 55.0, with a daily change of 5.1 and a weekly change of 3.4 [3] - **Spread**: The monthly spread of i2701 is 10.5, that of i2605 is -26.0, and that of i2609 is 15.5 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view presented in the given content 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - DCE01 remained unchanged at 733.5, DCE05 decreased by 0.5 to 762.0, and DCE09 remained at 745.0 [2] - The spread I01 - I05 increased by 0.5 to -28.5, I05 - I09 decreased by 0.5 to 17.0, and I09 - I01 remained at 11.5 [2] Spot Market Data - Prices of most iron ore spot varieties remained stable, with some minor changes like FMG increasing by 1, SP10 increasing by 4, and Ukrainian concentrate increasing by 8 [2] - The optimal deliverable was BRBF(63%) with a price of 803, 01 - contract basis of 62, 05 - contract basis of 33, and 09 - contract basis of 50 [2] Spot Variety Spread and Import Profit - Some spreads remained stable (e.g., Carajás - PB powder at 97), while others changed slightly (e.g., Newman lump - Newman powder increased by 2) [2] - Import profits also had minor changes: Carajás increased by 1 to 0, Newman powder decreased by 1 to 48, etc. [2] Index Data - The Platts 61% iron ore price decreased by 0.3 to 100.0, 65% remained at 116.5, and 58% decreased by 0.3 to 92.0 [2] - The SGX - DCE spreads remained mostly unchanged (e.g., SGX main - DCE01 at 4.1) [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Category Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of most iron ore varieties showed little to no daily change. For example, Newman powder, PB powder, and most Australian and Brazilian mainstream varieties had a daily change of 0. However, Ukrainian fine powder and Karara fine powder increased by 3, and PB lump/ lump premium increased by 5 [3]. - **Weekly Changes**: Most varieties had a downward trend in weekly changes. For instance, the weekly change of the Platts 61 index was -2.20, and many Australian and Brazilian mainstream varieties decreased by 14 or 13 [3]. Forward Market - **Price Changes**: The forward prices of some varieties also showed certain changes. For example, the daily change of the Newman powder forward price was 0.50, and its weekly change was -1.25 [3]. Futures Market - **Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE)**: The i2701 contract had a price of 732.0 with no daily change and a weekly change of -17.0. The i2605 contract was priced at 761.5 with no daily change and a weekly change of -16.0, and the i2609 contract was at 744.0 with a daily change of 1.0 and a weekly change of -16.0 [3]. - **Singapore Exchange (SGX)**: The FE01 contract was at 97.39 with a daily change of 0.55 and a weekly change of -3.32. The FE05 contract was priced at 99.56 with a daily change of 0.60 and a weekly change of -3.43, and the FE09 contract was at 98.56 with a daily change of 0.53 and a weekly change of -3.41 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Spot Market of Iron Ore - Newman powder: latest price 759, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 811.7, import profit 12.71 [1] - PB powder: latest price 763, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 811.6 [1] - Macfarlane powder: latest price 757, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 826.9, import profit 33.50 [1] - Jinbuba powder: latest price 716, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 806.5, import profit 41.73 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder: latest price 707, daily change +2, weekly change -18, discount to the futures price 843.3, import profit -2.80 [1] - Super special powder: latest price 650, daily change +2, weekly change -21, discount to the futures price 867.8, import profit -8.98 [1] - Carajás powder: latest price 863, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 795.3, import profit -9.57 [1] - Brazilian mixed powder: latest price 791, daily change -10, weekly change -30, discount to the futures price 795.0, import profit 4.90 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6: latest price 738, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 809.5 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG: latest price 743, daily change +1, weekly change -19 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate: latest price 835, daily change 0, weekly change -28, discount to the futures price 927.1 [1] - 61% Indian powder: latest price 705, daily change +1, weekly change -19 [1] - Karara concentrate: latest price 844, daily change 0, weekly change -24, discount to the futures price 860.8 [1] - Roy Hill powder: latest price 750, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 825.6, import profit 56.33 [1] - KUMBA powder: latest price 822, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 800.7 [1] - 57% Indian powder: latest price 585, daily change +2, weekly change -21 [1] - Atlas powder: latest price 702, daily change +2, weekly change -18 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate: latest price 963, daily change 0, weekly change -8, discount to the futures price 850.0 [1] 3.2 Futures Market of Iron Ore - DCE i2701 contract: latest price 732.0, daily change -0.5, weekly change -21.5, monthly spread 11.0 [1] - DCE i2605 contract: latest price 761.5, daily change +1.0, weekly change -21.5, monthly spread -29.5 [1] - DCE i2609 contract: latest price 743.0, daily change +0.5, weekly change -23.0, monthly spread 18.5 [1] - SGX FE01 contract: latest price 96.84, daily change -1.33, weekly change -8.78, monthly spread 1.19 [1] - SGX FE05 contract: latest price 98.96, daily change -1.39, weekly change -4.76, monthly spread -2.12 [1] - SGX FE09 contract: latest price 98.03, daily change -1.40, weekly change -4.70, monthly spread 0.93 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - Newman powder: price 758, daily change -8, weekly change -28, discounted to the futures price 810.7, import profit 20.02 [1] - PB powder: price 762, daily change -8, weekly change -28, discounted to the futures price 810.5 [1] - Macfayden powder: price 756, daily change -8, weekly change -28, discounted to the futures price 825.8, import profit 40.55 [1] - Jinbuba powder: price 715, daily change -8, weekly change -28, discounted to the futures price 805.4, import profit 48.11 [1] - Mixed powder: price 705, daily change -10, weekly change -23, discounted to the futures price 841.2, import profit 1.08 [1] - Super special powder: price 648, daily change -6, weekly change -30, discounted to the futures price 865.6, import profit -5.19 [1] - Carajás powder: price 862, daily change -8, weekly change -28, discounted to the futures price 794.2, import profit -3.25 [1] - Brazilian blended powder: price 801, daily change -8, weekly change -20, discounted to the futures price 805.9, import profit 21.08 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6: price 737, daily change -8, weekly change -17, discounted to the futures price 808.4 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG: price 742, daily change -8, weekly change -17 [1] - Ukrainian iron concentrate: price 835, daily change -8, weekly change -38, discounted to the futures price 920.4 [1] - 61% Indian powder: price 704, daily change -8, weekly change -28 [1] - Karara iron concentrate: price 844, daily change -8, weekly change -34, discounted to the futures price 860.8 [1] - Roy Hill powder: price 749, daily change -8, weekly change -28, discounted to the futures price 824.5, import profit 61.14 [1] - KUMBA powder: price 821, daily change -8, weekly change -28, discounted to the futures price 799.7 [1] - 57% Indian powder: price 583, daily change -6, weekly change -30 [1] - Atlas powder: price 700, daily change -10, weekly change -23 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate: price 963, daily change -1, weekly change -19, discounted to the futures price 850.0 [1] Futures Market - i2701 contract: price 732.5, daily change -8.5, weekly change -27.5, monthly spread 10.0 [1] - i2605 contract: price 760.5, daily change -8.0, weekly change -31.0, monthly spread -28.0 [1] - i2609 contract: price 742.5, daily change -8.5, weekly change -30.0, monthly spread 18.0 [1] - FE01 contract: price 98.17, daily change -2.16, weekly change -7.53, monthly spread 1.26 [1] - FE05 contract: price 100.35, daily change -2.05, weekly change -4.45, monthly spread -2.18 [1] - FE09 contract: price 99.43, daily change -2.14, weekly change -4.34, monthly spread 0.92 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - Not explicitly stated in the provided content 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Spot Market Data - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 766, down 11 daily and 29 weekly; PB powder at 770, down 11 daily and 29 weekly; Macfarlane powder at 764, down 11 daily and 29 weekly; Jinbuba at 723, down 11 daily and 29 weekly; Mixed powder at 715, down 8 daily and 15 weekly; Super special powder at 654, down 12 daily and 28 weekly; Carajás powder at 870, down 11 daily and 20 weekly [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian blend at 809, down 11 daily and 21 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 at 745, down 11 daily and 18 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG at 750, down 11 daily and 18 weekly [1] - **Other Iron Ore**: Ukrainian concentrate powder at 843, down 16 daily and 37 weekly; 61% Indian powder at 712, down 11 daily and 29 weekly; Karara concentrate powder at 852, down 12 daily and 33 weekly; Roy Hill powder at 757, down 11 daily and 29 weekly; KUMBA powder at 829, down 11 daily and 29 weekly; 57% Indian powder at 589, down 12 daily and 28 weekly; Atlas powder at 710, down 8 daily and 15 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate powder at 964, down 5 daily and 18 weekly [1] Futures Market Data - **DCE Contracts**: i2701 at 741.0, down 12.5 daily and 24.5 weekly; i2605 at 768.5, down 13.0 daily and 30.0 weekly; i2609 at 751.0, down 13.5 daily and 28.0 weekly [1] - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 at 100.33, up 0.29 daily and down 5.17 weekly; FE05 at 102.40, up 0.31 daily and down 0.67 weekly; FE09 at 101.57, up 0.27 daily and down 0.53 weekly [1] Other Data - **Import Profit**: Newman powder at 17.18; Macfarlane powder at 38.05; Jinbuba at 45.19; Mixed powder at 0.57; Super special powder at -9.16; Carajás powder at -6.52; Brazilian blend at 17.90; Roy Hill powder at 58.75; Ukrainian concentrate powder at 15.50 [1] - **Monthly Spread**: i2701 - i2605 at 10.0, up 0.6 daily and 2.9 weekly; i2605 - i2609 at -27.5, up 1.1 daily and 8.4 weekly; i2609 - i2701 at 17.5, up 1.6 daily and 6.4 weekly; FE01 - FE05 at 1.24, up 2.8 daily and 43.1 weekly; FE05 - FE09 at -2.07, up 2.1 daily and 5.3 weekly; FE09 - FE01 at 0.83, up 2.9 daily and 5.6 weekly [1]