Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of near - end iron ore is supported by factors such as the decrease in Australian shipments due to hurricanes, the increase in Brazilian shipments, the improvement of molten iron production after the Two Sessions, and the enhanced expectation of rising shipping costs caused by geopolitical conflicts. However, the medium - and long - term trend depends on the intensity of steel mill复产, the recovery rhythm of molten iron production, and the actual realization of terminal demand. The de - stocking pressure under the high - inventory background will restrict the upward movement of prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and cautious operation is recommended [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basis Rate and Spot Price - The basis rate of I2701 on March 31, 2026, was 769.0, down 2.5 from March 30; the basis rate of I2605 was 808.0, down 5.0; the basis rate of I2609 was 786.5, down 2.0. The spot prices of various iron ore varieties also showed different degrees of decline, such as the price of Jinbuba powder dropped from 737 to 730, a decrease of 7.0 [1] 2. Index and Import Profit - Mysteel 65% index decreased by 21, Mysteel 62% index decreased by 30, Mysteel 58% index decreased by 21. Import profits of different varieties also changed, for example, the import profit of Newman powder increased by 0.11 [1] 3. MS Inventory - The total iron ore inventory on March 27, 2026, was 17000, down 98 from March 20. Australian ore inventory decreased by 8, Brazilian ore inventory decreased by 44, and trader inventory decreased by 53 [1] 4. Strategy - **Night - session review**: The futures price of iron ore i2605 closed at 815 yuan/ton, i2609 at 792.5 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.5 yuan. The price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 777 (-7) yuan/ton, and the optimal delivery product, Newman powder, was 789 yuan after discounting the warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) [1] - **Important information**: From March 23 to March 29, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 120.7 tons to 1273.7 tons. In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indexes all returned to the expansion range. On March 31, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports increased by 98.5% month - on - month, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 17.27% month - on - month. As of now, there are about 300 coking production enterprises in China, with a total coke production capacity of about 5.70 billion tons. In mid - March, the output of key coal enterprises increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year [1] - **Trading strategy**: Volatile [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of iron ore is expected to be resilient in the short term due to the cost increase driven by geopolitical conflicts. The price is likely to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with the lower - bound range expected to move up to $95 - 100 per ton. The sustainability of the price increase depends on energy prices and global demand changes [1][2][17]. 3. Section Summaries Supply - The Middle East is not a core iron ore producing region, and the impact on global iron ore supply is mainly reflected in marginal pricing disturbances. In 2024, Iran exported 22.42 million tons of iron ore, and in 2025, China imported a total of 22.38 million tons of iron ore from Iran and Oman. The proportion of Iran's iron ore exports in global seaborne trade and China's imports is relatively low. So, the halt of Iran's iron ore exports due to the Middle East situation has a limited impact on global iron ore supply [5]. - China mainly imports iron ore concentrates and pellets from Iran and Oman. After the conflict, the premium of these varieties increased but has recently stabilized. The main trade flows of iron ore from Australia and Brazil are not affected by the conflict - affected routes, so the actual impact on the main trade flows is limited [5]. Cost - The escalation of the Middle East situation has led to an increase in crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices, which has directly raised shipping costs and mining costs. After the conflict, the diesel price in Australia rose from 1.69 AUD/L to 2.54 AUD/L. The production cost of Australian iron ore producers has increased, and according to Goldman Sachs' calculation, the unit cost of major Australian iron ore enterprises in the Pilbara region will increase by $2.5 per ton [8]. - The freight rates of major iron ore shipping routes have increased. As of March 27, the freight rate of Capesize vessels from Brazil to China increased from $23.4 per ton to $30.69 per ton, a rise of 31.15%, reaching a one - year high. The freight rate from Australia to China also reached a one - year high [9]. Inventory - The iron ore inventory at Chinese ports has climbed to over 170 million tons, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years. In contrast, the steel mills' equity iron ore inventory is at a relatively low level, increasing the pressure on port inventory accumulation [14]. - The BHP trade negotiation issue has restricted the circulation of some mainstream iron ore varieties, creating a situation of overall inventory surplus but structural tightness. This has led to an emotional impact and pushed up the premium of these varieties. If the negotiation issue is resolved, the iron ore price may face downward pressure [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the Two Sessions, demand improved and this period's hot metal production increased slightly. The Iran conflict is expected to raise shipping costs, providing short - term support for iron ore prices. However, the medium - and long - term trend depends on the intensity of steel mill复产, the recovery rhythm of hot metal production, and the actual fulfillment of terminal demand. The de - stocking pressure under the high - inventory background will restrict the later price increase. Short - term negotiation progress should be monitored as prices fluctuate greatly and cautious operation is advised [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Morning Report Data - **Futures Price Changes**: On March 27, 2026, for contract 12701, the price was 769.5, up 2.0 from the previous day; for 12605, it was 812.0, down 5.0; for 12609, it was 788.0, up 0.5 [1] - **Spread Changes**: The spread between 101 - 105 was - 42.5 on March 27, 2026, up 7.0; 105 - 109 was 24.0, down 5.5; 109 - 101 was 18.5, down 1.5 [1] - **Basis Changes**: 01 basis was 20 on March 27, 2026, up 5; 05 basis was - 23, up 19; 09 basis was 1, up 10 [1] - **Spot Price Changes**: The price of Jinbuba powder was 736 on March 27, 2026, down 8.0; PB powder was 783, down 8.0; Ximan powder was 747, unchanged; etc. [1] - **Import Profit Changes**: The import profit of Kabin powder was - 21 on March 27, 2026, down 41; Ximan powder was - 37, down 25; Jinbuba powder was - 13, down 35; etc. [1] - **Inventory and Shipment Data**: Total inventory on March 27, 2026, was 17,000, down 98 from March 20; Australian ore inventory was 8315, down 8; Brazilian ore inventory was 5030, down 44. Australian shipments to the world were 2458 on March 20, up 74 from March 13; Brazilian shipments were 549, down 23 [1] 3.2 Night - Session Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Futures iron ore i2605 closed at 813 yuan/ton, i2609 at 790 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 23 yuan. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 783 (-8) yuan/ton, and the standard - product equivalent (warehouse) was 815 yuan. The optimal delivery product, Newman powder, had a warehouse receipt equivalent (warehouse) of 789 yuan [2] 3.3 Important Information - **Military Attack Impact**: On March 27, the US and Israel attacked Iranian steel mills. It is expected to create a rigid supply gap of 500 - 550 tons/year in the short term, with the most prominent gaps in plates, billets, and long - products [2] - **Market Transaction Volume**: On March 27, the national main - port iron ore trading volume was 66.50 tons, a 3.6% decrease from the previous day; 237 mainstream trading companies' construction steel trading volume was 9.44 tons, a 5.9% increase [2] - **Steel - Mill Production Indicators**: Last week, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a 1.25 - percentage - point increase; the profit rate of steel mills was 43.29%, a 0.87 - percentage - point increase; the daily average hot - metal output was 231.09 tons, a 2.94 - ton increase. The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was 58.87%, a 2.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 3.87 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The average operating rate was 68.82%, a 1.93 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.51 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [2] - **Real - Estate Transaction Data**: On March 28, the single - day online - signing trading volume of second - hand houses (including commercial properties) in Shanghai reached 1585 units, setting a new high in the past 5 years [3] 3.4 Long - Short Logic and Trading Strategy - **Long - Short Logic**: Friday's spot - market trading volume decreased, and spot prices fell by 3 - 8 yuan. In the short term, demand improvement, increased hot - metal output, and expected higher shipping costs support the iron - ore price. In the long term, the price trend depends on steel - mill复产, hot - metal output recovery, and terminal - demand fulfillment. High - inventory de - stocking pressure restricts price increases [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided in the report

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the current steel plate shows a narrow sideways oscillation, with no obvious upward or downward drive, and the current plate follows the price fluctuations of furnace materials. The output of hot-rolled coils is increasing while that of rebar is decreasing. After the Two Sessions, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is gradually recovering, and enterprises are more willing to produce hot-rolled coils than rebar. The production profit of hot-rolled coils is rising while that of rebar is falling. After the festival, the downstream industries are gradually resuming work and production, and the demand for building materials is increasing, but the increase rate is gradually slowing down. The downstream manufacturing industry is promoting the resumption of work and production, and the procurement demand for hot-rolled coils in industries such as home appliances and automobiles is gradually increasing. With the increase in demand, the inventory in factories and society has both decreased. During the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April", the steel inventory is expected to be reduced, and the pressure will be alleviated. The plate is still treated as a range oscillation. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction strength brought by the traditional "Golden March and Silver April" peak seasons, as well as the drag on the demand side caused by the high global energy prices and the interruption of some raw material supply chains due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [9][40]. - For iron ore, the current plate is mainly affected by three factors: the negotiation between Chinese and Australian miners, overseas cyclone weather, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. In terms of the Sino-Australian negotiation, the Jinbuba powder sold to China was selected as the key restricted product, and the Newman powder was also affected by the ban, which intensified the market shortage. If the ban on BHP's Jinbuba powder and Newman powder is lifted later, the release of the frozen inventory will have a downward impact on the current price. In terms of the geopolitical conflict, the diesel supply in Australia is tight, and the soaring diesel price will increase the unit cost of major iron ore producers in the Pilbara region. The high energy cost erodes the profits of mining enterprises and increases the risk of unexpected supply interruptions. In terms of climate, the tropical cyclone "Narelle" closed the ports this week, and the impact weakened later. Overall, the short-term fundamentals of iron ore lack driving force, and external news has increased the disturbance to the plate. Attention should be paid to the negotiation situation between Chinese and Australian miners, as well as the impact of fuel costs on mining and transportation costs after the energy price rises due to the geopolitical conflict [10][42]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market Focus: There was a regional freight adjustment in the steel logistics market in the southwest region. The direct delivery and warehouse self-pickup freight of some steel mills in Sichuan and Chongqing increased slightly, with a rise of 4% - 11%, while the overall situation in Yunnan and Guizhou was stable. An Australian ore mining company warned that due to the limited diesel supply caused by the Iran war, the operation of the Australian mining industry began to be affected, forcing the iron ore mining company to reduce some business activities. Affected by the tropical cyclone "Narelle", several ports in Western Australia were closed. The general manager of Navigate Commodities said that the cyclone did not damage the important port infrastructure in Western Australia, but the supply and replenishment plan of marine fuel was still a major concern for iron ore transporters. The situation in the Iran war continued to deteriorate, leading to energy supply interruptions, intensifying fuel rationing, and pushing up transportation costs. The commissioning ceremony of the Simandou bonded crushing project at Liaoning Port (Dalian Port) and the arrival ceremony of the first ship of iron ore from SimFer were held. The iron ore on this ship was all from the Simandou project. The Indian steel ministry sought help from the petroleum ministry to ensure that steel mills would not be affected by the shortage of liquefied petroleum gas. India, the world's second-largest crude steel producer, was facing the most serious liquefied petroleum gas supply crisis in decades due to the Iran war [6]. - Fundamental Situation: The output of hot-rolled coils is increasing while that of rebar is decreasing. The production profit of hot-rolled coils is rising while that of rebar is falling. After the festival, the steel mills' demand is gradually recovering. The inflection point of steel inventory reduction has appeared. The global iron ore shipment has increased slightly, and the freight rate has decreased slightly. The steel mills' iron ore inventory is at a low level, while the port inventory is at a high level. The hot metal output and the steel mills' daily iron ore consumption have increased simultaneously. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar has widened slightly [7][11]. 3.2 Multi-Empty Focus - Analysis of Multi-Empty Factors for Finished Products: The positive factors include the strong furnace material prices providing cost support and the entry into the traditional peak demand seasons of "Golden March and Silver April", with the inflection point of steel inventory appearing. The negative factors include the real estate not yet stabilizing and the limited expected increase in demand, as well as the high energy prices, the decline in the overseas interest rate cut expectation, and the rising stagflation expectation [14]. - Analysis of Multi-Empty Factors for Iron Ore: The positive factors include the increase in the marginal cost of future mining and transportation due to the rising energy prices caused by the geopolitical conflict, the increase in hot metal output and the high daily iron ore consumption, and the disturbance of the shipping rhythm by overseas weather factors. The negative factors include the high port inventory and the expected release of frozen inventory due to the easing of the negotiation between Chinese and Australian mines [16]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Output: As of the week of March 27, the actual output of rebar in construction steel enterprises was 197,870 tons, a decrease of 5460 tons compared with the previous week; the actual output of hot-rolled coils was 305,610 tons, an increase of 5400 tons compared with the previous week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.63%, an increase of 1.1% compared with the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 58.87%, an increase of 2.3% compared with the previous week [18]. - Production Profit: As of March 26, the blast furnace production profit of rebar in sample enterprises was 57 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit of hot-rolled coils was 14 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace production cost of rebar was 3422 yuan/ton [23]. - Demand: As of the week of March 27, the consumption of rebar was 225,370 tons, an increase of 17,280 tons compared with the previous week. After the festival, the downstream industries were gradually resuming work and production, and the demand for building materials was increasing, but the increase rate was gradually slowing down. The consumption of hot-rolled coils was 313,630 tons, an increase of 3120 tons compared with the previous week. The consumption of cold-rolled coils was 91,210 tons, a decrease of 3400 tons compared with the previous week, and the output of cold-rolled coils was 89,200 tons, an increase of 350 tons compared with the previous week. The downstream manufacturing industry was promoting the resumption of work and production, and the procurement demand for hot-rolled coils in industries such as home appliances and automobiles was gradually increasing [24]. - Real Estate Demand: From January to February 2026, the national real estate development investment was 96.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 5.35372 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%. At the end of February, the unsold commercial housing area was 799.98 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [26]. - Inventory: As of March 27, the in-plant inventory of rebar was 219,160 tons, a decrease of 17,040 tons compared with the previous week, and the social inventory in 35 cities was 672,750 tons, a decrease of 10,460 tons compared with the previous week. The in-plant inventory of hot-rolled coils was 83,850 tons, a decrease of 1110 tons compared with the previous week, and the social inventory in 33 cities was 369,420 tons, a decrease of 6910 tons compared with the previous week. With the increase in demand, the inventory in factories and society has both decreased. During the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April", the steel inventory is expected to be reduced, and the pressure will be alleviated [28]. - Iron Ore Shipment and Freight Rate: As of the week of March 20, the total global iron ore shipment was 3.1443 million tons, an increase of 95,500 tons compared with the previous week. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2.5595 million tons, an increase of 95,000 tons compared with the previous week. The total non-mainstream shipment was 584,800 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with the previous week. As of March 26, the freight price of iron ore from Port Hedland to Qingdao Port by Capesize vessels was 10.63 US dollars/ton, which decreased slightly compared with the previous period but was still higher than that at the beginning of the year [32]. - Iron Ore Inventory: As of the week of March 20, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 2.2716 million tons, an increase of 56,600 tons compared with the previous period; as of the week of March 27, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 17.00031 million tons, a decrease of 98,090 tons compared with the previous period; the daily port clearance volume was 313,170 tons, a decrease of 7800 tons compared with the previous period; the inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel enterprises was 8.97856 million tons, a decrease of 55,500 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory at 45 ports remained at a high level of 170 million tons, but the inventory of imported ore at the steel mill end was at a low level, and the overall supply chain did not show a serious surplus [34]. - Hot Metal Output and Iron Ore Consumption: As of March 27, the daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel enterprises was 231,090 tons, an increase of 2940 tons compared with the previous period; the daily average consumption of imported iron ore was 284,590 tons, an increase of 3440 tons compared with the previous period. After the Two Sessions, the hot metal output will gradually increase, driving the iron ore consumption to gradually increase [36]. - Spread between Hot-Rolled Coils and Rebar: As of March 26, the spread between the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coils was 177 yuan/ton, which increased compared with the previous week [38]. 3.4 Outlook for the Future - For steel, the current steel plate shows a narrow sideways oscillation, with no obvious upward or downward drive, and the current plate follows the price fluctuations of furnace materials. The output of hot-rolled coils is increasing while that of rebar is decreasing. After the Two Sessions, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is gradually recovering, and enterprises are more willing to produce hot-rolled coils than rebar. The production profit of hot-rolled coils is rising while that of rebar is falling. After the festival, the downstream industries are gradually resuming work and production, and the demand for building materials is increasing, but the increase rate is gradually slowing down. The downstream manufacturing industry is promoting the resumption of work and production, and the procurement demand for hot-rolled coils in industries such as home appliances and automobiles is gradually increasing. With the increase in demand, the inventory in factories and society has both decreased. During the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April", the steel inventory is expected to be reduced, and the pressure will be alleviated. The plate is still treated as a range oscillation. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction strength brought by the traditional "Golden March and Silver April" peak seasons, as well as the drag on the demand side caused by the high global energy prices and the interruption of some raw material supply chains due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [40]. - For iron ore, the current plate is mainly affected by three factors: the negotiation between Chinese and Australian miners, overseas cyclone weather, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. In terms of the Sino-Australian negotiation, the Jinbuba powder sold to China was selected as the key restricted product, and the Newman powder was also affected by the ban, which intensified the market shortage. If the ban on BHP's Jinbuba powder and Newman powder is lifted later, the release of the frozen inventory will have a downward impact on the current price. In terms of the geopolitical conflict, the diesel supply in Australia is tight, and the soaring diesel price will increase the unit cost of major iron ore producers in the Pilbara region. The high energy cost erodes the profits of mining enterprises and increases the risk of unexpected supply interruptions. In terms of climate, the tropical cyclone "Narelle" closed the ports this week, and the impact weakened later. Overall, the short-term fundamentals of iron ore lack driving force, and external news has increased the disturbance to the plate. Attention should be paid to the negotiation situation between Chinese and Australian miners, as well as the impact of fuel costs on mining and transportation costs after the energy price rises due to the geopolitical conflict [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No information provided. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalog Futures Prices - DCE01 increased from 759.0 to 762.5, a rise of 3.5 [2] - DCE05 increased from 815.5 to 819.0, a rise of 3.5 [2] - DCE09 increased from 781.0 to 786.5, a rise of 5.5 [2] Spread between Contracts - I01 - I05 remained unchanged at -56.5 [2] - I05 - I09 decreased from 34.5 to 32.5, a drop of 2.0 [2] - I09 - I01 increased from 22.0 to 24.0, a rise of 2.0 [2] Spot Prices - PB powder (60.8%) increased from 787 to 794, a rise of 7 [2] - Newman powder increased from 732 to 739, a rise of 7 [2] - Mac powder increased from 778 to 780, a rise of 2 [2] Spot Price Spreads - The spread between Carajás fines and PB powder remained unchanged at 157 [2] - The spread between Newman powder and Jimbour increased from -11 to -9, a rise of 2 [2] - The spread between Carajás fines and Jimbour increased from 205 to 207, a rise of 2 [2] Import Profits - The import profit of Carajás fines increased from 13 to 15, a rise of 2 [2] - The import profit of Newman powder increased from -23 to -22, a rise of 1 [2] - The import profit of PB powder decreased from -20 to -21, a drop of 1 [2] Platts Index - Platts iron ore 61% price increased from 108.4 to 109.6, a rise of 1.1 [2] - Platts iron ore 65% price increased from 126.1 to 127.2, a rise of 1.2 [2] - Platts iron ore 58% price increased from 98.1 to 99.1, a rise of 1.0 [2] USD Spread between Domestic and Overseas Markets - SGX main - DCE01 increased from 13.2 to 14.0, a rise of 0.8 [2] - SGX main - DCE05 increased from 6.7 to 6.8, a rise of 0.1 [2] - SGX main - DCE09 increased from 10.7 to 11.1, a rise of 0.4 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The trading strategy for iron ore is to expect a volatile market [2] - The short - term support for iron ore prices comes from factors such as improved demand after the Two Sessions, a significant rebound in hot metal production, and the expected increase in shipping costs due to the Iran conflict. However, the medium - to - long - term trend depends on the intensity of steel mill复产, the recovery rhythm of hot metal production, and the actual realization of terminal demand. The de - stocking pressure under the high - inventory background will restrict the upward movement of prices later. The positive spread runs strongly, and short - term attention should be paid to the negotiation progress and cautious operation is required [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Basis Rate - For I2701 on March 19, 2026, the price was 756.5, down 1.5 from March 18; I01 - I05 was - 51.0, up 2.0 from March 18 [1] - For I2605 on March 19, 2026, the price was 807.5, down 3.5 from March 18; I05 - I09 was 31.5, down 0.5 from March 18 [1] - For I2609 on March 19, 2026, the price was 776.0, down 3.0 from March 18; I09 - I01 was - 1.5, up 2 from March 18 [1] 2. Spot - The prices of various iron ore varieties on March 19, 2026, generally decreased compared with March 18. For example, the price of Jinbuba powder decreased by 3.0 to 743, and the price of PB powder decreased by 3.0 to 790 [1] - The optimal delivery product is Newman powder, with a price of 784 on March 19, 2026, up 16 from March 18 [1] 3. Index - Mysteel 65% index for the current month decreased by 0.80 to 106.30 on March 19, 2026, compared with March 18 [1] - Mysteel 62% index for 1 - month decreased by 1.49 to 107.31 on March 19, 2026, compared with March 18 [1] - Mysteel 58% index for 2 - month decreased by 1.24 to 106.21 on March 19, 2026, compared with March 18 [1] 4. MS Inventory - The total inventory on March 13, 2026, was 17188, up 70 from March 6 [1] - Australian ore inventory was 8329 on March 13, 2026, up 245 from March 6; Brazilian ore inventory was 5105, down 215 from March 6 [1] - The inventory of traders was 11450 on March 13, 2026, up 90 from March 6 [1] 5. Strategy - Night - session review: The futures price of iron ore i2605 closed at 814.5 yuan/ton, and i2609 closed at 781 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 33.5 yuan. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 (- 3) yuan/ton, and the standard - product price (factory warehouse) was 822 yuan. The optimal delivery product, Newman powder, had a warehouse - receipt price (factory warehouse) of 773 yuan [1] - Important information: - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 839.82 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.85 million tons, an increase of 2.3%; the total inventory was 1946.23 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28.66 million tons, a decrease of 1.5%; the apparent consumption was 868.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% [1] - As of March 18, the resumption rate of 10692 construction sites across the country was 62%, a month - on - month increase of 19.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.62 percentage points [1] - On March 19, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 61.30 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.3%; the trading volume of construction steel of 237 mainstream traders was 8.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% [1] - On March 19, the average cost of 76 independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was 3403 yuan/ton, remaining stable day - on - day. The average profit was a loss of 89 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 22 yuan/ton [1] - From January to February 2026, China's rebar production was 2691.0 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1% [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Report Date: March 19, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Spot Market Data Australia - **Newman Powder**: The latest price is 735, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 34. The discounted futures price is 785.6, the forward price is 102.45, with a daily decrease of 1.40 and a weekly increase of 2.85. The import profit is -54.47 [3]. - **PB Powder**: The latest price is 793, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20. The discounted futures price is 844.5 [3]. - **Mac Powder**: The latest price is 780, with a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 19. The discounted futures price is 851.9, the forward price is 102.50, with a daily decrease of 1.50 and a weekly increase of 3.15. The import profit is 14.05 [3]. - **Jimbobara Powder**: The latest price is 746, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20. The discounted futures price is 838.8, the forward price is 96.70, with a daily decrease of 1.15 and a weekly increase of 4.15. The import profit is 16.14 [3]. - **Mixed Powder**: The latest price is 720, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 13. The discounted futures price is 857.4, the forward price is 100.65, with a daily decrease of 1.20 and a weekly increase of 3.25. The import profit is -33.81 [3]. - **Ultra - Special Powder**: The latest price is 670, with a daily decrease of 6 and a weekly increase of 15. The discounted futures price is 889.8, the forward price is 94.90, with a daily decrease of 1.10 and a weekly increase of 3.05. The import profit is -32.06 [3]. - **Caribbean Powder**: The latest price is 951, with a daily decrease of 2 and a weekly increase of 41. The discounted futures price is 890.4, the forward price is 127.25, with a daily decrease of 1.20 and a weekly increase of 2.80. The import profit is 9.94 [3]. Brazil - **Brazilian Mixed Powder**: The latest price is 830, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20. The discounted futures price is 837.4, the forward price is 115.20, with a daily decrease of 1.05 and a weekly increase of 3.40. The import profit is -20.08 [3]. - **Brazilian Coarse IOC6**: The latest price is 753, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20. The discounted futures price is 832.0 [3]. - **Brazilian Coarse SSFG**: The latest price is 758, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20 [3]. Non - mainstream - **Ukrainian Concentrate**: The latest price is 890, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 23. The discounted futures price is 978.0 [3]. - **61% Indian Powder**: The latest price is 735, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20 [3]. - **Karara Concentrate**: The latest price is 896, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 23. The discounted futures price is 918.3 [3]. - **Roy Hill Powder**: The latest price is 780, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20. The discounted futures price is 858.5, the forward price is 100.70, with a daily decrease of 1.35 and a weekly increase of 3.20. The import profit is 33.83 [3]. - **KUMBA Powder**: The latest price is 852, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20. The discounted futures price is 831.5 [3]. - **57% Indian Powder**: The latest price is 605, with a daily decrease of 6 and a weekly increase of 15 [3]. - **Atlas Powder**: The latest price is 715, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 13 [3]. Others - **PB Lump/Lump Premium**: The latest price is 905, with a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 22. The lump premium is 0.1685, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.002 [3]. - **Ukrainian Pellet/Pellet Premium**: The latest price is 890, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 23. The pellet premium is 17.55, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.10 [3]. - **Tangshan Iron Concentrate**: The latest price is 969, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 6. The discounted futures price is 856.0 [3]. Group 3: Futures Market Data Dalian Commodity Exchange - **i2701**: The latest price is 758.0, with a daily decrease of 7.0 and a weekly increase of 17.5. The monthly spread is 21.0, the basis/inside - outside spread is 27.6, with a daily increase of 7.0 and a weekly decrease of 42.8 [3]. - **i2605**: The latest price is 811.0, with a daily decrease of 5.5 and a weekly increase of 23.5. The monthly spread is -53.0, the basis/inside - outside spread is -25.4, with a daily increase of 5.5 and a weekly decrease of 48.8 [3]. - **i2609**: The latest price is 779.0, with a daily decrease of 6.5 and a weekly increase of 20.5. The monthly spread is 32.0, the basis/inside - outside spread is 6.6, with a daily increase of 6.5 and a weekly decrease of 45.8 [3]. Singapore Exchange - **FE01**: The latest price is 102.39, with a daily increase of 0.89 and a weekly increase of 2.55. The monthly spread is 2.00, the basis/inside - outside spread is -32.9, with a daily decrease of 0.4 and a weekly increase of 5.4 [3]. - **FE05**: The latest price is 107.45, with a daily increase of 1.27 and a weekly increase of 4.37. The monthly spread is -5.06, the basis/inside - outside spread is -20.8, with a daily decrease of 2.4 and a weekly decrease of 4.3 [3]. - **FE09**: The latest price is 104.39, with a daily increase of 0.96 and a weekly increase of 3.08. The monthly spread is 3.06, the basis/inside - outside spread is -28.0, with a daily increase of 0.5 and a weekly increase of 4.0 [3].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Iron Ore Morning Report released by the Black Team of the Research Center on March 16, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Spot Market - The latest price of the Platts 61 index is 109.10, with a daily change of 4.00 and a weekly change of 7.75 [3] - Newman powder price is 730, with a daily change of -20 and a weekly change of -30, and the import profit is -60.08 [3] - PB powder price is 797, with a daily change of 9 and a weekly change of 33 [3] - Australian mainstream iron ore prices generally show an upward trend, with different daily and weekly changes for each variety [3] - Brazilian mainstream iron ore prices also show an upward trend, with varying changes in different varieties [3] - Non - mainstream iron ore prices such as Ukrainian concentrate powder, 61% Indian powder, etc. also have respective price changes [3] - The price of PB block/block ore premium is 913, with a daily change of 15 and a weekly change of 35; the price of U - ball/ball pellet premium is 895, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of 30 [3] - The price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 973, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 16 [3] Group 3: Futures Market - For Dalian Commodity Exchange contracts: i2701 latest price is 758.5, with a daily change of 9.0 and a weekly change of 29.5; i2605 latest price is 811.5, with a daily change of 16.0 and a weekly change of 39.5; i2609 latest price is 777.5, with a daily change of 11.0 and a weekly change of 31.0 [3] - For Singapore Exchange contracts: FE01 latest price is 103.07, with a daily change of 2.85 and a weekly change of 6.69; FE05 latest price is 106.75, with a daily change of 3.29 and a weekly change of 7.27; FE09 latest price is 104.65, with a daily change of 2.93 and a weekly change of 6.88 [3] - The report also shows the month - to - month spreads and basis/inside - outside spreads (in RMB) for different contracts [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 12th afternoon, there was a market rumor that BHP Newman powder was added to the spot restriction list with the last pick - up date on March 20th. The authenticity of this rumor needs to be rationally evaluated [4][5] - If the rumor is true, in the short - term, the supply of high - grade iron ore will shrink, pushing up raw material costs. With the steel mills' resumption of production and restocking, the molten iron output is likely to rise above 2.3 million tons, and iron ore prices may still rise. In the medium - term, the supply pressure will ease as alternative mines (from Brazil and Guinea) arrive at ports as scheduled, and the market trend will depend on terminal demand and molten iron output [7] - If the rumor is true, in terms of price spreads, the price of Newman powder is likely to rise in the short - term due to supply contraction and increased demand from steel mills'复产. Substitute products like Carajas fines, Brazilian high - grade ore, and Guinean ore will strengthen, while BHP's medium - and low - grade ores will be further marginalized, causing the price spread between varieties to widen. For the inter - period spread, the March 20th deadline will intensify short - term hoarding, and the near - month contracts and spot prices may be stronger than the far - month ones [7] - Since September 2025, Sinomine Resource Group has successively restricted the procurement of BHP's Jimblebar fines and Kingfisher fines. In early March 2026, international media reported an expansion of restrictions to core varieties such as Newman powder and Mac fines, banning new shipments from April onwards. Even if the rumor is true, the market has already priced it in to some extent [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Rumor Content** - On March 12th afternoon, the market rumor stated that BHP Newman powder was added to the spot restriction list, with the last pick - up date on March 20th [4] - **Rumor Authenticity** - The rumor has not been officially confirmed, and its authenticity needs to be rationally evaluated [5] - **Impact if the Rumor is True** - **Market Impact** - Short - term: Supply contraction of high - grade ore will push up raw material costs. With steel mills' resumption of production and restocking, molten iron output is likely to exceed 2.3 million tons, and iron ore prices may rise [7] - Medium - term: Supply pressure will ease as alternative mines arrive at ports, and the market trend will depend on terminal demand and molten iron output [7] - **Price Spread Impact** - **Variety Spread**: Newman powder's price is likely to rise in the short - term. Substitute products will strengthen, and BHP's medium - and low - grade ores will be marginalized, widening the variety spread [7] - **Inter - period Spread**: The March 20th deadline will intensify short - term hoarding, and near - month contracts and spot prices may be stronger than far - month ones [7] - **Real Information** - Since September 2025, Sinomine Resource Group has restricted the procurement of BHP's Jimblebar fines and Kingfisher fines. In early March 2026, restrictions were expanded to core varieties, and the market has already priced in the potential impact [7]

Report Overview - The report is an iron ore daily report dated March 12, 2026, focusing on the iron ore market [2] Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: DCE01 closed at 749.5, up 9.0 from yesterday; DCE05 closed at 795.5, up 8.0; DCE09 closed at 766.5, up 8.0 [2] - **Spread Changes**: I01 - I05 spread was -46.0, up 1.0; I05 - I09 spread was 29.0, unchanged; I09 - I01 spread was 17.0, down 1.0 [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Various iron ore powders and concentrates showed price changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. For example, PB powder (60.8%) increased by 1 to 770, while super special powder decreased by 1 to 654 [2] - **Base Differences**: The base differences between different contracts and spot prices were provided, with the optimal delivery product being BRBF (62.5%) [2] - **Price Spreads**: Spreads between different spot varieties were also presented, such as the spread between PB powder and super special powder increasing by 2 to 120 [2] Indexes and Profits - **Platts Indexes**: The Platts iron ore 61% price was 105.1, up 0.3; the 65% price was 124.5, up 0.3; the 58% price remained unchanged at 95.6 [2] - **Import Profits**: Import profits of different iron ore varieties changed, with some increasing and some remaining stable. For example, the import profit of PB powder increased by 3 to -10 [2] - **USD Spreads**: The spreads between SGX and DCE contracts decreased, with SGX - DCE01 down 0.2 to 11.9, SGX - DCE05 down 0.5 to 5.9, and SGX - DCE09 down 0.2 to 9.6 [2] Graphs - The report included multiple graphs showing the base differences between the optimal delivery product and different contracts, cross - period spreads, import profits of different iron ore varieties, price spreads between different varieties, and the relationship between iron ore internal and external USD spreads and steel mill cash profits [8][11][12]