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1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/1 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 PB - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 PB - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 -57% 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/10/9 | | | | | | | 现货 | | | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | | 品种 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | | | 普氏62指数 | | 103.45 | | ...

| | | | | | 现货 | | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | | 普氏62指数 | | 106.55 | 1.35 | 0.20 | | | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 | 795 | 0 | 10 | | 850.9 | 104.50 | 0.15 | 1.15 | -35.39 | | | | PB粉 | 799 | 0 | 10 | | 848.1 | 107.30 | 0.30 | 1.50 | -16.11 | | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 789 | 2 | 12 | | 861.7 | 103.25 | 0.00 | 1.15 | -7.00 | | | | 金布巴 | 770 | 0 | 10 | | 864.6 | 100.50 | -0.10 | 0.65 | -11.52 | | | 主流 | 混合粉 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by market sentiment, iron ore fluctuated at a high level this week. With the increase in production of domestic and imported iron ore, the port inventory decreased while the steel mill inventory increased due to pre - holiday restocking. The daily average hot metal output remained high, and although steel demand was weak, it had some resilience and was expected to maintain a certain profit under policy influence. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in the short - term long side [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Trend Review - **1.1 Iron Ore Main Contract Trend**: Affected by market sentiment, iron ore fluctuated at a high level this week [7]. - **1.2 Iron Ore Spot Trend**: The prices of various iron ore powders such as PB powder, super special powder, etc. are presented, showing price changes [11]. 3.2 Part 2: Basis and Spread - **2.1 Iron Ore Futures - Spot Spread Trend**: The main basis is -8, 01 - 05 spread is 21.5, pb - super special spread is 77, and barite - pb spread is 9 [16]. - **2.2 Ratio of Rebar to Iron Ore**: The rebar - iron ore ratio continued to be weak [19]. 3.3 Part 3: Supply - Demand Analysis - **3.1 Iron Ore Supply**: The weekly shipment of mainstream mines was 2126.3 tons, and the domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.65%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore increased compared to the previous period [22]. - **3.2 International Shipping Freight**: The shipping price from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 10.86 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 24.45 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 2205 [25]. - **3.3 Iron Ore Inventory - Imported Ore Inventory**: Port inventory is 13801.08 tons, Australian ore inventory is 5775.57 tons, Brazilian ore inventory is 5266.52 tons, iron ore arrival volume is 2269.4 tons, and trade ore inventory is 8980.59 tons [28]. - **3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - Steel Mill Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory was 1380.08 tons, a decrease of 48.39 tons compared to the previous period. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 9309.43 tons, an increase of 316.38 tons compared to the previous period. The available days of imported iron ore for steel mills was 22 days, an increase of 2 days compared to the previous period, due to pre - holiday restocking [29]. - **3.5 Iron Ore Demand**: The daily average hot metal output was 241.02 tons, an increase of 0.47 tons compared to the previous period. The daily average port clearance volume remained at a relatively high level, and the hot metal output maintained a high level with stronger resilience than expected [32]. 3.4 Part 4: Outlook - Affected by market sentiment, iron ore fluctuated at a high level this week. The production of domestic and imported iron ore increased, port inventory decreased, and steel mill inventory increased due to pre - holiday restocking. The daily average hot metal output remained high. Although steel demand was weak, it had some resilience and was expected to maintain a certain profit under policy influence. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in the short - term long side [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No information provided 3. Summary Based on Related Content 3.1 Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder was priced at 795, unchanged daily but up 24 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 850.9; PB powder was at 799, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 848.1; Macfarlane powder was at 785, unchanged daily and up 25 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 857.4; Jinbuba powder was at 763, unchanged daily and up 23 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 857.0; mainstream mixed powder was at 745, up 1 daily and 33 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 875.4; super special powder was at 705, unchanged daily and up 29 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 922.2; Roy Hill powder was at 769, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 846.5 [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore was at 820, down 4 daily and up 18 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 835.2; Brazilian coarse IOC6 was at 804, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG was at 809, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate was at 927, up 2 daily and 30 weekly; 61% Indian powder was at 752, unchanged daily and up 23 weekly; Karara concentrate was at 927, up 2 daily and 30 weekly; KUMBA powder was at 858, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly; 57% Indian powder was at 645, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly; Atlas powder was at 740, up 1 daily and 33 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate was at 1004, up 3 daily and 18 weekly [1]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts**: i2601 was at 805.0, unchanged daily and up 28 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 42.5; i2605 was at 781.0, unchanged daily and up 26.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 24.0; i2509 was at 847.5, down 2.5 daily and up 34.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of - 66.5 [1]. - **Singapore Exchange Contracts**: FE01 was at 103.70, up 1.69 daily and 3.73 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 3.05; FE05 was at 101.26, up 1.62 daily and 3.66 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 2.44; FE09 was at 106.75, up 1.50 daily and 3.41 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of - 5.49 [1]. 3.3 Premium and Other Information - **Premium**: Information on PB block/block ore premium, Ukrainian ball/ball pellet premium was presented in the form of charts, but specific data was not detailed in the text [1]. - **Import Profit**: Import profits of different iron ore varieties were provided, such as Newman powder's import profit was - 36.82, PB powder's was - 15.30, etc. [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 779, down 2 from the previous day and up 3 week - on - week; PB powder is at 782, down 3 and up 3 respectively; Macfarlane powder is 770, down 1 and up 4; Jinbuba powder is 749, down 2 and down 1; Super Special powder is 688, up 3 and up 15; Carajás powder is 897, up 3 and up 6 [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian blend is 805, down 5 and down 11; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 787, down 3 and up 3; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 792, down 3 and up 3 [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate is 910, unchanged and up 7; 61% Indian powder is 738, down 2 and down 1; Karara concentrate is 910, unchanged and up 7; Roy Hill powder is 752, down 3 and up 3; KUMBA powder is 841, down 3 and up 3; 57% Indian powder is 628, down 2 and up 10; Atlas powder is 717, down 3 and up 4; Tangshan iron concentrate is 996, up 7 and up 7 [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is at 789.5, down 2.0 and up 2.0; i2605 is 765.0, down 2.5 and up 1.5; i2509 is 834.5, up 3.5 and up 31.5 [1]. - **FE Contracts**: FE01 is 101.53, up 2.31 and down 1.46; FE05 is 99.16, up 2.35 and down 1.47; FE09 is 104.67, up 2.12 and up 0.47 [1]. Price Differences - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: For i2601, it's 45.0, with a day - change of - 3.4 and a week - change of - 7.5; for i2605, it's 24.5, with a day - change of - 2.9 and a week - change of - 7.0; for i2509, it's - 69.5, with a day - change of - 8.9 and a week - change of - 37.0 [1]. - **Other Price Differences**: FE01 has a price difference of 3.14, with a day - change of 1.9 and a week - change of 12.7; FE05 has a price difference of 2.37, with a day - change of 0.4 and a week - change of 13.8; FE09 has a price difference of - 5.51, with a day - change of 7.3 and a week - change of 16.1 [1].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The report focuses on iron ore, suggesting that carbon elements transfer profits and the ore price will fluctuate at a high level [1]. 2. Fundamental Tracking Futures - The closing price of iron ore futures was 791.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan/ton or 1.87% [1]. - The position of contract 12601 was 506,983 lots, with an increase of 41,053 lots [1]. Spot Prices - Imported ore: The price of Carajás fines (65%) was 900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; PB fines (61.5%) was 785 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 752 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; Super Special fines (56.5%) was 685 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic ore: The price of Langna ore (66%) was 931 yuan/ton, unchanged; Laiwu ore (65%) was 849 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Spreads - The basis of contract 12601 against Super Special fines was 105.2 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton; against Jinbuba fines was 42.4 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread between 12509 - 12601 was 39.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton; between 12601 - 12605 was 24 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton [1]. - The price difference between Carajás fines - PB fines was 115 yuan/ton, unchanged; PB fines - Jinbuba fines was 33 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; PB fines - Super Special fines was 100 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3. Macro and Industry News - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [1].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - No information provided Group 3: Summary of Spot Market - The latest prices of Newman powder, PB powder, and Mac powder are 781, 785, and 771 respectively, with daily changes of 10, 10, and 11, and weekly changes of 4, 4, and 4 [1] - The latest prices of Kumba powder, 57% Indian powder, and Atlas powder are 844, 630, and 720 respectively, with daily changes of 10, 9, and 13, and weekly changes of 4, 12, and 7 [1] - The latest price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 989, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 3 [1] Group 4: Summary of Futures Market - The latest prices of i2601, i2605, and i2509 are 791.5, 767.5, and 831.0 respectively, with daily changes of 14.5, 13.0, and 18.0, and weekly changes of 1.0, 2.0, and 20.0 [1] - The latest prices of FE01, FE05, and FE09 are 99.97, 97.60, and 103.34 respectively, with daily changes of 1.47, 1.54, and 1.63, and weekly changes of -1.62, -1.60, and 0.84 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - No relevant content found Group 3: Summary of Iron Ore Spot Market - The latest price of Newman powder is 765, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -2. The discounted price on the disk is 818.3, and the import profit is -33.33 [1] - PB powder's latest price is 769, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of -1. The discounted price on the disk is 815.2, and the import profit is -15.16 [1] - The latest price of Mac powder is 755, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -3. The discounted price on the disk is 824.7, and the import profit is -9.56 [1] - Similar data is provided for other iron ore types such as Jimbob, mixed powder, super special powder, etc. [1] Group 4: Summary of Iron Ore Futures Market - For the i2601 contract, the latest price is 771.5, with a daily change of 5.5 and a weekly change of -5.0. The monthly spread is 30.5, and relevant spread data is also given [1] - For the i2605 contract, the latest price is 750.0, with a daily change of 7.0 and a weekly change of -4.0. The monthly spread is 21.5, and relevant spread data is also given [1] - Similar data is provided for other futures contracts such as i2509, FE01, FE05, FE09 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 762, down 14 daily and 14 weekly; PB powder is 765, down 14 daily and 15 weekly; Mac powder is 750, down 16 daily and 16 weekly; Jinbuba powder is 738, down 12 daily and 14 weekly; Mixed powder is 703, down 15 daily and 10 weekly; Super special powder is 663, down 10 daily and 5 weekly; Carajás powder is 873, down 18 daily and 14 weekly [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed powder is 802, down 14 daily and 10 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 770, down 14 daily and 18 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 775, down 14 daily and 18 weekly [1]. - **Other Iron Ore**: Ukrainian concentrate powder is 885, down 18 daily and 5 weekly; 61% Indian powder is 727, down 12 daily and 14 weekly; Karara concentrate powder is 885, down 18 daily and 5 weekly; Roy Hill powder is 735, down 14 daily and 15 weekly; KUMBA powder is 824, down 14 daily and 15 weekly; 57% Indian powder is 608, down 10 daily and 5 weekly; Atlas powder is 698, down 15 daily and 10 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 982, down 7 daily and 7 weekly [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is 766.0, down 21.5 daily and 21.0 weekly; i2605 is 743.0, down 20.5 daily and 20.0 weekly; i2509 is 801.5, down 1.5 daily and 5.0 weekly [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is 102.52, down 0.47 daily and up 2.68 weekly; FE05 is 100.09, down 0.54 daily and up 2.54 weekly; FE09 is 103.50, down 0.70 daily and up 2.91 weekly [1].