大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 795.0 | 790.5 | 4.5 | I01-I05 | 20.5 | 19.5 | 1.0 | | DCE05 | 774.5 | 771.0 | 3.5 | I05-I09 | 21.5 | 20.5 | 1.0 | | DCE09 | 753.0 | 750.5 | 2.5 | I09-I01 | -42.0 | -40.0 | -2.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 777 | 770 | 7 | 846 | 48 | 67 | 88 | | 纽曼粉 | 778 | 774 | 4 | 838 | 40 | 59 | 80 | | 麦克粉 | 775 | 768 | 7 | 841 | 43 | 62 | 83 | | 金布巴粉(60.5%) | 754 | 74 ...

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1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/1 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 PB - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 PB - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 -57% 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/10/9 | | | | | | | 现货 | | | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | | 品种 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | | | 普氏62指数 | | 103.45 | | ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 09 月 24 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 803.5 | 802.5 | 1.0 | I01-I05 | 20.5 | 22.5 | -2.0 | | DCE05 | 783.0 | 780.0 | 3.0 | I05-I09 | 21.0 | 20.0 | 1.0 | | DCE09 | 762.0 | 760.0 | 2.0 | I09-I01 | -41.5 | -42.5 | 1.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 783 | 787 | -4 | 853 | 42 | 65 | 85 | | 纽曼粉 | 790 | 796 | -6 | 845 | 35 | 57 | 77 | | 麦克粉 | 788 | 790 | -2 | 855 | 45 | 67 | 87 ...

| | | | | | 现货 | | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | | 普氏62指数 | | 106.55 | 1.35 | 0.20 | | | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 | 795 | 0 | 10 | | 850.9 | 104.50 | 0.15 | 1.15 | -35.39 | | | | PB粉 | 799 | 0 | 10 | | 848.1 | 107.30 | 0.30 | 1.50 | -16.11 | | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 789 | 2 | 12 | | 861.7 | 103.25 | 0.00 | 1.15 | -7.00 | | | | 金布巴 | 770 | 0 | 10 | | 864.6 | 100.50 | -0.10 | 0.65 | -11.52 | | | 主流 | 混合粉 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, price data slightly deteriorated, with PPI improving but CPI under pressure, indicating ongoing downward pressure on market prices. Credit and social financing data declined across the board, and government bond net financing remained an important support for the social financing scale. Fundamentally, in terms of supply, the decline in rebar production this week was basically flat, and the space for a continued significant decline in production is limited. In terms of demand, the consumption of building materials improved during the peak season, while the consumption of plates decreased. With the supply of raw materials increasing, the real demand for furnace materials being high under the background of steel mill复产, and downstream increasing inventory appropriately, rebar rebounded slightly [73][74]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Rebar Futures Market Review 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: In August 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year with the decline narrowing. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year-on-year, M1 increased by 6% year-on-year, and M0 increased by 11.7% year-on-year [8]. - Policy information: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 0.25 percentage points on September 17, 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission published an article emphasizing efforts to promote the construction of a unified national market [8]. 1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - Not provided in the content 2. Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, Basis 2.1 Macro - Money Supply - The SHIBOR on September 19, 2025, was 1.5470, up from 1.5280 on August 19, 2025, with a bearish outlook due to the rising interest rate [17]. 2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - As of a certain date, the price of rebar HRB400 20mm in Shanghai was 3,250 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.62%, a monthly decrease of 2.11%, and a yearly decrease of 2.11%. The prices and their changes of other commodities such as hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal are also provided [23]. 2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The basis (spot - futures) of rebar on September 19, 2025, was 58 yuan/ton, showing different values on other dates [26]. 3. Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - Not provided in the content 3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products) - Not provided in the content 3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot) - Not provided in the content 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises in China on September 19, 2025, was 83.98%, compared with 83.83% on September 12, 2025 [38]. 3.5 Electric Furnace Profit - Not provided in the content 3.6 Electric Furnace Operation - Not provided in the content 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - Not provided in the content 3.8 Weekly Steel Output - On September 19, 2025, the weekly output of steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) was 770.4 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.064897367 and a week - on - week decrease of 0.002899151 [49]. 3.9 Weekly Rebar Output - On September 19, 2025, the weekly output of rebar was 206.45 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.025857594 and a year - on - year increase of 0.062915101 [53]. 3.10 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel - Not provided in the content 3.11 Social Inventory of Steel - Not provided in the content 3.13 Social Inventory of Rebar - Not provided in the content 3.14 Building Materials Transactions - Not provided in the content 3.15 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price - Not provided in the content 3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area - Not provided in the content 3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions - Not provided in the content 4. Future Outlook - Market price data shows downward pressure, and government bond net financing is an important support for social financing. In terms of rebar fundamentals, supply is expected to remain at a low level, and demand for building materials is improving during the peak season. With raw material supply increasing and cost support, rebar rebounded slightly [73][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by market sentiment, iron ore fluctuated at a high level this week. With the increase in production of domestic and imported iron ore, the port inventory decreased while the steel mill inventory increased due to pre - holiday restocking. The daily average hot metal output remained high, and although steel demand was weak, it had some resilience and was expected to maintain a certain profit under policy influence. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in the short - term long side [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Trend Review - **1.1 Iron Ore Main Contract Trend**: Affected by market sentiment, iron ore fluctuated at a high level this week [7]. - **1.2 Iron Ore Spot Trend**: The prices of various iron ore powders such as PB powder, super special powder, etc. are presented, showing price changes [11]. 3.2 Part 2: Basis and Spread - **2.1 Iron Ore Futures - Spot Spread Trend**: The main basis is -8, 01 - 05 spread is 21.5, pb - super special spread is 77, and barite - pb spread is 9 [16]. - **2.2 Ratio of Rebar to Iron Ore**: The rebar - iron ore ratio continued to be weak [19]. 3.3 Part 3: Supply - Demand Analysis - **3.1 Iron Ore Supply**: The weekly shipment of mainstream mines was 2126.3 tons, and the domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.65%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore increased compared to the previous period [22]. - **3.2 International Shipping Freight**: The shipping price from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 10.86 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 24.45 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 2205 [25]. - **3.3 Iron Ore Inventory - Imported Ore Inventory**: Port inventory is 13801.08 tons, Australian ore inventory is 5775.57 tons, Brazilian ore inventory is 5266.52 tons, iron ore arrival volume is 2269.4 tons, and trade ore inventory is 8980.59 tons [28]. - **3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - Steel Mill Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory was 1380.08 tons, a decrease of 48.39 tons compared to the previous period. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 9309.43 tons, an increase of 316.38 tons compared to the previous period. The available days of imported iron ore for steel mills was 22 days, an increase of 2 days compared to the previous period, due to pre - holiday restocking [29]. - **3.5 Iron Ore Demand**: The daily average hot metal output was 241.02 tons, an increase of 0.47 tons compared to the previous period. The daily average port clearance volume remained at a relatively high level, and the hot metal output maintained a high level with stronger resilience than expected [32]. 3.4 Part 4: Outlook - Affected by market sentiment, iron ore fluctuated at a high level this week. The production of domestic and imported iron ore increased, port inventory decreased, and steel mill inventory increased due to pre - holiday restocking. The daily average hot metal output remained high. Although steel demand was weak, it had some resilience and was expected to maintain a certain profit under policy influence. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in the short - term long side [36].

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a slight recovery in demand and supply dynamics, with a notable increase in global shipments and a decrease in port arrivals, indicating a potential tightening of the market [7]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments have significantly increased, reaching 35.731 million tons, up by 8.169 million tons week-on-week [5]. - Port arrivals have decreased to 23.623 million tons, down by 0.857 million tons week-on-week, primarily due to the recovery of shipments from Brazilian ports [5][7]. Demand - Daily average iron and steel production has risen to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons week-on-week [4]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces is at 83.83%, up by 3.43% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate is at 90.18%, up by 4.39% week-on-week [4]. - Steel mill profit margins have slightly decreased to 60.17%, down by 0.87% week-on-week [4]. Inventory - Port inventory has seen a slight decrease, with a total of 138.4947 million tons, down by 0.02 million tons [6]. - The average daily dispatch from ports has increased to 3.3128 million tons, up by 0.135 million tons week-on-week [6]. - Steel mill imported ore inventory has increased to 89.9305 million tons, up by 5.318 million tons week-on-week [6]. Market Outlook - The iron ore 2601 contract has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with a closing price of 803.5 yuan/ton, up by 7.5 yuan (+0.94%) [2][7]. - The market is expected to remain tight, with a suggested trading range of 780-850 yuan/ton for the iron ore 2601 contract, and a recommendation to buy on dips [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are influenced by weak demand and expected contraction in coal supply. In the short - term, prices are expected to rise due to the impact of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking. Consider short - term long positions, with resistance levels at 3350 yuan for rebar and 3500 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is in a tight - balanced state. Unilateral trading should be viewed with a bullish bias, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract and short on hot - rolled coils in arbitrage [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at a reference range of 1650 - 1800 and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at a reference range of 1070 - 1300 and also conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [6] Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China increased by 30 yuan, 20 yuan, and 40 yuan respectively [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased by 20 yuan, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 23 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 9 yuan, 9 yuan, and 19 yuan respectively [1] Mills - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decline of 0.4% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, a rise of 0.9%. The rebar inventory increased by 13.9 to 653.9, a rise of 2.2% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.1 to 11.8, a rise of 1.0%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 843.3, a rise of 1.9% [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of various iron ore types in Rizhao Port increased slightly. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 10 yuan to 916 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore types decreased significantly [4] Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 816.9 to 3573.1, a rise of 29.6%, while the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3, a decline of 3.5% [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 337.3, a rise of 4.2% [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41, a decline of 0.3%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1, a rise of 0.6% [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 2.8% and 2.5% respectively. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [6] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 4.5% and 3.5% respectively. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 12, a decline of 2.9% [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 43.8 to 861.1, a rise of 5.4% [6] Demand - The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8% [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, a rise of 1.2%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 793.7, a decline of 0.3% [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased by 2.4 to - 3.1, a decline of 75.4% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No information provided 3. Summary Based on Related Content 3.1 Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder was priced at 795, unchanged daily but up 24 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 850.9; PB powder was at 799, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 848.1; Macfarlane powder was at 785, unchanged daily and up 25 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 857.4; Jinbuba powder was at 763, unchanged daily and up 23 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 857.0; mainstream mixed powder was at 745, up 1 daily and 33 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 875.4; super special powder was at 705, unchanged daily and up 29 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 922.2; Roy Hill powder was at 769, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 846.5 [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore was at 820, down 4 daily and up 18 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 835.2; Brazilian coarse IOC6 was at 804, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG was at 809, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate was at 927, up 2 daily and 30 weekly; 61% Indian powder was at 752, unchanged daily and up 23 weekly; Karara concentrate was at 927, up 2 daily and 30 weekly; KUMBA powder was at 858, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly; 57% Indian powder was at 645, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly; Atlas powder was at 740, up 1 daily and 33 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate was at 1004, up 3 daily and 18 weekly [1]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts**: i2601 was at 805.0, unchanged daily and up 28 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 42.5; i2605 was at 781.0, unchanged daily and up 26.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 24.0; i2509 was at 847.5, down 2.5 daily and up 34.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of - 66.5 [1]. - **Singapore Exchange Contracts**: FE01 was at 103.70, up 1.69 daily and 3.73 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 3.05; FE05 was at 101.26, up 1.62 daily and 3.66 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 2.44; FE09 was at 106.75, up 1.50 daily and 3.41 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of - 5.49 [1]. 3.3 Premium and Other Information - **Premium**: Information on PB block/block ore premium, Ukrainian ball/ball pellet premium was presented in the form of charts, but specific data was not detailed in the text [1]. - **Import Profit**: Import profits of different iron ore varieties were provided, such as Newman powder's import profit was - 36.82, PB powder's was - 15.30, etc. [1]