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数据来源：MYSTEEL 免责 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及 建议内容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信 息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货 交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。 未经我司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬 件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系 统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 声明 15 20 25 30 35 40 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 5 7 9 11 13 15 1 ...

铁矿石日报 2025 年 08 月 21 日 大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 772.5 | 769.0 | 3.5 | I01-I05 | 24.5 | 22.0 | 2.5 | | DCE05 | 748.0 | 747.0 | 1.0 | I05-I09 | -43.0 | -39.0 | -4.0 | | DCE09 | 791.0 | 786.0 | 5.0 | I09-I01 | 18.5 | 17.0 | 1.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉 | 767 | 768 | -1 | 808 | 31 | 53 | 14 | | 纽曼粉 | 762 | 763 | -1 | 814 | 37 | 59 | 20 | | 麦克粉 | 754 | 756 | -2 | 817 | 40 | 62 | 23 | | 金布巴 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly offers data on iron ore futures, spot prices, spreads, and import profits. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Prices - DCE01 decreased from 771.0 to 769.0, a drop of 2.0; DCE05 fell from 749.5 to 747.0, a decline of 2.5; DCE09 declined from 789.0 to 786.0, a decrease of 3.0 [2] - I01 - I05 increased from 21.5 to 22.0, a rise of 0.5; I05 - I09 increased from -39.5 to -39.0, a rise of 0.5; I09 - I01 decreased from 18.0 to 17.0, a drop of 1.0 [2] Spot Prices - PB powder decreased from 770 to 768, a drop of 2; Newman powder decreased from 764 to 763, a decline of 1; Mac powder decreased from 761 to 756, a decrease of 5 [2] - The optimal deliverable is PB powder with a price of 809 after deducting the 8 yuan/ton warehouse - out fee [2] Spot Price Spreads - The spread of Carajás fines - PB powder increased from 105 to 109, a rise of 4; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder decreased from 21 to 20, a decline of 1; Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder increased from 132 to 134, a rise of 2 [2] Import Profits - Carajás fines' import profit increased from -26 to -23, a rise of 3; Newman powder's import profit remained at 0; PB powder's import profit decreased from -5 to -6, a drop of 1 [2] Index Prices - The Platts Iron Ore 62% price decreased from 101.1 to 100.8, a drop of 0.3; the Platts Iron Ore 65% price decreased from 118.6 to 118.3, a decline of 0.3; the Platts Iron Ore 58% price decreased from 89.2 to 88.8, a decrease of 0.4 [2][4] 内外盘美金价差 - SGX主力 - DCE01 decreased from 7.7 to 7.5, a drop of 0.2; SGX主力 - DCE05 decreased from 10.4 to 10.2, a decline of 0.3; SGX主力 - DCE09 decreased from 5.4 to 5.2, a decrease of 0.2 [2][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Prices - DCE01 decreased from 772.0 to 771.0, a drop of 1.0; DCE05 decreased from 750.0 to 749.5, a drop of 0.5; DCE09 decreased from 790.0 to 789.0, a drop of 1.0 [2] - I01 - I05 decreased from 22.0 to 21.5, a drop of 0.5; I05 - I09 increased from -40.0 to -39.5, an increase of 0.5; I09 - I01 remained unchanged at 18.0 [2] Spot Prices - Most spot prices showed a downward trend, such as PB powder decreased from 772 to 770, a drop of 2; Newman powder remained unchanged at 764; Mac powder decreased from 763 to 761, a drop of 2 [2] - The optimal deliverable was PB powder, with a converted standard product price of 811, 01 factory - warehouse basis of 31, 05 factory - warehouse basis of 53, and 09 factory - warehouse basis of 13 [2] Spot Variety Spreads - The spread between Carajás fines and PB powder decreased from 112 to 105, a drop of 7; the spread between Newman powder and Jimbuck decreased from 19 to 21, an increase of 2; the spread between Carajás fines and Jimbuck decreased from 139 to 132, a drop of 7 [2] Import Profits - The import profit of Carajás fines decreased from -26 to -26, a decrease of 1; the import profit of Newman powder increased from -5 to 0, an increase of 5; the import profit of PB powder increased from -9 to -5, an increase of 4 [2] Platts Index - The Platts 62% iron ore price decreased from 101.8 to 101.1, a decrease of 0.8; the Platts 65% iron ore price decreased from 119.6 to 118.6, a decrease of 1.1; the Platts 58% iron ore price decreased from 89.6 to 89.2, a decrease of 0.4 [2] Domestic and Foreign US Dollar Spreads - The spread between SGX main contract and DCE01 remained unchanged at 7.7; the spread between SGX main contract and DCE05 increased from 10.3 to 10.4, an increase of 0.2; the spread between SGX main contract and DCE09 decreased from 5.7 to 5.4, a decrease of 0.3 [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report concludes that from a fundamental perspective, there has been an increase in both shipments and arrivals this period. Shipments from Australia have steadily recovered, while there are significant increases in shipments from Brazil and non-mainstream mines, leading to increased overall supply pressure. On the demand side, the current pig iron output is 240.7 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.34 million tons, and it is expected to continue a slight upward trend in the next period. Overall demand remains at a high level but fluctuates. The production restrictions in the north before September 3 will have a phased impact on demand, so attention should be paid to relevant production restriction policies. In summary, after the basis of iron ore narrows, there is clearly insufficient upward momentum. In the short term, the spot and futures prices may continue to fluctuate and adjust, and the basis may strengthen. It is expected that the 01 contract will fluctuate between 90 - 100 US dollars [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals and Conclusions - **Price**: Last week, the prices of mainstream iron ore spot products showed slight fluctuations. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 6, while PB fines decreased by 6. As of August 15, the Platts 62% index closed at $101.8, up $0.3 week-on-week, equivalent to approximately 851 yuan after currency conversion. The optimal deliverable product is Newman fines, with a current price of around 767 yuan/ton, and the converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) is around 792 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract is at a discount to the spot [6]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China has increased week-on-week but is lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week-on-week, a decrease of 12.29 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 12.71 million tons lower than the same period last year. Considering the unloading end, the arrivals are expected to decline; from the demand side, the pig iron output has slightly increased, and the average daily port clearance volume has increased. It is predicted that the overall unloading and warehousing volume at 47 ports in the next period may be lower than the outbound volume, and the port inventory may slightly decrease [6]. - **Supply** - **Shipments**: The total global iron ore shipments this period are 34.066 million tons, an increase of 3.595 million tons week-on-week. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil are 26.697 million tons, an increase of 2.419 million tons week-on-week. Australia's shipments are 16.042 million tons, an increase of 0.238 million tons week-on-week, of which the volume shipped to China is 13.475 million tons, a decrease of 0.181 million tons week-on-week. Brazil's shipments are 10.655 million tons, an increase of 2.181 million tons week-on-week [7]. - **Arrivals**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China are 27.031 million tons, an increase of 1.315 million tons week-on-week; the total arrivals at 45 ports are 24.766 million tons, an increase of 0.947 million tons week-on-week; and the total arrivals at six northern ports are 12.525 million tons, an increase of 0.495 million tons week-on-week [7]. - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills has increased this period, reaching 240.66 million tons per day, an increase of 0.34 million tons per day compared to last week, 0.54 million tons per day higher than the beginning of the year, and 11.89 million tons per day higher than the same period last year. One new blast furnace is under maintenance this period, located in the Northeast region, due to weakening downstream demand for finished products. It is expected to last until the end of the month. Blast furnaces that resumed production in the previous cycle have gradually reached full production this week, so the pig iron output has slightly increased. According to the blast furnace start - up and shutdown plans, the pig iron output may continue to increase slightly in the next period. As of August 15, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China is 3134.5 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of around 138 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils is around 225.5 yuan. In the electric furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China (according to Fubao) is around 3368 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost is around 3240 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China is around - 138 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit is around - 10 yuan [8]. 3.2 Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price**: Details of the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and converted factory warehouse receipt prices of various iron ore varieties are provided. The optimal deliverable product is Newman fines at 792 yuan, and the second - best is PB fines at 803 yuan [14]. - **Iron Ore Inter - period Spreads**: As of August 15, the spread between the 09 and 01 iron ore contracts closed at 16 (- 0.5) [17]. - **Iron Ore Import Profits**: No specific data analysis is provided in the report. - **High - Low Grade Price Spreads**: No specific data analysis is provided in the report. - **Premium Index**: As of August 14, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore is 0.18 (- 0.005), and the premium index for 65% pellet ore is 16 (-) [27]. - **Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory**: Data on the inventory of various iron ore brands (such as Mac fines, PB fines, etc.) at 15 ports and their historical trends are presented, along with information on brand premiums and discounts [30]. - **Steel Mill Sinter Fines Inventory**: As of August 15, the imported sinter fines inventory of 64 sample steel mills is 1318, an increase of 43.0 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 3.37%. The domestic sinter fines inventory is 8, a decrease of 0.8 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.84%. The average days of imported ore inventory survey is 2, an increase of 1.0 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 5.00% [33]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption**: As of August 15, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9136.4, an increase of 123.06 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.37%. The daily consumption of imported ore is 298.5, an increase of 0.38 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. The inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore is 30.6, an increase of 0.38 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.26% [36]. - **Port Inventory and Berthing Vessels**: Data on the total port inventory (45 ports), berthing vessel numbers, and the inventory of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores at ports are presented, along with their historical trends [39]. - **Port Inventory by Ore Type**: As of August 15, the inventory of imported lump ore at ports is 1688, a decrease of 2 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. The inventory of imported pellet ore is 325, a decrease of 12 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.60%. The inventory of imported iron concentrate is 1095, a decrease of 19 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%. The inventory of imported coarse ore is 10712, an increase of 140 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.33% [42]. - **Port Clearance**: Historical data on port clearance volumes from 2020 - 2025 are provided [45]. - **Iron Ore In - Transit Volume**: Data on the in - transit volume of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream sources to China are presented, along with their historical trends [47]. - **Iron Ore Import Quantities**: Data on the import quantities of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries are presented, along with their historical trends [51]. - **Australian Iron Ore Shipments**: The monthly average shipment volume to the world and to China from Australia, as well as the proportion of shipments to China, are provided. As of August 15, the shipment volume from Australia to China is 1348, a decrease of 18 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The total shipment volume from Australia is 1604, an increase of 23.9 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The proportion of shipments to China is 84.00%, a decrease of 2.4% from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.80% [60]. - **Brazilian Iron Ore Shipments**: The monthly average shipment volume to the world from Brazil is provided. As of August 15, the shipment volume from Brazil to the world is 1066, an increase of 218 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 25.74% [65]. - **Shipment Volumes of the Four Major Mines**: The shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale, and Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) to China are presented. Compared to August 8, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto decreased by 90 (- 15.41%), BHP Billiton decreased by 18 (- 4.39%), Vale increased by 220 (38.85%), and FMG decreased by 22 (- 8.25%). The total shipment volume increased by 90 (4.88%) [67]. - **Iron Ore Arrivals**: As of August 15, the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2477, an increase of 95 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.0%. The arrival volume at northern ports is 1253, an increase of 50 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.1% [74]. - **Freight Rates**: Historical data on the freight rates of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarão to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao from 2020 - 2025 are provided [76]. - **Domestic Ore Production (Estimated)**: The production and inventory data of iron concentrate from domestic mines are presented. As of August 15, the production of iron concentrate from mines is 78.9, an increase of 3.3 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.37%. The inventory of iron concentrate from mines is 35, a decrease of 2 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.18% [78]. - **Steel Mill Fines Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization**: The average daily consumption of imported and domestic sinter fines by 247 steel mills, as well as the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, are presented. As of August 15, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.2, an increase of 0.13 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14%. The average daily consumption of imported sinter fines is 61.2, a decrease of 0.39 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.63%. The average daily consumption of domestic sinter fines is 8.7, an increase of 0.46 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 5.60% [80]. - **Pig Iron Production**: The daily average pig iron production data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association are presented, along with historical trends and year - on - year comparisons [86]. - **Global Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China are presented, along with historical trends [89]. - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production data of regions outside China are presented, along with historical trends and year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons [94].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - No relevant content provided Group 3: Summary of Iron Ore Spot Data - **Australian mainstream iron ore**: Newman powder price is 767 with no daily or weekly change, PB powder price is 772 with a daily increase of 1 and a weekly increase of 2, Macfarlane powder price is 763 with a daily increase of 1 and a weekly increase of 3, etc [1] - **Brazilian mainstream iron ore**: Ba Hun price is 810 with a daily increase of 3 and a weekly increase of 1, Ba Coarse IOC6 price is 764 with a daily increase of 1 and a weekly increase of 4 [1] - **Other regions' iron ore**: Ukrainian fine powder price is 876 with a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly increase of 11, 61% Indian powder price is 733 with a daily increase of 1 and a weekly increase of 2 [1] - **Domestic iron ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate price is 977 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 19 [1] Group 4: Summary of Iron Ore Futures Data - **DCE contracts**: i2601 price is 776.0 with a daily increase of 1.0 and a weekly increase of 2.5, i2605 price is 755.5 with a daily increase of 2.5 and a weekly increase of 2.5, i2509 price is 792.0 with a daily increase of 1.0 and a weekly increase of 2.0 [1] - **SGX contracts**: FE01 price is 101.24 with a daily decrease of 1.44 and a weekly decrease of 0.82, FE05 price is 98.80 with a daily decrease of 1.60 and a weekly decrease of 1.24, FE09 price is 102.09 with a daily decrease of 1.42 and a weekly decrease of 0.16 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on various iron ore varieties, including spot prices, daily and weekly changes, import profits, and futures contract information. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 767, with a daily change of -14 and a weekly change of -2; PB powder price is 771, with a daily change of -13 and a weekly change of -2; etc. [1] - **Brazilian Iron Ore**: Ba Hun price is 807, with a daily change of -15 and a weekly change of -5; Ba Cu IOC6 price is 763, with a daily change of -11 and a weekly change of 0; etc. [1] - **Other Regions' Iron Ore**: Ukrainian concentrate powder price is 877, with a daily change of -11 and a weekly change of 11; 61% Indian powder price is 732, with a daily change of -15 and a weekly change of -2; etc. [1] - **Domestic Iron Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder price is 977, with a daily change of -6 and a weekly change of 19. [1] Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 price is 775.0, with a daily change of -20.0 and a weekly change of 0.5; i2605 price is 753.0, with a daily change of -21.0 and a weekly change of 0.5; i2509 price is 791.0, with a daily change of -14.5 and a weekly change of -2.0. [1] - **New Exchange Contracts**: FE01 price is 102.68, with a daily change of -1.26 and a weekly change of 0.77; FE05 price is 100.40, with a daily change of -1.36 and a weekly change of 0.54; FE09 price is 103.51, with a daily change of -0.92 and a weekly change of 1.71. [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 781, down 2 from the previous day and up 9 for the week; PB powder is at 784, down 3 and up 8; Mac powder is at 774, down 1 and up 9; Jinbuba powder is at 758, down 3 and up 9; Mixed powder is at 708, down 5 and up 8; Super special powder is at 658, down 4 and up 8; Carajás powder is at 888, unchanged and up 8 [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed powder is at 822, up 1 and up 19; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is at 774, down 3 and up 8; Brazilian coarse SSFG is at 779, down 3 and up 8 [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate is at 888, down 2 and up 20; 61% Indian powder is at 747, down 3 and up 9; Karara concentrate is at 888, down 2 and up 20; Roy Hill powder is at 754, down 3 and up 8; KUMBA powder is at 844, down 3 and up 8; 57% Indian powder is at 603, down 4 and up 8; Atlas powder is at 703, down 5 and up 8 [1]. - **Domestic Iron Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate is at 983, unchanged and up 31 [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is at 795.0, down 6.0 and up 17.5; i2605 is at 774.0, down 5.5 and up 19.5; i2509 is at 805.5, down 2.0 and up 11.0 [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is at 103.94, up 0.77 and up 1.71; FE05 is at 101.76, up 0.64 and up 1.61; FE09 is at 104.43, up 0.93 and up 1.96 [1]. Other Information - **Import Profits**: Import profits vary for different iron ore varieties, such as -28.43 for Newman powder, -10.91 for PB powder, etc. [1] - **Monthly Spreads**: For DCE contracts, the monthly spreads of i2601, i2605, and i2509 are 10.5, 21.0, and -31.5 respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 783, up 8 daily and 8 weekly; PB powder is 787, up 9 daily and 7 weekly; Mac powder is 775, up 8 daily and 8 weekly; etc. Import profits vary, e.g., Newman powder has an import profit of -32.80 [1]. - **Brazilian Iron Ore**: Ba - mix price is 821, up 9 daily and 18 weekly; Ba - coarse IOC6 is 777, up 9 daily and 7 weekly; etc. [1]. - **Other Regions' Iron Ore**: Ukraine concentrate powder is 890, up 12 daily and 20 weekly; 61% Indian powder is 750, up 9 daily and 8 weekly; etc. [1]. - **Domestic Iron Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 983, up 12 daily and 44 weekly [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 price is 801.0, up 12.0 daily and 23.0 weekly; i2605 is 779.5, up 11.5 daily and 25.0 weekly; i2509 is 807.5, up 11.0 daily and 9.0 weekly. Month - to - month spreads also change, e.g., i2601's month - to - month spread is 6.5, with a daily change of 31.8 and a weekly change of - 7.0 [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 price is 103.17, up 1.41 daily and 2.15 weekly; FE05 is 101.12, up 1.53 daily and 2.22 weekly; FE09 is 103.50, up 1.40 daily and 2.00 weekly [1].