Workflow
金穗银利多
icon
Search documents
多家大中型银行存款利率倒挂 如何存钱更划算?
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-03-13 02:33
Core Viewpoint - The recent phenomenon of long-term deposit rates being lower than short-term rates, known as "inversion," has spread to major domestic banks in China, indicating a market consensus on the expectation of declining interest rates [1][2][4]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Inversion - Major banks such as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and CITIC Bank are experiencing deposit rate inversion, with China Merchants Bank showing a rare case where a 5-year deposit yields less than a 1-year deposit [1][3]. - The 5-year fixed deposit annual interest rate at China Merchants Bank is 1.55%, while the 1-year rate is 1.60%, and the 3-year rate is 1.95% [3][8]. - State-owned banks are primarily seeing 5-year rates lower than 3-year rates, with China Construction Bank offering 1.55% for 5-year deposits compared to 1.90% for 3-year deposits [3][8]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Market participants expect that interest rates will continue to decline in the near future, reinforcing the trend of deposit rate inversion among large and medium-sized banks [4][9]. - Analysts suggest that the inversion reflects three key issues: strengthening expectations of rate cuts, increasing difficulty for banks to maintain net interest margins, and a general lack of effective demand for bank credit [4][9]. Group 3: Implications for Investors - Investors are advised to lower their expectations for investment returns and consider a diversified investment strategy that includes insurance products and various financial products with different liquidity and risk profiles [5][10][11]. - The "staggered saving method" is recommended, where funds are divided into multiple deposits of different terms (1, 2, and 3 years) to enhance liquidity and capture higher interest rates while mitigating future rate decline risks [6][11].