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苹果周报:嘎啦价格偏硬,果价震荡为主-20250822
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 13:35
Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided Core Views of the Report - The price of Gala apples is relatively firm, and the apple price mainly fluctuates. The new - season early - maturing Gala apples have uneven quality this year, with a limited proportion of good - quality and large fruits, and the prices are polarized. The overall purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is acceptable. The trading volume in the South China and East China markets has increased this week, and the early - maturing apple arrivals are gradually increasing. The market prefers high - redness premium apples. The inventory in Shandong is moving slowly, and fruit farmers are gradually reducing prices for sales. [6] - As of August 21, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 3.06%, with a decrease of 0.44 percentage points in this period and 2.61 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The destocking rate is 95.19%. With the increase of early - maturing apples, the destocking speed of inventory has been affected to some extent, and the sales speed has slowed down slightly compared with last week. [11] - The early - morning arrival of vehicles at the Chalong market in Guangdong has slightly increased compared with last week. The market is still mainly supplied with Fuji apples, and the early - maturing Gala apples are increasing. The terminal sales speed is not fast, with good - quality apples being digested well and poor - quality apples slowly. The arrival volume in the market is still lower than the same period of previous years, but it is expected to continue to increase later. [14] - The new - season apple production is expected to change little compared with this season. Recently, the price of early - maturing apples has weakened, putting pressure on the market. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate widely in the short term. [16] Summary by Directory 1. Apple Spot Analysis - This week, early - maturing apple varieties continued to increase in volume. The new - season early - maturing Gala apples in northern Shaanxi were on the market, with uneven quality. The overall purchasing enthusiasm of merchants was acceptable. The inventory in Shandong was moving slowly, and fruit farmers were reducing prices. The main producing areas had different price ranges for different apple grades. [6] 2. Supply Analysis - As of August 21, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 3.06%, with a decrease of 0.44 percentage points in this period and 2.61 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The destocking rate was 95.19%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 5.26%, with a decrease of 0.59 percentage points, and the shipment was slower than last week. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi was 2.65%, with a decrease of 0.49 percentage points, and the overall shipment showed an increasing trend. As of August 20, 2025, the national main - producing area cold - storage inventory was 39.45 tons, a decrease of 6.56 tons from last week. [11] 3. Demand Analysis - The early - morning arrival of vehicles at the Chalong market in Guangdong slightly increased compared with last week. The market was still mainly supplied with Fuji apples, and early - maturing Gala apples were increasing. The terminal sales speed was not fast, with good - quality apples being digested well and poor - quality apples slowly. The arrival volume in the market was still lower than the same period of previous years, but it is expected to continue to increase later. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on August 21 decreased slightly compared with last Friday, and was at the median of the same period in recent years. The profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia from 2024 - 2025 remained the same as last week. [14] 4. Trading Strategy - For options, it is recommended to wait and see. For single - side trading, the new - season apple production is expected to change little compared with this season. Recently, the price of early - maturing apples has weakened, putting pressure on the market. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate widely. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. [15][16] 5. Apple Supply and Demand Situation - No specific analysis text provided, only relevant charts are shown, including apple export, planting area, consumption, production, etc. [20] 6. Inventory and Shipment - No new analysis text provided, only relevant charts are shown, including national cold - storage inventory, national shipment volume, Shandong cold - storage inventory, and Shaanxi cold - storage inventory. [23] 7. Spread and Basis - The text provides the closing prices, price changes, and basis information of different apple futures contracts and spot prices, as well as the basis trends of different months in different years. [26] 8. Spot and Futures Prices - The text provides the current prices, previous trading - day prices, and price changes of the Fuji apple price index, spot prices of different producing areas, and average wholesale prices of 6 kinds of fruits. [27]