机床刀具研究：刀具经销商行业交流 20251123 摘要 2025 年上半年，公司在新能源汽车和军工领域业绩稳步增长，成功替 代了部分欧美、日本品牌市场份额，尤其在成都地区替代了三菱和京瓷 等品牌。 自 2025 年 8 月起，受钨粉价格暴涨（年初至今涨幅超一倍，达 775 元 以上）影响，公司面临出货不足和库存紧张问题，钨钢铣刀价格也翻倍， 数控刀片涨价 50%-60%。 当前市场环境下，资金充足的大型经销商通过提前备货应对涨价，而小 型经销商因资金有限面临经营压力，行业集中度进一步提高。 刀具行业面临原材料短缺和价格上涨双重压力，广东地区钨钢铣刀价格 已涨至 6.5-7 元/只，且仍短缺，小型工厂停产，大型工厂订单饱满但控 制订单量，等待进一步涨价。 公司有意识地压缩订单以控制出货速度，维持约三个月库存，预计 2026 年 1 月 1 日后全面涨价，下游客户已接受此预期。 刀具行业需求主要来自汽车、新能源、风电和军工等领域，这些领域订 单稳步增加，新兴行业如机器人制造和减速机加工也增加刀具使用量。 小型工厂停产导致市场供给减少，加剧供需紧张局面。大型制造商通过 控制出货速度和接单数量，坚持现金支付和较高定 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference discusses the tungsten tool industry, specifically focusing on the price surge of tungsten steel milling cutters since July 2025, which has doubled in price, marking an unprecedented situation in the speaker's 20 years of experience [1][3][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Increases**: Tungsten steel milling cutters have seen price increases of 60%-70%, while CNC blades have increased by 25%-30%. An additional rise of approximately 20% is expected in November 2025, leading to overall increases of 50%-60% [1][11]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The market has experienced significant changes in supply and demand, with small manufacturers forced to exit due to high costs and procurement difficulties. Large manufacturers benefit from their financial stability and raw material reserves [1][3][11]. - **Market Shortages**: A shortage began at the end of August 2025, peaking in early September. Many small factories halted production, while large factories controlled shipment volumes, leading to a tight supply chain [1][5][8]. - **Inventory Challenges**: Wholesalers face tight inventory levels due to the inability to replenish stock amid rising prices and cash payment requirements from manufacturers [4][10]. - **End-User Behavior**: Downstream customers exhibit both rigid demand and stockpiling behavior in anticipation of further price increases. The overall competition in the tool industry remains strong, particularly in sectors like new energy and automotive [7][27]. Additional Important Content - **Material Price Increases**: The price of tungsten powder has risen from 318 RMB/kg to 630 RMB/kg, with expectations to reach 850 RMB/kg due to government restrictions on production quotas [2][33]. - **Impact of Government Policies**: The Chinese government has classified tungsten as a strategic material, implementing strict production quotas that have reduced output by 6.8% compared to the previous year [34][35]. - **Market Trends**: The demand for tools is expected to rise due to increased automotive production, stable wind power projects, and a trend towards domestic substitution. However, rough processing businesses are struggling, leading to the exit of small hard alloy manufacturers from the general products market [1][12][30]. - **Future Growth Expectations**: The tool industry is projected to grow steadily over the next couple of years, driven by the exit of small manufacturers and increased demand in sectors such as new energy vehicles, military, and wind power [26][27]. Conclusion - The tungsten tool industry is currently facing significant challenges due to rising material costs, supply shortages, and government regulations. However, the overall demand is expected to grow, particularly in key sectors, providing potential investment opportunities for larger manufacturers while posing risks for smaller players in the market.